Last week I spoke of a picking theory. The "theory" (although that is a lofty name for it) only applies to about 3 or 4 teams per year. It is a pretty basic idea predicated on, early in the season, finding two types teams: those that are really bad and will go 4-12 or worse, and those that will be really good and will go 12-4 or better. What you then do is pick against the really bad teams and with the really good teams all season.
There are usually about 5 or 6 "dogs" (bad teams) each year. (This year there is an unusually high number of dogs, about 10.) The trick is to, by week 3 or 4, figure out the "top dogs." This year there are 2 top dogs, Houston and San Francisco. That's not to say they will be the only teams to go 4-12 (or worse), but they are the only that are SURE to be that bad. (Last year the dogs were San Francisco and Miami)
On the other end, there are "winners." Winners are teams that should win at least 12 games. This year there is only one, Indianapolis. Once again, Indy might not be the only team to win 12 or more, but they are the only ones that were good enough to be assured of it. (Last year, it was Indy and New England).
As I stated in the beginning, this only helps you for about 4 teams a year, but for those games you are assured to be 48-16 or better. You, of course, have to pick the dogs to lose and winners to win in those first few weeks of the season (before you christening them as dogs and winners) to have that record. But that shouldn't be too hard because the dogs shouldn't be expect to win (and vice-versa for winners) in the first place. Granted it's sort of a passive way to pick games and it probably won't get you a prize (on it's own), but it's not terrible idea either.
This week I'm making straight picks and against the spread (ATS) picks. If I pick a favorite, I'll put my ATS pick at the end of the paragraph. If I pick an underdog, I'm obviously picking them against the spread, so I might not make mention of the spread.
Anywho, here they are:
at Carolina OVER Tampa Bay - To me the NFC South and NFC North teams are all paper tigers... especially their highly ranked defenses. The Bucs and Panthers have #2 and #4 ranked defense, but they've been playing against really bad offenses. I'll go with the veteran offense on this one. (ATS: Bucs)
at Cincinnati OVER Cleveland - The Bengals are 12 pt favorites, and I'ld still take them against the spread. (ATS: Cincy)
Kansas City OVER at Dallas - There is just no love for the Chiefs. And the last time I said that they lost to the Bills.
at Denver OVER Baltimore - Jake Plummer threw two INT last week. Are we seeing the old Plummer here? Either way, this 14 pt spread is too big. (ATS: Baltimore)
at Green Bay OVER Detroit - Here's a weird stat: Green Bay is 2-10 with the #8 defense and the #8 passing offense. This is a night game in Green Bay and there is a chance of snow. This game will be decided by what Brett Favre shows up. (ATS: Detroit) (This will be my ATS "bite me in the butt" game)
at Jacksonville OVER Indianapolis - I know I wrote all that go with the "winner" stuff, but I've decided to be bold and go with my instinct from about a month ago. The rest of the Jaguars have so many reasons to step it up, but I think the biggest (yes bigger than the Colts unbeaten season) is to prove that this team isn't dependant on Byron Leftwich.
at Minnesota OVER St. Louis - Remember how I said I would make my Minnesota will win the NFC North prediction this week? Well I'm insane for ever thinking that. I thought it because I didn't think the Bears were all that good... the Vikings might be a better team than the Bears now, but I don't see them winning more games than the Bears lose. (ATS: Minnesota)
New England OVER at Buffalo - The Pats are barely 3 1/2 pt favorites. Buffalo has yet to win on the Road, and now they're gonna be within a TD? I don't think so. (ATS: New England)
NY Giants OVER at Philadelphia - A few weeks ago, I stuningly thought this would be a close game. Remember how I'm insane. Anyways, the 9 pt line in this game is just right. (ATS: Giants)
Oakland OVER at NY Jets - I don't think I've picked the Jets once this year, and I really WANT to pick them at some point even though it would be REDICULOUS. This would be a candidate for it because you never know what the Raiders are gonna do, but the Jets just suck... (ATS: Oakland)
at Pittsburgh OVER Chicago - Remember how last week I pointed out that Chicago hasn't played a top offense since week 5 (not surprisingly their last loss)? Well their soft schedule contines against the #20 offense Steelers. But this time they're not playing an NFC softie like the teams they've been racking up wins against. The 6 1/2 pt line is too big, though. I'm thinking this game will be about 10-13. (ATS: Chicago) (This will be my straight "bite me in the butt" pick because if you remember... I don't respect the Steelers either)
at San Diego OVER Miami - The glamour beat the Colts pick, is next weeks Chargers game. San Diego is good, but they'ld have to do it at Indy. Why did i bring that up? Because there is NO WAY Miami should win this game. Another well placed spread... (ATS: Miami)
at Seattle OVER San Francisco - This is a 16 pt spread... It's too tempting, especially considering their last game was a 27-25 squeaker for Seattle. (ATS: San Fran)
at Tennessee OVER Houston - Houston is one of my "top dogs" but they've had two close losses in the past two weeks. Why that makes me think they'll keep it close on the road is kinda stupid... I still feel it though. (ATS: Houston)
at Arizona OVER Washington - I continue my stubborn streak. The interesting line here is that Arizona is #1 in passing offense, and the Skins are #10 in passing defense. I'm stunned, because the Skins defensive line gets NO penetration, making it impossible for the secondary, who has to keep cover for what seems like an eternity. This'll be interesting. (ATS: Washington)
at Atlanta OVER New Orleans - I wish I could bet on the chances of Monday Night Football playing "It's a Family Affair" by Sly and The Family Stone because of the whole Aaron Brooks and Michael Vick. This a 10 1/2 pt spread here, and the last time Atlanta beat anyone by more than 10 was back on Oct. 2nd. (ATS: New Orleans)
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