NFL Week 17 Picks

I know I've been writing a lot about the NFL, and not much about other things, but what can I say. I'm looking forward to a bunch of stuff (including American Idol) but considering the Redskins are involved in important games, the NFL is tops on my blogging mind.

So, two weeks ago I got to 70-36 on my picks for the season. This past week I went with my intuition and got 9-7 bringing me to 79-43 for the season. Had I actually not been so stubborn (picking against the Redskins for the rest of the season), I would have gone 10-6. Ahhh, Hindsight!

I need to go 11-4 to get to a respectable 90-47. Unfortunately, the last week is probably the most unpredictable, because at this point you have about 18 teams that have nothing to play for but "respect" and about 5 or 6 teams playing for wildcard spots or divisional titles. The only thing you can count on is that no one wants to enter the playoffs with a loss.

Anyhoo here go my crazy ideas:

NY Giants OVER at Oakland - The Giants need to win to assure themselves of the NFC East divisional title. They also don't want to start the playoffs with two straight loses. Plus, in case you don't remember, the Raiders are led by one Norval Eugene Turner... ah the irony.

at San Diego OVER Denver - A tough pick because Denver has been playing well of late, so they don't NEED to win (like the Giants). The Chargers, though, are a schizo team, and they haven't lost two in a row since the beginning of the season. Will they bookend this season with back-to-back loses? I don't think so and neither does Las Vegas, since they're 10 pt favorites. BTW, this is one of those times that picking against the spread would be easier. (obviously I would pick Denver and the points)

Baltimore OVER at Cleveland OVER Baltimore - The Ravens were told Brian Billick would be returning next season.... ahhh for schadenfreude. At least the Browns still suck.

at NY Jets OVER Buffalo - I remember saying that I wanted to pick the Jets once... well here I go.

at Atlanta OVER Carolina - If the Redskins make the playoffs, one of the two teams I would like them to play on the road is the Carolina Panthers.

at Dallas OVER St. Louis - By the time this game starts, the Cowboys will know if they are playing for playoff spot. Not that it matters because the Rams are awful.

at Green Bay OVER Seattle - Yet another spread that is being determined by the fact that the playoff team has nothing to play for. Even though I think Brett Favre is overrated, he is a gamer who will take advantage of the fact that Seattle has everything wrapped up. I can definitely see this being his last game, since he'll probably play well and it's at Lambeau.

at San Francisco OVER Houston - The Niners ruined everything for their fans last week by beating the Rams. Next year they'll be picking at #3 or #4, not even able to trade the rights to Matt Leinert. Now it's Houston's turn. My only fear is that they are so inept, they'll mess that up too.

at Indianapolis OVER Arizona - The "savvy" popular pick here is to go with Arizona. But remember what I said about not going into the playoffs with a loss. Well you certainly don't want to go in with 3 loses in a row after going 13-0. I would be very hesitant to pick Indy to win it all, if they lost this game, because they would have an entire month of loses and inactivity going into a playoff game. That just can't be good.

at Jacksonville OVER Tennessee - Jacksonville certainly doesn't need to win this game, because they can't do any better than a wild card because of the Colts. Even though they haven't really beaten anyone soundly, I still like them. They sort of remind me of the 2000 Ravens, without the hyped defense.

at Kansas City OVER Cincinnati - If San Diego (who is out of the playoffs) wins on Saturday, this game will mean nothing. I'll keep going with Kansas City at home in December.

Chicago OVER at Minnesota - A few weeks ago this game looked important. Even last week it looked promising until the Vikings lost at Baltimore. Now it may determine if Mike Tice is back in Minnesota next year.

at New England OVER Miami - Remember the whole Florida teams don't play well in cold weather? Well, as much as I like what Nick Saban has done, I still think that applies.

at Pittsburgh OVER Detroit - I like Matt Millen because he helped the Skins win a Super Bowl. Having said that, what can someone explain to me exactly what qualified him to be a team president? Deion Sanders played in NFL and went on to become a commentator.... and he wants to be a head coach, but no one is handing him the reigns to their team.

at Tampa Bay OVER New Orleans - If the Redskins make into the playoffs, the team I would love to see the Redskins play is the Tampa Bay Bucs. I mean LOVE! When you loses a game to a bad call, you want it back, bad. And that would be exactly what the Skins need.

at Philadelphia OVER Washington - Really, what can I say?

Have a happy new year!

A New Year for movies

some of the movies I am looking forward to in 2006:

Lady in the Water - M. Night Shyamalan
The Da Vinci Code
The Fantastic Mr. Fox - if it actually comes out in 2006

TV/Remakes/Sequels:

Mission Impossible III - I know Tom Cruise is insane but that didn't keep me from seeing War of the Worlds either.
Superman Returns - My childhood favorite movie returns. Just hearing the theme song in the trailer give me goosebumps.
The Pink Panther - It Doesn't actually look all that good, but I like Steve Martin.
Pirates of the Carribean II - I'm a fan of Johnny Depp but I pegged him as one of those actors who wouldn't keep coming back to the same role. But he's filming Pirates III right now.
Miami Vice - I'm not as big a fan of Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx as the rest of world (or maybe just Hollywood) is but I'll give one of my childhood TV shows a chance. I know... bad reason, but I'ld see an A-Team, Riptide and/or Cheers movie too.

Bush Drinking?

I used to watch the Late Late Show back when Craig Kilborn was host. When Kilborn left, it became stagnant and formulaic. I was interested when Craig Ferguson was named host, but it didn't seem to come out of the post-Kilborn lull (or at least it was slow in being interesting). This clip is pretty funny... so I might check it out again.
EDIT: The link is dead but thanks to Youtube we have this:

Redskins, 9-6 and not quite done yet.

I am now, for a week, a Norv Turner fan. What last week I, in essence, called impossible, is now slightly more probable. If the Redskins beat the Eagles up in Philly (can happen) and the Giants lose at Oakland (probably won't happen), the Redskins would be NFC East Champions. Probably not deserving, since champions shouldn't lose 6 of 8 straight in the middle of the season.... but hey, you can't complain about having at least one home playoff game.

I wrote yesterday that this game will mark (at least the beginning) of Joe Gibbs' second coming. I stand by it. This was a game that a Norv Turner led, or Steve Spurrier led team would have lost. In fact, either of those two teams would have probably lost last week too.

Before last year the last time I saw a Gibbs led team I was 16 years old. Pretty young, but not young enough to miss that a good football team wins games they're supposed to win and also good number of the evenly matched games. So I watched the past few years as the Redskins would have good teams, but lose the close ones and the ones they were supposed to win. But this is the difference Gibbs makes.

It even looks like the defense is starting to not just play well, but also not give up the big plays. The only touchdown given up by the Skins defense was a fluke. Eli Manning overthrew his first reciever, who fortuitously tipped it to a diving Amani Toomer. The other TD was a interception return.

The skins are gelling at the PEFECT time, a bit late but not too late. At least they control their playoff hopes... win and they're in. A little earlier and they could control their conference championship hopes. Oh well, I would rather see them win well, like this week and last week, than win a conference championship and lose in their first playoff game.

NFL Week 16 picks

Ah... Christmas. The bulk of the games are now on Saturday so I'm writing today....

Last week I went a more respectable 11-5. Not great, but not bad considering a few things. One of my misses was because of my continued picking against the Redskins. Another miss was when I "took a chance" and went with Minnesota. (I'll try not to do that again) And finally, two picks I missed (Atlanta vs. Chicago and Philadelphia vs. St. Louis) were picks were I blatantly went against my instincts saying "This time I am going against my instincts and going with the numbers." and "I'm going with the favorite and against my instincts on this one."

The only bad miss was San Diego beating Indianapolis. I should have known Marty Schottenheimer had in his team. I talk a lot of smack about Marty (I really don't want to write his last name again), but he's really not all that bad. There are definitely worse coaches in the league, it's just that Marty can make for a schizo team. (like the 2001 Redskins).

So needless to say, it's all instincts for these picks

Philadelphia OVER at Arizona - As I said earlier I went against Philly last week even though I thought they would win. Not gonna do that again...

at Carolina OVER Dallas - This is a tough one. As I wrote earlier this week, the kind of loss Dallas had is not good at the end of the year. If they were playing a bad team I could see a chance... the problem is that I don't think Carolina all that good. (remember they're in the NFC South)

at Cincinnati OVER Buffalo - I don't have anything to say except that Cincy should roll here...

at Denver OVER Oakland - I will be rooting for Norville Turner's team next week, since they will be playing the Giants. I don't think they'll win that week either, though.

Jacksonville OVER at Houston - Jacksonville looks like they play to the level of their opponent (except for the Indy game) and that is dangerous especially against another team that does that... like Houston. Houston tends to lose those games though.

at Kansas City OVER San Diego - This should be a GOOD game. San Diego really needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Plus, you always hear how the Chiefs don't lose in Arrowhead in December.

at Miami OVER Tennessee - Remember how I said that I like Nick Saban... plus the Titans seem to be in a win one, lose one cycle.

Detroit OVER at New Orleans - This is a tough game to pick if only because both of these teams stink. I would go with the home team, but they're playing in San Antonio.

Pittsburgh OVER at Cleveland - I am nothing if not stubborn, and I still don't like Pittsburgh. I think they aren't as good as their record, but they are certainly good enough to beat the Browns in Cleveland.

Indianapolis OVER at Seattle - According to Yahoo, Seattle is a 9 1/2 pt favorite over the Colts. I'm stunned. The best team, by far, in the NFL loses a game and they're giving up a touchdown AND a field goal. Granted Seattle has more to play for (they're trying to win home field advantage, which is more important considering their location) but the Colts will still want to prove last week wasn't something that could be easily duplicated.

at St. Louis OVER San Francisco - I'm going to guess that Reggie Bush will be a Niner next year.

at Tampa Bay OVER Atlanta - I just feel this downright need to point out that the NFC South is suspect. Both teams need this game but since it's in Tampa and Atlanta hasn't shown any fortitude, I'm going with Tampa.

Minnesota OVER at Baltimore - When a game comes along and one team needs a win more than another, all other things being equal, go with the team that is desperate. If the Ravens were playing any better (beating up on Green Bay doesn't count), I'ld have a problem with this pick.

Chicago OVER at Green Bay - Green Bay should shut it down since they still have a chance for the #1 pick. Even if they don't get Bush they could hope to get Matt Leinert who would surely be better than Aaron Rodgers was in Baltimore last Monday. ("Bite me in the butt" pick)

New England OVER at NY Jets - Last week I said Tom Brady has "Donovan McNabb syndrome" which sounds worse than I meant it to. Brady is certainly a very good QB, I just meant to compliment the team as whole more than put Brady down... Anyways I've got a weird feeling about this game. Don't know what it is, but I'm not willing to pick the Jets.

and Finally:

NY Giants OVER at Washington - In 2000, the Washington Redskins started the season 6-2. They had promise but hit one of those spans that a Norv Turner led team is bound to have. They followed that promising start by losing 3 of 4 by a total of 10 points. Entering Week 14 at 7-5, they NEEDED to beat the Giants at home to keep their playoff homes alive. They could only muster a single touchdown, giving up 3 field goals to lose on a freezing December day (I was there). Norv Turner was fired the next day. This game should be the test by which Joe Gibbs should be measured to his successor/predecessors.

Redskins 8-6, maybe not done but definitely not in.

The Colts loss today, and to me that practically assures them of winning the Super Bowl. Had they gone 16-0, I wouldn't have picked them to win the Super Bowl because I think there has to be much more pressure in the playoffs to win when you're "protecting" your record too.

The Redskins did to the Cowboys what the Giants did to the Skins almost 2 months ago: took advantage of home field, exposed weaknesses, and got lucky that their opponent really didn't show up. When you aren't a powerhouse, you'll probably end up having one of those kinds of games.

I mention these games because they are very similar in nature. They are setbacks which can at first mess with you, but in the end actually help you. Do you think the Colts will go into any game flat like they did against the Chargers. I assure you the Skins weren't going to go in flat in this game like they did against the Giants. And they shouldn't go in flat next week.

The main difference here is that the Colts can recover much easier. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they had their let down game late in the season. Mediocre to good teams are affected much more by this kind of game.

The Redskins ended up beating a weakened Eagles the week after the Giants loss and then lost 3 in a row, starting with a game lost to a bad call in Tampa Bay. The Redskins were fortunate to have two weak road opponents to work up their confidence to be able to beat the Cowboys. Now they're dangerous.

Here is the amazing part: If the Redskins were to miraculously win out they would practically be assured of a playoff spot. Even more miraculous would be if they won out AND the Giants lost to the Raiders (not gonna happen really...) in the last week of the season, the Redskins would be NFC East Champions. They would tie on the first tiebreaker (1-1 Head-to-Head) but they would win the second, divisional record (Redskins would be 5-1, Giants would be 4-2). I don't see it happening, but it certainly isn't impossible.
I doubt it will happen but if the Skins win out, beating the Giants next week, and the Giants lose to the Raiders the following week, the Redskins should be

Week 15 NFL Picks

Last week I made my regular picks as well as against the spread picks. Nice idea but bad implementation, because I haven't been able to find results against the spread. Plus I stupidly made a pick against the spread (Washington vs. Arizona) when I had already gone with the underdog. So in other words, I'm not doing that again.

Anyways I went a horrendous 9-7 straight up. (I really want to find a site that has against the spread results, because I picked a lot of the underdogs ATS in games where they won.) That killed my hope of getting to 60 right before getting 30 wrong... I am now 59-31. Now I need to get two good weeks to get to 80-40. We'll see.

Since I got so many wrong, I won't talk about all of them. I will, though, talk about the comments that now sound real good or real bad.

First the bad: So... contrary to what I wrote, there is a way Miami could beat San Diego (Sheesh! I said that and then immediately picked Miami against the spread!) . Also I missed both of my "bite me in the butt" picks. That is to say, I warned about a pick but got it right anyways (if that makes any sense). I picked Detroit over Green Bay ATS, and Pittsburgh over Chicago... warning about both picks... but both were good picks (Detroit covered the 6 1/2 pt spread, and Pittsburgh killed Chicago). I felt Atlanta wouldn't beat New Orleans by 10, but they did 36-17.

The good: I said I wanted to pick the Jets, but for some reason I didn't want to pick them against the Raiders... I did pick them ATS though. I "felt" the Texans would keep it close against the Titans... and they did, losing by a 3.

Anyways, now that college football is over the NFL moves a few games to Saturday, so I gotta make a bunch of quick picks.

Denver OVER at Buffalo - Denver certainly didn't cover the 10+ pt spread at home last week against Baltimore and now they are 8 1/2 pt favorites on the road against Buffalo. This is tough because ATS I would go with Buffalo.

at New England OVER Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay has play just one AFC team on the road, and lost to a bad Jets team early this year. I still think the NFC South (and North) teams are paper tigers. I also want to see New England show that they can still win without (or with a hobbled) Tom Brady. Good QB, but has Dononvan McNabb syndrome... his team makes him look better.

at NY Giants OVER Kansas City - Since this isn't exactly a serious picking/betting thing I do, I am now instituting another reverse karma picking scheme. But instead of just picking against the Redskins, I am going to pick with the Giants and with the Cowboys no matter who they play. In all honesty, I started this about 2 weeks ago with the Giants, but went against the Cowboys last week. (The 'Boys beat the Chiefs that week... )

at Houston OVER Arizona - Houston is eventually going to even mess up the Reggie Bush Sweepstakes and win one. This should be tough for the Texan fans since they'll watch a win and Reggie Bush possibly going to the Niners. Ouch!

Carolina OVER at New Orleans - Carolina reminds me of the '99 Redskins. An okay team that beat teams they should have beaten (blowing out 1 or 2 really bad teams), split the equally matched games, and lost to better teams (but didn't get blown out in any of their losses). The big difference is that Carolina's schedule seems really weak compared to what I remember the Skins season.

Atlanta OVER at Chicago - I normally try to make picks with my gut feeling, taking into account stats, standings, etc. but trying not to make too much of it. This time I am going against my instincts and going with the numbers. Statistically, Atlanta is #10 offensively and that will be the highest ranked offense the Bears will have seen since week 3. ("Bite me in the butt" pick)

Cincinnati OVER at Detroit - There really should be no discussion here aside from the 8 pt spread seems small.

at Indianapolis OVER San Diego - Last week I talked about this game in the San Diego vs. Miami spot because I didn't think Miami had any business giving SD a game. And SD lost a game they couldn't afford to mail in, because of their next week's opponent. Plus I stubbornly picked against Indy last week, and I can't do that twice in a row.

at Jacksonville OVER San Francisco - You know the whole idea of not wanting to play a good team after they have had a bad loss. Well, Jacksonville didn't exactly "loss bad" to Indy, but I get the feeling they seriously thought they could have won that game. I REALLY want to see a playoff rematch of those two teams.

at Miami OVER NY Jets - Although I watched all of about 30 seconds of the Jets/Raiders game, I'm willing to bet the Jets' win was more of an Oakland loss. Anyways, I actually like Miami...

at Oakland OVER Cleveland - Oakland has one win (against my Skins) in their last 6 games... In other words I REALLY want to pick against them... In fact, I will... make this one: Cleveland OVER at Oakland

at Minnesota OVER Pittsburgh - Remember how I said that Pittsburgh isn't good... Well the last impressive win they had (before last weeks beating of a BAD Chicago Bears was a week 6 win over Cincinnati. I don't trust Minnesota, but hey... ya gotta take chances.

Seattle OVER at Tennessee - I think I want to pick Seattle to beat the Colts if only because I want someone to beat the Colts. (Yes, that does go against my reverse karma theory) The problem is even though I like Seattle, I just think the Colts are too good. And once again I talk about a Colt's opponent the week before they actually play them....

at St. Louis OVER Philadelphia - One of the things I don't like is knowing who is favored. And this game is a reason why. I say I don't like picking favorites over and over, but that in itself is against that belief. Anyways, I'm going with the favorite and against my instincts on this one.

Dallas OVER at Washington - Remember how I said that you don't want to go into a game against a good team after they've had a bad loss. Well that applies to opponents who are equally matched with you too. It also works in reverse... you want an equally matched team to be coming off a close win, because they might still have a lingering doubt about their last game. Well, needless to say (even though I got last weeks pick wrong) I'm glad Dallas beat Kansas City with a little help from the refs and a missed field goal by KC.

at Baltimore OVER Green Bay - Someone should have told Green Bay that if they wanted a shot at Reggie Bush, they should have missed that field goal against Detroit. Oh well, they'll have to hope someone stupidly trades the next Brett Favre to them like Atlanta did a few years ago.

Violating the Dulles Toll Road

A friend of mine once told me about how he was heading out to Charlestown, WV. He took the Dulles Toll Road part of the way. Being unfamiliar with the Toll Road he drove right through the fast lane. He didn't have a Smart Tag and, of course, all the lights and bells went off. He said he noticed it in his rearview mirror, but didn't want to stop. He figured they would send him something in the mail. Nothing ever came.

Well, shockingly, VDOT has admitted that there is nothing in place to catch people. The bells and whistles are just and only that. The camera looking thing is just for show too. So if no cop is around and the toll people don't get your license plate, you're good.

I understand the costs might not have been worth the benefits in the beginning... but why admit this now?! It's going to be about a year until they have real cameras in fall of 2006. So until then, be daring... go ahead and violate the tolls on the Dulles Toll Raod.

Redskins 7-6, and I'm not changing my tune

This weekend, the Redskins got lucky and kept their faint playoff hopes alive. They would have to win out to have a chance, but I wouldn't hold my breath considering how they played on sunday.

The passing offense was atrocious giving up 3 INT (not all were entirely Brunell's fault), but its not like the defense was all roses. They were fortunate the Cardinals didn't have a running game, because the Cards actually had a chance to win it with just a passing game.

What did impress me about the Redskins is that the defense caused and recovered fumbles. Those were the turnovers the Redskins weren't recovering early in the year. In fact, by comparison, those were the types of turnovers that keep the Giants winning games with a statistically not so good defense but an excellent number of turnover (2nd in the league).

And talking about the Giants, they got lucky in overtime against a bad Eagles team. The Cowboys also got luck against the Chiefs, getting an extra set of downs from hthe refs and then the Cheifs missed a makeable game tying field goal. So I guess the good luck was running rampant in the NFC East (except of course for the Eagles).

NFL Week 14 Picks

Last week I spoke of a picking theory. The "theory" (although that is a lofty name for it) only applies to about 3 or 4 teams per year. It is a pretty basic idea predicated on, early in the season, finding two types teams: those that are really bad and will go 4-12 or worse, and those that will be really good and will go 12-4 or better. What you then do is pick against the really bad teams and with the really good teams all season.

There are usually about 5 or 6 "dogs" (bad teams) each year. (This year there is an unusually high number of dogs, about 10.) The trick is to, by week 3 or 4, figure out the "top dogs." This year there are 2 top dogs, Houston and San Francisco. That's not to say they will be the only teams to go 4-12 (or worse), but they are the only that are SURE to be that bad. (Last year the dogs were San Francisco and Miami)

On the other end, there are "winners." Winners are teams that should win at least 12 games. This year there is only one, Indianapolis. Once again, Indy might not be the only team to win 12 or more, but they are the only ones that were good enough to be assured of it. (Last year, it was Indy and New England).

As I stated in the beginning, this only helps you for about 4 teams a year, but for those games you are assured to be 48-16 or better. You, of course, have to pick the dogs to lose and winners to win in those first few weeks of the season (before you christening them as dogs and winners) to have that record. But that shouldn't be too hard because the dogs shouldn't be expect to win (and vice-versa for winners) in the first place. Granted it's sort of a passive way to pick games and it probably won't get you a prize (on it's own), but it's not terrible idea either.

This week I'm making straight picks and against the spread (ATS) picks. If I pick a favorite, I'll put my ATS pick at the end of the paragraph. If I pick an underdog, I'm obviously picking them against the spread, so I might not make mention of the spread.

Anywho, here they are:

at Carolina OVER Tampa Bay - To me the NFC South and NFC North teams are all paper tigers... especially their highly ranked defenses. The Bucs and Panthers have #2 and #4 ranked defense, but they've been playing against really bad offenses. I'll go with the veteran offense on this one. (ATS: Bucs)

at Cincinnati OVER Cleveland - The Bengals are 12 pt favorites, and I'ld still take them against the spread. (ATS: Cincy)

Kansas City OVER at Dallas - There is just no love for the Chiefs. And the last time I said that they lost to the Bills.

at Denver OVER Baltimore - Jake Plummer threw two INT last week. Are we seeing the old Plummer here? Either way, this 14 pt spread is too big. (ATS: Baltimore)

at Green Bay OVER Detroit - Here's a weird stat: Green Bay is 2-10 with the #8 defense and the #8 passing offense. This is a night game in Green Bay and there is a chance of snow. This game will be decided by what Brett Favre shows up. (ATS: Detroit) (This will be my ATS "bite me in the butt" game)

at Jacksonville OVER Indianapolis - I know I wrote all that go with the "winner" stuff, but I've decided to be bold and go with my instinct from about a month ago. The rest of the Jaguars have so many reasons to step it up, but I think the biggest (yes bigger than the Colts unbeaten season) is to prove that this team isn't dependant on Byron Leftwich.

at Minnesota OVER St. Louis - Remember how I said I would make my Minnesota will win the NFC North prediction this week? Well I'm insane for ever thinking that. I thought it because I didn't think the Bears were all that good... the Vikings might be a better team than the Bears now, but I don't see them winning more games than the Bears lose. (ATS: Minnesota)

New England OVER at Buffalo - The Pats are barely 3 1/2 pt favorites. Buffalo has yet to win on the Road, and now they're gonna be within a TD? I don't think so. (ATS: New England)

NY Giants OVER at Philadelphia - A few weeks ago, I stuningly thought this would be a close game. Remember how I'm insane. Anyways, the 9 pt line in this game is just right. (ATS: Giants)

Oakland OVER at NY Jets - I don't think I've picked the Jets once this year, and I really WANT to pick them at some point even though it would be REDICULOUS. This would be a candidate for it because you never know what the Raiders are gonna do, but the Jets just suck... (ATS: Oakland)

at Pittsburgh OVER Chicago - Remember how last week I pointed out that Chicago hasn't played a top offense since week 5 (not surprisingly their last loss)? Well their soft schedule contines against the #20 offense Steelers. But this time they're not playing an NFC softie like the teams they've been racking up wins against. The 6 1/2 pt line is too big, though. I'm thinking this game will be about 10-13. (ATS: Chicago) (This will be my straight "bite me in the butt" pick because if you remember... I don't respect the Steelers either)

at San Diego OVER Miami - The glamour beat the Colts pick, is next weeks Chargers game. San Diego is good, but they'ld have to do it at Indy. Why did i bring that up? Because there is NO WAY Miami should win this game. Another well placed spread... (ATS: Miami)

at Seattle OVER San Francisco - This is a 16 pt spread... It's too tempting, especially considering their last game was a 27-25 squeaker for Seattle. (ATS: San Fran)

at Tennessee OVER Houston - Houston is one of my "top dogs" but they've had two close losses in the past two weeks. Why that makes me think they'll keep it close on the road is kinda stupid... I still feel it though. (ATS: Houston)

at Arizona OVER Washington - I continue my stubborn streak. The interesting line here is that Arizona is #1 in passing offense, and the Skins are #10 in passing defense. I'm stunned, because the Skins defensive line gets NO penetration, making it impossible for the secondary, who has to keep cover for what seems like an eternity. This'll be interesting. (ATS: Washington)

at Atlanta OVER New Orleans - I wish I could bet on the chances of Monday Night Football playing "It's a Family Affair" by Sly and The Family Stone because of the whole Aaron Brooks and Michael Vick. This a 10 1/2 pt spread here, and the last time Atlanta beat anyone by more than 10 was back on Oct. 2nd. (ATS: New Orleans)

Shockingly, I actually like other teams besides the Redskins

• I'm not a hundred percent sure I'll be saying the same thing in a few months, but right now I like the Nats trading for Alfonso Soriano. Much like SuperNoVa over at Nats Blog, I liked Brad Wilkerson, but I'm not as dissapointed.
  
  Now I don't want to defend the trade by knocking Wilkerson, but even the NatsBlog listed Wilkerson as the 10th most valuable "thing" for the Nats. It might sound high, but it's still behind Nick Johnson's, Jose Guillen's, Ryan Church's and Brian Schneider's bats. That pretty much leaves him more valuable than Vinny Castilla's, Christian Guzman's and Jose Vidro's bat (and Vidro spent alot of the season hurt). I guess I'm willing to make that trade for a former All-Star who has home run power.
  
  
• So it's obvious that I've been quiet about the Wizards. They were playing well enough through the season, and were in a close game when they lost their first game against the Clippers. Then they blowout Seattle and beat the defending champion Spurs. So everything is looking good, and then they lose 5 in a row. Now they can't get any consistency, alternating wins and loses. They only bright spot is that their 8-9 record is good enough for second place in the Southeast Division... strangely it would be good enough for first place in the Atlantic Division but last place in the Central.
  
  
• I obviously know very little about hockey, because, contrary to what I said earlier, the Caps ARE as bad as people were saying they were going to be. They have the least number of points in the Eastern Conference, and have more wins than just three teams: Pittsburgh, Columbus and St. Louis. Strangely tickets are still going for more than $80 in the lower level.
  
  
• I certainly was spoiled back when the Terps made 3 straight bowl games and won 10 or more games in each of those season. They even went to big name bowls (Orange, Peach and Gator) and now, after two consecutive 5-6 (one win away from bowl eligiblity), I'ld settle for the Holiday or Independence Bowl.
  Now, I'm not insane enough to complain about Ralph Friedgen yet... especially considering how things have gotten harder in ACC football with the additions of Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College. I just wanted to express my sadness on the matter.
  
  
• I've also been spoiled with the Terps basketball making 9 or 10 straight NCAA tournaments... and winning it all in 2002. I know, they get a multiyear pass because of the championship, so I can stand the loss to Gonzaga. But yet another loss to George freaking Washington?! Please!
  

Spaceport, New Mexico

It appears that if you are planning on buying a ticket into space with Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic you're probably going to have to get yourself to New Mexico first. Although flights will first leave from the Californian Mojave Desert, they will, once the spaceport is finished, depart just north of Las Cruces, NM. Once I have $200,000 to throw around, I'll be on the flight...

All I want for Christmas...

Are you wondering what to get me? Well, wonder no more! Just go to Excitations.com and pick out the Skipper for a year. $3310 a little to much? Well how about the DC United experience for $1400. Still too much? Well I'ld surely invite you if you got me the Private Yacht Cruise on the Potomac for $1250.

Okay so in all honesty, Excitations is a pretty good idea if you don't know what to get for someone. Most gifts are expensive, some are a little lame ($65 Photo Safari), some are WAYoverpriced ($70 paintball and $60 rock climbing) but some are priced right ($75 segway tour, $250 skydiving). Plus I think they give you a nice wrapped box which explains the gift.

Redskins 6-6 and still done, my pick review and more.

This past week I went 11-5. (Although my pigheaded/reverse karma choice of picking against the Skins cost me a much more repectable 12-4) My season record is now 50-24, not bad but I fell like I should have done better.

In fact here is where I went wrong with my misses:

Green Bay losses to Chicago. I've never been a big Brett Favre fan, but I still believed in his Soldier Field winning streak. The Bears defense is good, but I still stand by my list of simply AWFUL offenses they have played.

Denver losses to Kansas City. I still believe in Denver, and it helps that Mike Shanahan seems to understand Jake Plummer, considering he doesn't exactly trust him when the game is on the line.

Pittsburgh losses to Cincinnati. I coped out last and picked an easy game (Skins vs. Rams) as the "bite me in the butt" pick. I should have gone with this one. Remember how I reiterated my feelings from the beginning of the season: that the Steelers aren't that good? Well Cincinnati still might not be experience enough for the rest of the league, but they are good enough against a Steelers team who just might not make it into the playoffs.

New Orleans losses to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay barely beats a team that I am now (way too late) making the Saints a "dog." Tampa should show their true colors in the next few weeks though... but they'll probably still get one of the wild cards.

St. Louis losses to Washington. Going into the 4th quarter this past Sunday, the Redskins led a sorry St. Louis Rams, 10-7. Surprisingly, they decided to keep the lead this time and actually add to it, making the final score 24-9.


Finally here is why this win is good, but not exactly all that good:

Towards the end of every season, your team will fit into one of 3 categories: playoff teams, playoff miss teams and bad teams. (each category has it's own subcategories, but for this explanation, these will do.) Right now the Redskins are looking like a playoff miss team. Normally this wouldn't be very good because that would mean a pick in the 20s. But since the Redskins traded away their 2006 first round pick, it doesn't matter. So this year, I can truly root for them to win, so the pick (now owned by the Denver Broncos) will be later in the first round.

If they still owned the pick I would have rooted for their losing streak to continue in hopes of getting an earlier first round pick. This "rooting against" your team so they get a higher draft pick is one of the weirder parts of being a sports fan. (I made a mention of it in an earlier post and Bill Simmons write about it in his picks for week 13.) They even name the race for last place after the likely #1 pick, using terms like this year's Reggie Bush Sweepstakes and 1996's Peyton Manning Bowl featuring the NY Giants vs. NY Jets (although Manning stayed another year at Tennessee and ended up going to the Colts in 98).

Some might argue that you should never root against your team, and there is a point to that belief. Great teams can be built with a little luck and good front office decisions, the Patriots being the poster child for this. But consistantly picking in the mid teens to upper 20s doesn't leave much to look forward to.

Just ask the Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, and Pittsburgh Steelers. Each one of these teams have spent the past 10 years, barely missing the playoffs or making them only to be beaten by a better team. Some have had bad years, but not consistently. (The Eagles and Steelers have gone the farthest but have had the same results as the rest.)

I think there is something to be said about how the winners of the last 6 Super Bowls (Patriots, Buccaneers, Ravens/Browns, and Rams) have all come from being consistently bad teams to Super Bowl champions. You have to go back to 1999's Denver Broncos to see a team that won after years of being good.

So finally, having said all that, even though the Skins don't have a first round pick next year, I see them continuing this "okay/good" team rut. And that is just not good, because they'll need something drastic to get over that hump.

thoughts for the day...

• You're probably familiar with my interest in cryptozoology as well as exctinct and endangered species. So this story piqued my interest: A previously unknown mammal was photographed in Borneo recently.
  
  
• Remember the "you're getting a dell!" guy? Remember how everyone wanted to kill him? Well, I officially want to stab the guy who does the tv commerical for a game called "Riff." The guy dresses up and acts like different music genres (even dressing like Robert Palmer's famous actress video). Apparently it's some sort of music trivia dvd game... and there is not a chance I am buying it.
  
  
• There are two houses in my neighborhood I don't like. One puts moth balls in their yard and the other has these "no dogs, no children" pesticide signs which are WAY too old to be valid. The moth balls do nothing to deter my dog from sniffing up the area, and the signs would only keep a responsible pet owner (and their pet) away. But a responsible pet owner already picks up after their dog, so it's pretty useless. I wish my dog would pee or drop a deuce on their lawns, but he's already gone by that time...
  
  

New England Aquarium Penguin Story Redux

Remember the penguin story that was from a friend of a friend? Back when I wrote of it, I mentioned how it reeked of an urban legend. I even looked around and found no mention of it, even on Snopes.com. So I repeated it.

Well, eventually the aquarium got wind of the story and decided to comment. So here it is fully debunked at the Boston Globe.

NFL Week 13 Picks

Remember how I commented awhile back how Taylor Jacobs looked slow? Well obviously I don't follow the Redskins that much because I didn't remember that he had gotten hurt earlier this year. The Post has an article about how he has potential but he keeps getting hurt. In it he says that he's not entirely healed... so I'll blame that for his performance in the Oakland game. Anyways, I'm still going through with my threat of picking against the Redskins for the rest of the year.

This week the "against the Skins" pick definitely looks bad. (In fact, I'm making it my "bite me in the butt" pick. I sort of have two of these this week.) The Skins are going against a rookie QB (from Harvard) who brought the Rams back from certain defeat against the Texans last week. The Redskins have just one loss to a team with less than 7 wins this season (Oakland). The Rams have two and they're doozies... 49ers and Cardinals.

The only thing the Rams have going for them is that they are playing in St. Louis. (But, their last home game was a loss to the Cardinals.) No matter though, I am sure the Redskins will find a way to keep this game close and maybe even win it. Then all the coaches will talk about how "this is a first step", and "they keep fighting", and "they need not look past Arizona." Ugh... I can't wait.

Anyways... on to this week's picks!

Arizona OVER at San Francisco - So I have a picking theory, that I'll expound on in another post, where you pick "dogs" for the season. My season top dogs are San Francisco and Houston.

at Baltimore OVER Houston - Since you could just reread the previous pick, I'll use this space to mention that Baltimore and Arizona are secondary dogs. These games are gonna be FUN!

at Carolina OVER Atlanta - I always say that "I hate to keep going with favorites.." but there is usually a good reason why teams are favored. In this case I agree. Carolina has laid two eggs the past two weeks and won one. I only see one reason why Atlanta should beat Carolina... Michael Vick. BTW I think any game in which I pick against Michael Vick should automatically be a "bite me in the butt" pick.

Green Bay OVER at Chicago - 21st, 25th, 26th, 27th, 17th, 32nd, 23rd, and 22nd. That is the offensive ranking of Chicago's last 8 opponents. Look at their weak schedule, so trust me they're doomed for a repeat of their 2001-02 season. Plus Brett Favre is about 113-0 at Soldier Field.

Denver OVER at Kansas City - I'm beginning to believe in Denver, even though Jake Plummer is the QB and they got lucky against the Redskins or better put, the Redskins sent back the gift wrapped victory the Broncos handed them at Mile High.

at Indianapolis OVER Tennessee - I would only pick against Indy if it were away and on grass. They only have 2 more away games, Seattle and Jacksonville, and Seattle has FieldTurf. We'll see next week if I've got the mettle to pick the Jaguars next week.

Jacksonville OVER at Cleveland - This game has trap written all over it. Cleveland has it in them to beat the Jaguars, it just depends on if the Jaguars have it in them to stay in this game, and not next weeks game.

at Miami OVER Buffalo - I'm going with Miami with Nick Saban (who I'm not down on yet) at home over Buffalo who has yet to win on the road.

Minnesota OVER at Detroit - Remember how a few weeks ago I said if Minnesota beat Green Bay at Lambeau, I would pick them to win the NFC North? Well I checked Chicago's schedule and I'm catiously optimistic. After this weekend, I'm making the call.

at New England OVER NY Jets - Betting wise, I'ld take the 10 pt underdog Jets to beat the spread.

at NY Giants OVER Dallas - Eli plays well at home and Dallas doesn't seem to run the ball well enough to win on the road... In fact, aside from the Philly debacle, they haven't won on the road since September... at San Francisco!

at Pittsburgh OVER Cincinnati - Remember how at the beginning of this season, I said I didn't like Pittsburgh's offense? Well, they are currently ranked #24 (#26 passing) and I don't think it's because Ben Roethlisberger has been hurt. Anyways, I'm only picking the Steelers because they're at home and because the Bengals are too young.

at San Diego OVER Oakland - The two teams that recently beat the Redskins so I can say this with confidence: Oakland stinks and San Diego doesn't. But trust me, that doesn't say much about San Diego. (And it says even less about the Skins.)

at New Orleans OVER Tampa Bay - Remember how Tampa Bay sucks? Well, the Saints have been doing remarkably well all things considered... They've only been blown out once (at Lambeau Field 52-3). The Bucs will probably make it a close game though.

at St. Louis OVER Washington - Every so often, I think to myself: Why torture myself watching the Skins... So this is my revenge of sorts.


Seattle at OVER Philadelphia - Kinda looks like Philly over Seattle is the glamour upset pick for NFL picks around the country. And just because the Seahawks couldn't put the Giants away. But, I am not picking a team who's only victory on the road came because Kansas City shut it down after going up big in the first quarter. BTW, check out who "fueled" the Eagles comeback against the Chiefs with 11 catches for 171 yards and a TD. None other than Señor TO.