Mmmm... Football Donuts and the Super Bowl pick.

As if staying away from their delicious donuts (i think they spell it doughnuts tho) isn't hard enough, Krispy Kreme is making football shaped and decorated donuts. AND you can get them in team colors... those horrible horrible people. I'm rediculous enough to want them in Skins color.

First, just to clarify one point which I've been making: I don't think the Steelers are a bad team. In fact, I have never thought they were a bad team, the ONLY thing I ever did was questioned their offense. It doesn't detract from them when I said they have been lucky... it's just the truth: they were fortunate to not have to play against Carson Palmer and they were fortunate Nick Harper ran right at Ben Roethlisberger after Jerome Bettis' fumble.

This week they played excellent, probably their best game of the season, AND they were lucky. (Most of the time when team A blows out team b, luck is involved. That's not to say team A couldn't have won otherwise, but luck made a blowout easier.)

The Steelers were helped to a comparatively easy win as Jake Plummer reverted to his usual self. The Broncos had a chance to win it all, if they relied on the run and had Plummer pull a "Trent Dilfer" (throw for 150 yards, one touchdown and NO turnovers). Instead, Jake Plummer pulled a "Jake Plummer" (223 yards, 2 interceptions and 2 fumbles). I guess he was right when, after a win against the Redskins where he threw for 92 yards, he dismissed his performance by saying, "Later in the season, you don't remember how they came, you only remember it's a win." True, they might not remember how that win came, but they will rememeber how this loss came... both in games Plummer let his team down.

So now the Steelers move on to play the Seattle Seahawks. My initial feelings are that I would like Seattle to win, because they haven't won one and the Steelers have won 4. But, my pick is:

Pittsburgh Steeler OVER Seattle Seahawks - This should be a close game but I get the feeling it won't be close in the end (maybe close on the scoreboard but not in reality). The Steelers should take the lead early (7-0), maybe allow a tie in 2nd period (17-17), and hit a field goal going into halftime (20-17). Then they'll come out maybe give up a TD (20-24) early in the 3rd, but make it up with 2 TD in the 3rd and 4th (34-24), and control Seattle's offense for most of the 4th quarter, maybe giving up a field goal... 34-27. Is my entirely unfounded guess.

NFL Conference Championships and the Redskins are done

So after 6 straight weeks, I finally got a Redskins pick right. The Redskins finished their season in a rather familiar way. The defense starts off well while the offense struggles, the defense finally cracks and the offense eventually starts to click but it turns out to be not enough and too late. As cliched as it sounds, it was a microcosm of the season.

I would say it was a disappointing end, but that would detract from a pretty darn good season. Although I thought the Redskins were a 10 win team back in September (In fact, I said: "Now I'm not saying the Redskins are going 11-5 this season, but I seriously don't think 10-6 is out of the question"), I was still surprised when they rattled off 5 wins at the end of the season to get into the playoffs. It was fun to say the least.

So they finished in the top 8 and did better than the Bears and Colts (at least the Skins got 1 playoff win... on the road even) and did about as well as Patriots (but the Redskins didn't get the advantage of a home playoff game). So in my book they're at least the 6th best team in the league. And I don't want to hear any talk about the 120 yards of offense in the win against the Bucs, they were heavily depleted and injured from those grueling 5 straight wins. Plus they weren't playing to rack up points, they were playing to keep a lead.

Which brings me to the addition of Al Saunders to the coaching staff. I'm hesitant because I am a strong believer in the idea of less chefs in the kitchen, but what has me believing is Joe Gibbs. I trust that he can keep everything (and everyone) in check.

Anyways more on that later... now on to the teams that remain in the Super Bowl picture:

Pittsburgh Steelers - First I need to repeat what everyone has already said: The Steelers were royally screwed by the botched instant replay call and had they lost that game, they would have every right to stab someone. Having said that... I still (and I've been saying this all year, just check the link above) question the Steeler's offense. That offense combined with a good/great defense won them the game at Indy, but the Colts were obviously not the same team that won 13 straight. They were the same team that has a history of choking in the playoffs. Plus the week before that, they got "lucky" when Carson Palmer got hurt.

Denver Broncos - The Broncos are another one of those teams that I've questioned all year. Although while I did a Top 10, I usually had them in the top 3 or 4, I still called them "not all that good." (Like when they beat the Redskins, but that was more of a response to how they played against the Skins.) But my misgivings about the Broncos aren't as much as they are about the Steelers.

Carolina Panthers - I'll admit, I have slept on the Panthers all year. I had only seen them play in highlight shows (I don't remember if I saw them in their MNF appearance), so I knew they had Steve Smith but the rest of the team seemed pedestrian. Plus, they were in a division I felt was weak because there was no clear good/great team. In fact, every team seemed just below average. So Tampa Bay and Atlanta proved to be that, but the Panthers have stepped it up. The only thing is that they've been pretty fortunate in these playoffs. The Giants (who should have been a formidable opponent) layed down for them, and then they had to go to play a weak Chicago Bears team from what was, I thought, the worst division in the NFC.

Seattle Seahawks - I saw the Seahawks and Bears play the Skins back in September, and it was CLEAR the Seahawks were a better team. The Bears defense wasn't as good as people would later say, and the Seahawks offense was about as good as billed. So although, record-wise, they started off bad, I thought they were a good team. (Actually both the Bears and Seahawks fatten up their records on weak opponents, but the Bears had a tougher time of it.)

So here are my picks:

at Denver OVER Pittsburgh - As I said, my misgivings about Denver aren't as big as they are about Pittsburgh. Everyone loves saying that Pittsburgh is the "hottest" team in the NFL because of their 6 game winning streak, but no one says in the next sentence that Denver has their own 5 game winning streak. As I have mentioned Pittsburgh, like the Panthers, have gotten lucky on the road. First Carson Palmer's leg gets broken, along with the Bengals fragile hopes and then the Colts choke away a gift from the NFL refs and then Jerome Bettis.

at Seattle OVER Carolina - I'll say it one more time... the Panthers have gotten lucky in the playoffs. And I don't mean "lucky the other team fumbled" or "lucky they won on a Hail Mary." I mean lucky their opponents haven't been playoff quality, either because of a young QB (Giants) or just not a good team in general (Bears). Seattle didn't exactly inspire me in their win against the Skins, but they moved the ball on a good defense.

Finally, the only thing that scares me about these picks? Oddly the Panthers and Steelers are better road teams then home teams... they were both 5-3 at home and 6-2 (8-2 including the playoffs) on the road. They both had the best road records in the league. But hey, Seattle and Denver were the only teams that went undefeated at home? Sounds like fun to me...

Alexander Ovechkin should win the Hart Trophy

Remember in Rocky IV when Apollo Creed fought Ivan Drago. Drago's first words in the movie were right before they fought. In a thick Russian accent, he said "I will break you." I think they need to play that clip every time they mention Alexander Ovechkin at the MCI Center.

Ovechkin had his first NHL hat trick last night, scoring all of the Capitals goals in a 3-2 overtime win against the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. He now ranks 3rd in goals and 8th in points and leads his team in both categories. Ovechkin could certainly have more assists if he had someone to assist. (There is only one other player with double digit goals: Danius Zubrus with 10).

Nothing against The Kid, Sidney Crosby, but he's not near Ovechkin. The Russian has to have Rookie of the Year (Calder Memorial Trophy) wrapped up. Now, it's just a matter of if Ovechkin deserves the NHL MVP and I, as an unabashed homer, think he does. Unfortunately, unless your team at least makes the playoffs, you probably won't be winning the Hart Trophy. But, I can hope can't I?

Where is the real Brokeback Mountain and a new view of Heath Ledger

I finally saw Brokeback Mountain and got curious as to if it really existed. I looked it up and found that someone had already researched it. To sum it up: It's not real. The author of the short story, Annie Proulx, (who btw seems a little full of herself) says the name is adapted from a place called Break Back Mountain in Wyoming, but the Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) says there aint such a thing. There is, however, a Brokenback Narrows, Creek, and Dam, a Brokenback Mountain near there doesn't seem far-fetched.

About the movie: I liked it. I thought it was a very good movie that, unfortunately, didn't live up to the hype. I had heard good things about it. Things that I was hoping weren't influenced by the controversial topic and the ensuing controversy about the movie (like the canceled screenings in Utah). Those things might have influenced the good reviews but nonetheless I thought it was par for an Ang Lee movie, good but not outstanding.

What did surprise me was the great job done by Heath Ledger. You see, when I first saw Heath Ledger it was in the modern remake of one my favorite Shakespeare plays, "Ten Things I Hate about You." (Which was based on "The Taming of the Shrew") Sadly that remake was an unabashed teen flick and Ledger overplayed it as would be expected. Then he made "The Patriot" and "A Knight's Tale" and did nothing to change my initial perception of him. So last year when I saw the previews to "Cassanova" my thoughts that he was doomed for "Ryan Phillippe" status (perpetual pretty face in teen flicks... no need to act, just look good) were reinforced.

But Ledger totally surprised me. He played the soft spoken but strong willed Ennis Del Mar convincingly. He didn't overdo the macho "I'm not a gay cowboy" angle. He was certainly not one dimensional and gave Ennis those subtle qualities which can make you forget an actor is acting. Not surprisingly, I have a new found respect for him.

2006 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Playoffs

First a few thoughts about my stupendous 1-3 record for last week. Yes I suck, but allow me to make up some excuses.

I'm fairly certain the Steelers wouldn't be chanting "We Dey!" had Carson Palmer not gotten hurt. And it wasn't just his arm... that team tried hard to convince themselves that they could win without Palmer, but once they hit some adversity they folded.

I'll admit, I slept on the Panthers. But I'm still not buying them. I think they were somewhat lucky in walloping the Giants. Tiki Barber wasn't seeing the holes he had been getting all year, and Eli Manning withered in his first playoff game. I can only hope that the Skins win and they get as fortunate against the Bears. Then the Redskins would be in Carolina for the NFC Championship. Unfortunately, my picks might reflect this hope in the reverse karma way...

Now about those chances here are two lists. First, Things I don't like the Redskins' chances on Saturday:

• The fact that the Redskins barely beat the Seahawks at FedEx Field back in October. The Skins got their revenge on Tampa, we'll see about the Seahawks...
  
• The Redskins aren't all that good on the road. Although, including last week, they are a somewhat respectable 5-4, two were come from behind 4th quarter wins (Philly and Dallas). They had problems finishing off comebacks in Denver, Kansas City and Tampa.
  
• Probably the most important point: Home teams in the divisional rounds win about 80% of the time.
  

Things I like about the Redskins' chances on Saturday:

• The Redskins barely won that game at FedEx and when you barely win, you should treat it like a loss and feel lucky. You should seriously rethink your plan and innovate. Fortunately, Gregg Williams is more than capable of this. His defense seems to do well when it has an opportunity to adjust. The Redskins did much better in their second games against the Cowboys and Giants and, in fact, they're 4-0 in rematch games.
  
• The Seahawks are overrated. They played 5 teams with winning records: losing 2 of those games (to Jacksonville and the Redskins); winning 2 games that were handed to them against Dallas and New York (both in Seattle) when Dallas' Drew Bledsoe threw a last minute interception and New York's Jay Feely missed 3 makeable field goals. And they beat a Colts team that had nothing to play for and sat their best players for most of the game.
  
• Although everyone is pointing out that the Seahawks are 8-0 at home here is a list of those opponents: Atlanta, Arizona, Houston, Dallas, St. Louis, NY Giants, San Francisco, and Indianapolis. Aside from Dallas, NY and Indy (which I just discussed) the other teams were a combined 25-55.
  
• The Skins might not have been good on the road, but the past two weeks they have come from behind and held on to leads in must win situations. Two things they were having problems with early in the mid-season.
  
• It seems like NO ONE thinks the Skins have a chance.
  

And finally to the picks:

at Seattle OVER Redskins - I can't change my tune now can I?

at Denver OVER New England - I want to be among those that think New England shouldn't be picked against, but I can't bring myself to think that. Denver is a good team especially at home. New England has been a good playoff team, but they've had most of those games at home. Anyways this is my iffy game. I'm just not sure.

at Indianapolis OVER Pittsburgh - This is my non-iffy game. I'm am too sure about this one. First, Indy beat Pittsburgh well back in November. Plus, Pittsburgh got fortunate against the Bengals. Finally, remember how I haven't been convinced by Pittsburgh all year?

at Chicago OVER Carolina - Carolina's wins against Atlanta and New York are making people believe they are the team that deserved to be on the cover of Sports Illustrated as that magazine's pick to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season. Well, I pretty sure they played in the NFC South, and had losses to New Orleans, Miami (when they were still iffy), and Tampa and Dallas (at home). That last loss? A 13-3 loss at home to the Bears.

Restaurant Week Winter 2006

It's that time of year again where things have slowed down... and Restaurant Week is here once again.

If you're not familiar with it, just click on the link. In essence, swank restaurants around the city offer pretty good full course meals at a fixed price: Lunch for $20.06 and Dinner for $30.06. Considering how much the places normally run, it's a pretty good deal.

Redskins: sweet revenge

In case you didn't already know (since it's been repeated incessantly all week) the last time the Redskins were in they playoffs they lost to Tampa Bay 14-13, missing a field goal for the win on a bad snap. The last time the Redskins played in Tampa Bay, they lost 36-35 on a 2-point conversion that wasn't. Yeah... that was a nice win. Ugly, as everyone seems to want to point out, but a win nonetheless.

And now I am worried, because the Redskins got lucky to beat the Seahawks back in September. It would definitely give the Seahawks incentive, but I'm hoping that, since few people are giving the Redskins a chance, it will give them some incentive. We can only hope...

The NFL Playoff picks

I don't know what to do. Back when I decided to pick against the Redskins for the rest of the season, I really didn't think they were going to make the playoffs. I BADLY wanted them to make it, I just thought they wouldn't. Now, I almost feel obliged to pick against them again for consistency, for karma... for whatever! Anyways, here are my picks for this weekend's playoff games:

at Tampa Bay OVER Washington - That hurts... I don't really want to say anything more about this game aside from I seriously hope to go 7-4 in the playoffs.

at New England OVER Jacksonville - I spent the entire season talking about how I liked the Jaguars even though they played a soft schedule. Now they're in the playoffs having played ONE significant opponent since mid-october, and they lost that game to the Colts. Before that they had wins against quality teams like Seattle, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, but those were almost 3 months ago. So I'm believing the New England hype even though they've only beaten two good (playoff) teams all year. ATS I would undoubtedly go with Jacksonville though.

at NY Giants OVER Carolina - I don't trust Eli Manning. And I especially don't trust him in his first playoff game. I just don't trust the Panthers even more... you know they're in the NFC South and all. True they probably got screwed by the refs against the Cowboys two weeks ago, but it should never have come to that, especially at home and when it counted.

at Cincinnati OVER Pittsburgh - I hate this pick for many reasons. For one, the Bengals go into this game following back to back regular season ending losses to Buffalo and Kansas City. They had already wrapped up the division, but they were still playing for a first round bye. So it's not like they just shut it down, like the Colts. Also they lost the last time they played the Steelers at home (It almost seems like home field isn't much of an advantage to them). But I'm going with them because of the following: First, remember how I haven't like the Steelers all year? Second, everyone is loving the Steelers because of their 4 game winning streak going in, but they've only had to play one good team (Chicago) in that span. And the last game before that streak? A home loss to Cincinnati... but that also makes me think they're looking for revenge. See now why I hate this pick?

Experimental Music: Longest Concert, ever.

I've always wanted to consider myself open-minded about most things. It really bothers me when supposedly enlightened people (Marilyn vos Savant and her equating Picasso's work to the Emperor's New Clothes always comes to mind) are quick to dismiss things they apparently don't understand. That's not to say I think of myself as "enlightened"... anyways back to the point.

So Nearing 5 years into the world's longest lasting concert, the second chord will sound soon. (just click the link if that doesn't make senses) Now I don't want to dismiss it as a gimmick, but it sure does sound like one. I wouldn't say it isn't art, but when you're notable because you're making the Guiness Book of World Records you really have to question your artistic integrity. If I wanted to make a 1000 by 1000 ft painting/mural would that make me "experimental?" I guess so, but then I don't think being called "experimental" when it comes to art is a good thing.

Peter Jackson and King Kong

I have seen two Peter Jackson movies and I am steadily growing a dislike for his work. I saw the first Lord of the Rings movie and I, unlike apparently everyone else in the world, did not look forward to watching the rest of the series. I thought the story and cinematography were excellent. But I thought the plotline was lethargic and some themes were too repetitive.

I just saw King Kong and I can say the same things about it. The movie started out promising, but it was too long. Now I don't want to ruin the movie for anyone, so I'll just explain some film ideas and explain in broad terms how King Kong failed. (I'll try not to give anything away.)

First, what most people are talking about: the movie is too long. Now there is nothing inately wrong with a 3 hour movie and in fact there are a bunch of good 3 hour movies (Lawrence of Arabia comes to mind). The problem is that it could easily be shorter, considering how long some scenes are and how many times you see a similar reaction or occurence. Jackson tries to add too many elements to the movie and in the process leaves holes in the story. If he explained everything the movie could easily be 4 or 5 hours long.

Second, and this might give something away, but I don't need to see Kong's "tender side" over and over again. I get it, the gorilla is kind when not attacked. And every "tender moment" doesn't need to be interrupted by gun shots or other kinds of attacks.

Third, and this a "rule" that all of hollywood has been breaking for awhile: just because you can do something (with special effects, etc.) it doesn't mean you SHOULD do it. I don't think I'm ruining anything when I say, there is much more special effects than the Gorilla and T-Rex that you see in the preview. And that's not exactly a good thing.

Anyways, I guess when you get down to it, I think Jackson needs a better editor. I understand that most Lord of the Ring fans appreciate the trilogy because it is fairly true to the books. But King Kong has no basis for such an extensive rendering. It seemed like he was given free reign, after (and during) the success of the Rings trilogy and now King Kong is monstrous (pun intended) production.

Redskins: 10-6 and in.

The Season: I'll be honest, 5 weeks ago I really thought the Redskins were done. As you could probably guess from my writings all year, I thought they had what it took, but I thought winning 5 in a row would be impossible. Impossible because they weren't getting calls, playing well or finishing games well. So I dismissed their chances of making the playoffs, by saying: Redskins, 5-6 and done! Well I am extremely happy to say, I was wrong!

This Game: Make no mistake about it Redskins defense won this game. Sure Clinton Portis and the offensive line ran well, but they consistently had short fields because of turnovers caused by the defense. When they had a long field to cross, the drives would sputter. Plus when they could have put it away by running the clock out, they couldn't get 10 yards. So you have to credit the defense with this win.
The offensive struggles can be attributed to the fact that the Eagles defense, although not highly ranked, was still intact and still pretty good. So my only problem was that the defense allowed the Eagles too many yards. They kept them from scoring, not so much by stopping them, but by taking the ball away. That's not something to get used to living by. It reminded me of the mid-season, you know, when they went 2-6.

Into the Playoffs: Obviously a thorough beating of the not-so-good Eagles would be a better way to enter the playoffs. But a win like this is almost as good because they had 2 rather easy wins going into this game. It's akin to a loss when you're 13-0... It makes you play harder next time because it brings you back down to earth. Hopefully the Redskins remembered to not take anyone lightly. The reason why this is almost as good is because through it all, they still won... there is no doubt, the Redskins are on a roll.

The Next Game: As I stated I would LOVE to see the Redskins play the Bucs... ask and ye shall receive, I guess. The Bucs game was the start of a 3 game losing streak. A streak in which the Redskins led in the 4th quarter of each game but couldn't hold on. Well, the Redskins have learned to keep their leads in the past 5 games and it's time for a rematch...

NFL Week 17 Picks

I know I've been writing a lot about the NFL, and not much about other things, but what can I say. I'm looking forward to a bunch of stuff (including American Idol) but considering the Redskins are involved in important games, the NFL is tops on my blogging mind.

So, two weeks ago I got to 70-36 on my picks for the season. This past week I went with my intuition and got 9-7 bringing me to 79-43 for the season. Had I actually not been so stubborn (picking against the Redskins for the rest of the season), I would have gone 10-6. Ahhh, Hindsight!

I need to go 11-4 to get to a respectable 90-47. Unfortunately, the last week is probably the most unpredictable, because at this point you have about 18 teams that have nothing to play for but "respect" and about 5 or 6 teams playing for wildcard spots or divisional titles. The only thing you can count on is that no one wants to enter the playoffs with a loss.

Anyhoo here go my crazy ideas:

NY Giants OVER at Oakland - The Giants need to win to assure themselves of the NFC East divisional title. They also don't want to start the playoffs with two straight loses. Plus, in case you don't remember, the Raiders are led by one Norval Eugene Turner... ah the irony.

at San Diego OVER Denver - A tough pick because Denver has been playing well of late, so they don't NEED to win (like the Giants). The Chargers, though, are a schizo team, and they haven't lost two in a row since the beginning of the season. Will they bookend this season with back-to-back loses? I don't think so and neither does Las Vegas, since they're 10 pt favorites. BTW, this is one of those times that picking against the spread would be easier. (obviously I would pick Denver and the points)

Baltimore OVER at Cleveland OVER Baltimore - The Ravens were told Brian Billick would be returning next season.... ahhh for schadenfreude. At least the Browns still suck.

at NY Jets OVER Buffalo - I remember saying that I wanted to pick the Jets once... well here I go.

at Atlanta OVER Carolina - If the Redskins make the playoffs, one of the two teams I would like them to play on the road is the Carolina Panthers.

at Dallas OVER St. Louis - By the time this game starts, the Cowboys will know if they are playing for playoff spot. Not that it matters because the Rams are awful.

at Green Bay OVER Seattle - Yet another spread that is being determined by the fact that the playoff team has nothing to play for. Even though I think Brett Favre is overrated, he is a gamer who will take advantage of the fact that Seattle has everything wrapped up. I can definitely see this being his last game, since he'll probably play well and it's at Lambeau.

at San Francisco OVER Houston - The Niners ruined everything for their fans last week by beating the Rams. Next year they'll be picking at #3 or #4, not even able to trade the rights to Matt Leinert. Now it's Houston's turn. My only fear is that they are so inept, they'll mess that up too.

at Indianapolis OVER Arizona - The "savvy" popular pick here is to go with Arizona. But remember what I said about not going into the playoffs with a loss. Well you certainly don't want to go in with 3 loses in a row after going 13-0. I would be very hesitant to pick Indy to win it all, if they lost this game, because they would have an entire month of loses and inactivity going into a playoff game. That just can't be good.

at Jacksonville OVER Tennessee - Jacksonville certainly doesn't need to win this game, because they can't do any better than a wild card because of the Colts. Even though they haven't really beaten anyone soundly, I still like them. They sort of remind me of the 2000 Ravens, without the hyped defense.

at Kansas City OVER Cincinnati - If San Diego (who is out of the playoffs) wins on Saturday, this game will mean nothing. I'll keep going with Kansas City at home in December.

Chicago OVER at Minnesota - A few weeks ago this game looked important. Even last week it looked promising until the Vikings lost at Baltimore. Now it may determine if Mike Tice is back in Minnesota next year.

at New England OVER Miami - Remember the whole Florida teams don't play well in cold weather? Well, as much as I like what Nick Saban has done, I still think that applies.

at Pittsburgh OVER Detroit - I like Matt Millen because he helped the Skins win a Super Bowl. Having said that, what can someone explain to me exactly what qualified him to be a team president? Deion Sanders played in NFL and went on to become a commentator.... and he wants to be a head coach, but no one is handing him the reigns to their team.

at Tampa Bay OVER New Orleans - If the Redskins make into the playoffs, the team I would love to see the Redskins play is the Tampa Bay Bucs. I mean LOVE! When you loses a game to a bad call, you want it back, bad. And that would be exactly what the Skins need.

at Philadelphia OVER Washington - Really, what can I say?

Have a happy new year!

A New Year for movies

some of the movies I am looking forward to in 2006:

Lady in the Water - M. Night Shyamalan
The Da Vinci Code
The Fantastic Mr. Fox - if it actually comes out in 2006

TV/Remakes/Sequels:

Mission Impossible III - I know Tom Cruise is insane but that didn't keep me from seeing War of the Worlds either.
Superman Returns - My childhood favorite movie returns. Just hearing the theme song in the trailer give me goosebumps.
The Pink Panther - It Doesn't actually look all that good, but I like Steve Martin.
Pirates of the Carribean II - I'm a fan of Johnny Depp but I pegged him as one of those actors who wouldn't keep coming back to the same role. But he's filming Pirates III right now.
Miami Vice - I'm not as big a fan of Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx as the rest of world (or maybe just Hollywood) is but I'll give one of my childhood TV shows a chance. I know... bad reason, but I'ld see an A-Team, Riptide and/or Cheers movie too.

Bush Drinking?

I used to watch the Late Late Show back when Craig Kilborn was host. When Kilborn left, it became stagnant and formulaic. I was interested when Craig Ferguson was named host, but it didn't seem to come out of the post-Kilborn lull (or at least it was slow in being interesting). This clip is pretty funny... so I might check it out again.
EDIT: The link is dead but thanks to Youtube we have this:

Redskins, 9-6 and not quite done yet.

I am now, for a week, a Norv Turner fan. What last week I, in essence, called impossible, is now slightly more probable. If the Redskins beat the Eagles up in Philly (can happen) and the Giants lose at Oakland (probably won't happen), the Redskins would be NFC East Champions. Probably not deserving, since champions shouldn't lose 6 of 8 straight in the middle of the season.... but hey, you can't complain about having at least one home playoff game.

I wrote yesterday that this game will mark (at least the beginning) of Joe Gibbs' second coming. I stand by it. This was a game that a Norv Turner led, or Steve Spurrier led team would have lost. In fact, either of those two teams would have probably lost last week too.

Before last year the last time I saw a Gibbs led team I was 16 years old. Pretty young, but not young enough to miss that a good football team wins games they're supposed to win and also good number of the evenly matched games. So I watched the past few years as the Redskins would have good teams, but lose the close ones and the ones they were supposed to win. But this is the difference Gibbs makes.

It even looks like the defense is starting to not just play well, but also not give up the big plays. The only touchdown given up by the Skins defense was a fluke. Eli Manning overthrew his first reciever, who fortuitously tipped it to a diving Amani Toomer. The other TD was a interception return.

The skins are gelling at the PEFECT time, a bit late but not too late. At least they control their playoff hopes... win and they're in. A little earlier and they could control their conference championship hopes. Oh well, I would rather see them win well, like this week and last week, than win a conference championship and lose in their first playoff game.

NFL Week 16 picks

Ah... Christmas. The bulk of the games are now on Saturday so I'm writing today....

Last week I went a more respectable 11-5. Not great, but not bad considering a few things. One of my misses was because of my continued picking against the Redskins. Another miss was when I "took a chance" and went with Minnesota. (I'll try not to do that again) And finally, two picks I missed (Atlanta vs. Chicago and Philadelphia vs. St. Louis) were picks were I blatantly went against my instincts saying "This time I am going against my instincts and going with the numbers." and "I'm going with the favorite and against my instincts on this one."

The only bad miss was San Diego beating Indianapolis. I should have known Marty Schottenheimer had in his team. I talk a lot of smack about Marty (I really don't want to write his last name again), but he's really not all that bad. There are definitely worse coaches in the league, it's just that Marty can make for a schizo team. (like the 2001 Redskins).

So needless to say, it's all instincts for these picks

Philadelphia OVER at Arizona - As I said earlier I went against Philly last week even though I thought they would win. Not gonna do that again...

at Carolina OVER Dallas - This is a tough one. As I wrote earlier this week, the kind of loss Dallas had is not good at the end of the year. If they were playing a bad team I could see a chance... the problem is that I don't think Carolina all that good. (remember they're in the NFC South)

at Cincinnati OVER Buffalo - I don't have anything to say except that Cincy should roll here...

at Denver OVER Oakland - I will be rooting for Norville Turner's team next week, since they will be playing the Giants. I don't think they'll win that week either, though.

Jacksonville OVER at Houston - Jacksonville looks like they play to the level of their opponent (except for the Indy game) and that is dangerous especially against another team that does that... like Houston. Houston tends to lose those games though.

at Kansas City OVER San Diego - This should be a GOOD game. San Diego really needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Plus, you always hear how the Chiefs don't lose in Arrowhead in December.

at Miami OVER Tennessee - Remember how I said that I like Nick Saban... plus the Titans seem to be in a win one, lose one cycle.

Detroit OVER at New Orleans - This is a tough game to pick if only because both of these teams stink. I would go with the home team, but they're playing in San Antonio.

Pittsburgh OVER at Cleveland - I am nothing if not stubborn, and I still don't like Pittsburgh. I think they aren't as good as their record, but they are certainly good enough to beat the Browns in Cleveland.

Indianapolis OVER at Seattle - According to Yahoo, Seattle is a 9 1/2 pt favorite over the Colts. I'm stunned. The best team, by far, in the NFL loses a game and they're giving up a touchdown AND a field goal. Granted Seattle has more to play for (they're trying to win home field advantage, which is more important considering their location) but the Colts will still want to prove last week wasn't something that could be easily duplicated.

at St. Louis OVER San Francisco - I'm going to guess that Reggie Bush will be a Niner next year.

at Tampa Bay OVER Atlanta - I just feel this downright need to point out that the NFC South is suspect. Both teams need this game but since it's in Tampa and Atlanta hasn't shown any fortitude, I'm going with Tampa.

Minnesota OVER at Baltimore - When a game comes along and one team needs a win more than another, all other things being equal, go with the team that is desperate. If the Ravens were playing any better (beating up on Green Bay doesn't count), I'ld have a problem with this pick.

Chicago OVER at Green Bay - Green Bay should shut it down since they still have a chance for the #1 pick. Even if they don't get Bush they could hope to get Matt Leinert who would surely be better than Aaron Rodgers was in Baltimore last Monday. ("Bite me in the butt" pick)

New England OVER at NY Jets - Last week I said Tom Brady has "Donovan McNabb syndrome" which sounds worse than I meant it to. Brady is certainly a very good QB, I just meant to compliment the team as whole more than put Brady down... Anyways I've got a weird feeling about this game. Don't know what it is, but I'm not willing to pick the Jets.

and Finally:

NY Giants OVER at Washington - In 2000, the Washington Redskins started the season 6-2. They had promise but hit one of those spans that a Norv Turner led team is bound to have. They followed that promising start by losing 3 of 4 by a total of 10 points. Entering Week 14 at 7-5, they NEEDED to beat the Giants at home to keep their playoff homes alive. They could only muster a single touchdown, giving up 3 field goals to lose on a freezing December day (I was there). Norv Turner was fired the next day. This game should be the test by which Joe Gibbs should be measured to his successor/predecessors.

Redskins 8-6, maybe not done but definitely not in.

The Colts loss today, and to me that practically assures them of winning the Super Bowl. Had they gone 16-0, I wouldn't have picked them to win the Super Bowl because I think there has to be much more pressure in the playoffs to win when you're "protecting" your record too.

The Redskins did to the Cowboys what the Giants did to the Skins almost 2 months ago: took advantage of home field, exposed weaknesses, and got lucky that their opponent really didn't show up. When you aren't a powerhouse, you'll probably end up having one of those kinds of games.

I mention these games because they are very similar in nature. They are setbacks which can at first mess with you, but in the end actually help you. Do you think the Colts will go into any game flat like they did against the Chargers. I assure you the Skins weren't going to go in flat in this game like they did against the Giants. And they shouldn't go in flat next week.

The main difference here is that the Colts can recover much easier. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they had their let down game late in the season. Mediocre to good teams are affected much more by this kind of game.

The Redskins ended up beating a weakened Eagles the week after the Giants loss and then lost 3 in a row, starting with a game lost to a bad call in Tampa Bay. The Redskins were fortunate to have two weak road opponents to work up their confidence to be able to beat the Cowboys. Now they're dangerous.

Here is the amazing part: If the Redskins were to miraculously win out they would practically be assured of a playoff spot. Even more miraculous would be if they won out AND the Giants lost to the Raiders (not gonna happen really...) in the last week of the season, the Redskins would be NFC East Champions. They would tie on the first tiebreaker (1-1 Head-to-Head) but they would win the second, divisional record (Redskins would be 5-1, Giants would be 4-2). I don't see it happening, but it certainly isn't impossible.
I doubt it will happen but if the Skins win out, beating the Giants next week, and the Giants lose to the Raiders the following week, the Redskins should be

Week 15 NFL Picks

Last week I made my regular picks as well as against the spread picks. Nice idea but bad implementation, because I haven't been able to find results against the spread. Plus I stupidly made a pick against the spread (Washington vs. Arizona) when I had already gone with the underdog. So in other words, I'm not doing that again.

Anyways I went a horrendous 9-7 straight up. (I really want to find a site that has against the spread results, because I picked a lot of the underdogs ATS in games where they won.) That killed my hope of getting to 60 right before getting 30 wrong... I am now 59-31. Now I need to get two good weeks to get to 80-40. We'll see.

Since I got so many wrong, I won't talk about all of them. I will, though, talk about the comments that now sound real good or real bad.

First the bad: So... contrary to what I wrote, there is a way Miami could beat San Diego (Sheesh! I said that and then immediately picked Miami against the spread!) . Also I missed both of my "bite me in the butt" picks. That is to say, I warned about a pick but got it right anyways (if that makes any sense). I picked Detroit over Green Bay ATS, and Pittsburgh over Chicago... warning about both picks... but both were good picks (Detroit covered the 6 1/2 pt spread, and Pittsburgh killed Chicago). I felt Atlanta wouldn't beat New Orleans by 10, but they did 36-17.

The good: I said I wanted to pick the Jets, but for some reason I didn't want to pick them against the Raiders... I did pick them ATS though. I "felt" the Texans would keep it close against the Titans... and they did, losing by a 3.

Anyways, now that college football is over the NFL moves a few games to Saturday, so I gotta make a bunch of quick picks.

Denver OVER at Buffalo - Denver certainly didn't cover the 10+ pt spread at home last week against Baltimore and now they are 8 1/2 pt favorites on the road against Buffalo. This is tough because ATS I would go with Buffalo.

at New England OVER Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay has play just one AFC team on the road, and lost to a bad Jets team early this year. I still think the NFC South (and North) teams are paper tigers. I also want to see New England show that they can still win without (or with a hobbled) Tom Brady. Good QB, but has Dononvan McNabb syndrome... his team makes him look better.

at NY Giants OVER Kansas City - Since this isn't exactly a serious picking/betting thing I do, I am now instituting another reverse karma picking scheme. But instead of just picking against the Redskins, I am going to pick with the Giants and with the Cowboys no matter who they play. In all honesty, I started this about 2 weeks ago with the Giants, but went against the Cowboys last week. (The 'Boys beat the Chiefs that week... )

at Houston OVER Arizona - Houston is eventually going to even mess up the Reggie Bush Sweepstakes and win one. This should be tough for the Texan fans since they'll watch a win and Reggie Bush possibly going to the Niners. Ouch!

Carolina OVER at New Orleans - Carolina reminds me of the '99 Redskins. An okay team that beat teams they should have beaten (blowing out 1 or 2 really bad teams), split the equally matched games, and lost to better teams (but didn't get blown out in any of their losses). The big difference is that Carolina's schedule seems really weak compared to what I remember the Skins season.

Atlanta OVER at Chicago - I normally try to make picks with my gut feeling, taking into account stats, standings, etc. but trying not to make too much of it. This time I am going against my instincts and going with the numbers. Statistically, Atlanta is #10 offensively and that will be the highest ranked offense the Bears will have seen since week 3. ("Bite me in the butt" pick)

Cincinnati OVER at Detroit - There really should be no discussion here aside from the 8 pt spread seems small.

at Indianapolis OVER San Diego - Last week I talked about this game in the San Diego vs. Miami spot because I didn't think Miami had any business giving SD a game. And SD lost a game they couldn't afford to mail in, because of their next week's opponent. Plus I stubbornly picked against Indy last week, and I can't do that twice in a row.

at Jacksonville OVER San Francisco - You know the whole idea of not wanting to play a good team after they have had a bad loss. Well, Jacksonville didn't exactly "loss bad" to Indy, but I get the feeling they seriously thought they could have won that game. I REALLY want to see a playoff rematch of those two teams.

at Miami OVER NY Jets - Although I watched all of about 30 seconds of the Jets/Raiders game, I'm willing to bet the Jets' win was more of an Oakland loss. Anyways, I actually like Miami...

at Oakland OVER Cleveland - Oakland has one win (against my Skins) in their last 6 games... In other words I REALLY want to pick against them... In fact, I will... make this one: Cleveland OVER at Oakland

at Minnesota OVER Pittsburgh - Remember how I said that Pittsburgh isn't good... Well the last impressive win they had (before last weeks beating of a BAD Chicago Bears was a week 6 win over Cincinnati. I don't trust Minnesota, but hey... ya gotta take chances.

Seattle OVER at Tennessee - I think I want to pick Seattle to beat the Colts if only because I want someone to beat the Colts. (Yes, that does go against my reverse karma theory) The problem is even though I like Seattle, I just think the Colts are too good. And once again I talk about a Colt's opponent the week before they actually play them....

at St. Louis OVER Philadelphia - One of the things I don't like is knowing who is favored. And this game is a reason why. I say I don't like picking favorites over and over, but that in itself is against that belief. Anyways, I'm going with the favorite and against my instincts on this one.

Dallas OVER at Washington - Remember how I said that you don't want to go into a game against a good team after they've had a bad loss. Well that applies to opponents who are equally matched with you too. It also works in reverse... you want an equally matched team to be coming off a close win, because they might still have a lingering doubt about their last game. Well, needless to say (even though I got last weeks pick wrong) I'm glad Dallas beat Kansas City with a little help from the refs and a missed field goal by KC.

at Baltimore OVER Green Bay - Someone should have told Green Bay that if they wanted a shot at Reggie Bush, they should have missed that field goal against Detroit. Oh well, they'll have to hope someone stupidly trades the next Brett Favre to them like Atlanta did a few years ago.

Violating the Dulles Toll Road

A friend of mine once told me about how he was heading out to Charlestown, WV. He took the Dulles Toll Road part of the way. Being unfamiliar with the Toll Road he drove right through the fast lane. He didn't have a Smart Tag and, of course, all the lights and bells went off. He said he noticed it in his rearview mirror, but didn't want to stop. He figured they would send him something in the mail. Nothing ever came.

Well, shockingly, VDOT has admitted that there is nothing in place to catch people. The bells and whistles are just and only that. The camera looking thing is just for show too. So if no cop is around and the toll people don't get your license plate, you're good.

I understand the costs might not have been worth the benefits in the beginning... but why admit this now?! It's going to be about a year until they have real cameras in fall of 2006. So until then, be daring... go ahead and violate the tolls on the Dulles Toll Raod.

Redskins 7-6, and I'm not changing my tune

This weekend, the Redskins got lucky and kept their faint playoff hopes alive. They would have to win out to have a chance, but I wouldn't hold my breath considering how they played on sunday.

The passing offense was atrocious giving up 3 INT (not all were entirely Brunell's fault), but its not like the defense was all roses. They were fortunate the Cardinals didn't have a running game, because the Cards actually had a chance to win it with just a passing game.

What did impress me about the Redskins is that the defense caused and recovered fumbles. Those were the turnovers the Redskins weren't recovering early in the year. In fact, by comparison, those were the types of turnovers that keep the Giants winning games with a statistically not so good defense but an excellent number of turnover (2nd in the league).

And talking about the Giants, they got lucky in overtime against a bad Eagles team. The Cowboys also got luck against the Chiefs, getting an extra set of downs from hthe refs and then the Cheifs missed a makeable game tying field goal. So I guess the good luck was running rampant in the NFC East (except of course for the Eagles).