NFL Week 16 picks

Ah... Christmas. The bulk of the games are now on Saturday so I'm writing today....

Last week I went a more respectable 11-5. Not great, but not bad considering a few things. One of my misses was because of my continued picking against the Redskins. Another miss was when I "took a chance" and went with Minnesota. (I'll try not to do that again) And finally, two picks I missed (Atlanta vs. Chicago and Philadelphia vs. St. Louis) were picks were I blatantly went against my instincts saying "This time I am going against my instincts and going with the numbers." and "I'm going with the favorite and against my instincts on this one."

The only bad miss was San Diego beating Indianapolis. I should have known Marty Schottenheimer had in his team. I talk a lot of smack about Marty (I really don't want to write his last name again), but he's really not all that bad. There are definitely worse coaches in the league, it's just that Marty can make for a schizo team. (like the 2001 Redskins).

So needless to say, it's all instincts for these picks

Philadelphia OVER at Arizona - As I said earlier I went against Philly last week even though I thought they would win. Not gonna do that again...

at Carolina OVER Dallas - This is a tough one. As I wrote earlier this week, the kind of loss Dallas had is not good at the end of the year. If they were playing a bad team I could see a chance... the problem is that I don't think Carolina all that good. (remember they're in the NFC South)

at Cincinnati OVER Buffalo - I don't have anything to say except that Cincy should roll here...

at Denver OVER Oakland - I will be rooting for Norville Turner's team next week, since they will be playing the Giants. I don't think they'll win that week either, though.

Jacksonville OVER at Houston - Jacksonville looks like they play to the level of their opponent (except for the Indy game) and that is dangerous especially against another team that does that... like Houston. Houston tends to lose those games though.

at Kansas City OVER San Diego - This should be a GOOD game. San Diego really needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Plus, you always hear how the Chiefs don't lose in Arrowhead in December.

at Miami OVER Tennessee - Remember how I said that I like Nick Saban... plus the Titans seem to be in a win one, lose one cycle.

Detroit OVER at New Orleans - This is a tough game to pick if only because both of these teams stink. I would go with the home team, but they're playing in San Antonio.

Pittsburgh OVER at Cleveland - I am nothing if not stubborn, and I still don't like Pittsburgh. I think they aren't as good as their record, but they are certainly good enough to beat the Browns in Cleveland.

Indianapolis OVER at Seattle - According to Yahoo, Seattle is a 9 1/2 pt favorite over the Colts. I'm stunned. The best team, by far, in the NFL loses a game and they're giving up a touchdown AND a field goal. Granted Seattle has more to play for (they're trying to win home field advantage, which is more important considering their location) but the Colts will still want to prove last week wasn't something that could be easily duplicated.

at St. Louis OVER San Francisco - I'm going to guess that Reggie Bush will be a Niner next year.

at Tampa Bay OVER Atlanta - I just feel this downright need to point out that the NFC South is suspect. Both teams need this game but since it's in Tampa and Atlanta hasn't shown any fortitude, I'm going with Tampa.

Minnesota OVER at Baltimore - When a game comes along and one team needs a win more than another, all other things being equal, go with the team that is desperate. If the Ravens were playing any better (beating up on Green Bay doesn't count), I'ld have a problem with this pick.

Chicago OVER at Green Bay - Green Bay should shut it down since they still have a chance for the #1 pick. Even if they don't get Bush they could hope to get Matt Leinert who would surely be better than Aaron Rodgers was in Baltimore last Monday. ("Bite me in the butt" pick)

New England OVER at NY Jets - Last week I said Tom Brady has "Donovan McNabb syndrome" which sounds worse than I meant it to. Brady is certainly a very good QB, I just meant to compliment the team as whole more than put Brady down... Anyways I've got a weird feeling about this game. Don't know what it is, but I'm not willing to pick the Jets.

and Finally:

NY Giants OVER at Washington - In 2000, the Washington Redskins started the season 6-2. They had promise but hit one of those spans that a Norv Turner led team is bound to have. They followed that promising start by losing 3 of 4 by a total of 10 points. Entering Week 14 at 7-5, they NEEDED to beat the Giants at home to keep their playoff homes alive. They could only muster a single touchdown, giving up 3 field goals to lose on a freezing December day (I was there). Norv Turner was fired the next day. This game should be the test by which Joe Gibbs should be measured to his successor/predecessors.