I'm fairly certain the Steelers wouldn't be chanting "We Dey!" had Carson Palmer not gotten hurt. And it wasn't just his arm... that team tried hard to convince themselves that they could win without Palmer, but once they hit some adversity they folded.
I'll admit, I slept on the Panthers. But I'm still not buying them. I think they were somewhat lucky in walloping the Giants. Tiki Barber wasn't seeing the holes he had been getting all year, and Eli Manning withered in his first playoff game. I can only hope that the Skins win and they get as fortunate against the Bears. Then the Redskins would be in Carolina for the NFC Championship. Unfortunately, my picks might reflect this hope in the reverse karma way...
Now about those chances here are two lists. First, Things I don't like the Redskins' chances on Saturday:
- The fact that the Redskins barely beat the Seahawks at FedEx Field back in October. The Skins got their revenge on Tampa, we'll see about the Seahawks...
- The Redskins aren't all that good on the road. Although, including last week, they are a somewhat respectable 5-4, two were come from behind 4th quarter wins (Philly and Dallas). They had problems finishing off comebacks in Denver, Kansas City and Tampa.
- Probably the most important point: Home teams in the divisional rounds win about 80% of the time.
Things I like about the Redskins' chances on Saturday:
- The Redskins barely won that game at FedEx and when you barely win, you should treat it like a loss and feel lucky. You should seriously rethink your plan and innovate. Fortunately, Gregg Williams is more than capable of this. His defense seems to do well when it has an opportunity to adjust. The Redskins did much better in their second games against the Cowboys and Giants and, in fact, they're 4-0 in rematch games.
- The Seahawks are overrated. They played 5 teams with winning records: losing 2 of those games (to Jacksonville and the Redskins); winning 2 games that were handed to them against Dallas and New York (both in Seattle) when Dallas' Drew Bledsoe threw a last minute interception and New York's Jay Feely missed 3 makeable field goals. And they beat a Colts team that had nothing to play for and sat their best players for most of the game.
- Although everyone is pointing out that the Seahawks are 8-0 at home here is a list of those opponents: Atlanta, Arizona, Houston, Dallas, St. Louis, NY Giants, San Francisco, and Indianapolis. Aside from Dallas, NY and Indy (which I just discussed) the other teams were a combined 25-55.
- The Skins might not have been good on the road, but the past two weeks they have come from behind and held on to leads in must win situations. Two things they were having problems with early in the mid-season.
- It seems like NO ONE thinks the Skins have a chance.
And finally to the picks:
at Seattle OVER Redskins - I can't change my tune now can I?
at Denver OVER New England - I want to be among those that think New England shouldn't be picked against, but I can't bring myself to think that. Denver is a good team especially at home. New England has been a good playoff team, but they've had most of those games at home. Anyways this is my iffy game. I'm just not sure.
at Indianapolis OVER Pittsburgh - This is my non-iffy game. I'm am too sure about this one. First, Indy beat Pittsburgh well back in November. Plus, Pittsburgh got fortunate against the Bengals. Finally, remember how I haven't been convinced by Pittsburgh all year?
at Chicago OVER Carolina - Carolina's wins against Atlanta and New York are making people believe they are the team that deserved to be on the cover of Sports Illustrated as that magazine's pick to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season. Well, I pretty sure they played in the NFC South, and had losses to New Orleans, Miami (when they were still iffy), and Tampa and Dallas (at home). That last loss? A 13-3 loss at home to the Bears.
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