Last week I made my regular picks as well as against the spread picks. Nice idea but bad implementation, because I haven't been able to find results against the spread. Plus I stupidly made a pick against the spread (Washington vs. Arizona) when I had already gone with the underdog. So in other words, I'm not doing that again.
Anyways I went a horrendous 9-7 straight up. (I really want to find a site that has against the spread results, because I picked a lot of the underdogs ATS in games where they won.) That killed my hope of getting to 60 right before getting 30 wrong... I am now 59-31. Now I need to get two good weeks to get to 80-40. We'll see.
Since I got so many wrong, I won't talk about all of them. I will, though, talk about the comments that now sound real good or real bad.
First the bad: So... contrary to what I wrote, there is a way Miami could beat San Diego (Sheesh! I said that and then immediately picked Miami against the spread!) . Also I missed both of my "bite me in the butt" picks. That is to say, I warned about a pick but got it right anyways (if that makes any sense). I picked Detroit over Green Bay ATS, and Pittsburgh over Chicago... warning about both picks... but both were good picks (Detroit covered the 6 1/2 pt spread, and Pittsburgh killed Chicago). I felt Atlanta wouldn't beat New Orleans by 10, but they did 36-17.
The good: I said I wanted to pick the Jets, but for some reason I didn't want to pick them against the Raiders... I did pick them ATS though. I "felt" the Texans would keep it close against the Titans... and they did, losing by a 3.
Anyways, now that college football is over the NFL moves a few games to Saturday, so I gotta make a bunch of quick picks.
Denver OVER at Buffalo - Denver certainly didn't cover the 10+ pt spread at home last week against Baltimore and now they are 8 1/2 pt favorites on the road against Buffalo. This is tough because ATS I would go with Buffalo.
at New England OVER Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay has play just one AFC team on the road, and lost to a bad Jets team early this year. I still think the NFC South (and North) teams are paper tigers. I also want to see New England show that they can still win without (or with a hobbled) Tom Brady. Good QB, but has Dononvan McNabb syndrome... his team makes him look better.
at NY Giants OVER Kansas City - Since this isn't exactly a serious picking/betting thing I do, I am now instituting another reverse karma picking scheme. But instead of just picking against the Redskins, I am going to pick with the Giants and with the Cowboys no matter who they play. In all honesty, I started this about 2 weeks ago with the Giants, but went against the Cowboys last week. (The 'Boys beat the Chiefs that week... )
at Houston OVER Arizona - Houston is eventually going to even mess up the Reggie Bush Sweepstakes and win one. This should be tough for the Texan fans since they'll watch a win and Reggie Bush possibly going to the Niners. Ouch!
Carolina OVER at New Orleans - Carolina reminds me of the '99 Redskins. An okay team that beat teams they should have beaten (blowing out 1 or 2 really bad teams), split the equally matched games, and lost to better teams (but didn't get blown out in any of their losses). The big difference is that Carolina's schedule seems really weak compared to what I remember the Skins season.
Atlanta OVER at Chicago - I normally try to make picks with my gut feeling, taking into account stats, standings, etc. but trying not to make too much of it. This time I am going against my instincts and going with the numbers. Statistically, Atlanta is #10 offensively and that will be the highest ranked offense the Bears will have seen since week 3. ("Bite me in the butt" pick)
Cincinnati OVER at Detroit - There really should be no discussion here aside from the 8 pt spread seems small.
at Indianapolis OVER San Diego - Last week I talked about this game in the San Diego vs. Miami spot because I didn't think Miami had any business giving SD a game. And SD lost a game they couldn't afford to mail in, because of their next week's opponent. Plus I stubbornly picked against Indy last week, and I can't do that twice in a row.
at Jacksonville OVER San Francisco - You know the whole idea of not wanting to play a good team after they have had a bad loss. Well, Jacksonville didn't exactly "loss bad" to Indy, but I get the feeling they seriously thought they could have won that game. I REALLY want to see a playoff rematch of those two teams.
at Miami OVER NY Jets - Although I watched all of about 30 seconds of the Jets/Raiders game, I'm willing to bet the Jets' win was more of an Oakland loss. Anyways, I actually like Miami...
at Oakland OVER Cleveland - Oakland has one win (against my Skins) in their last 6 games... In other words I REALLY want to pick against them... In fact, I will... make this one: Cleveland OVER at Oakland
at Minnesota OVER Pittsburgh - Remember how I said that Pittsburgh isn't good... Well the last impressive win they had (before last weeks beating of a BAD Chicago Bears was a week 6 win over Cincinnati. I don't trust Minnesota, but hey... ya gotta take chances.
Seattle OVER at Tennessee - I think I want to pick Seattle to beat the Colts if only because I want someone to beat the Colts. (Yes, that does go against my reverse karma theory) The problem is even though I like Seattle, I just think the Colts are too good. And once again I talk about a Colt's opponent the week before they actually play them....
at St. Louis OVER Philadelphia - One of the things I don't like is knowing who is favored. And this game is a reason why. I say I don't like picking favorites over and over, but that in itself is against that belief. Anyways, I'm going with the favorite and against my instincts on this one.
Dallas OVER at Washington - Remember how I said that you don't want to go into a game against a good team after they've had a bad loss. Well that applies to opponents who are equally matched with you too. It also works in reverse... you want an equally matched team to be coming off a close win, because they might still have a lingering doubt about their last game. Well, needless to say (even though I got last weeks pick wrong) I'm glad Dallas beat Kansas City with a little help from the refs and a missed field goal by KC.
at Baltimore OVER Green Bay - Someone should have told Green Bay that if they wanted a shot at Reggie Bush, they should have missed that field goal against Detroit. Oh well, they'll have to hope someone stupidly trades the next Brett Favre to them like Atlanta did a few years ago.
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