NFL Week 17 Picks

I know I've been writing a lot about the NFL, and not much about other things, but what can I say. I'm looking forward to a bunch of stuff (including American Idol) but considering the Redskins are involved in important games, the NFL is tops on my blogging mind.

So, two weeks ago I got to 70-36 on my picks for the season. This past week I went with my intuition and got 9-7 bringing me to 79-43 for the season. Had I actually not been so stubborn (picking against the Redskins for the rest of the season), I would have gone 10-6. Ahhh, Hindsight!

I need to go 11-4 to get to a respectable 90-47. Unfortunately, the last week is probably the most unpredictable, because at this point you have about 18 teams that have nothing to play for but "respect" and about 5 or 6 teams playing for wildcard spots or divisional titles. The only thing you can count on is that no one wants to enter the playoffs with a loss.

Anyhoo here go my crazy ideas:

NY Giants OVER at Oakland - The Giants need to win to assure themselves of the NFC East divisional title. They also don't want to start the playoffs with two straight loses. Plus, in case you don't remember, the Raiders are led by one Norval Eugene Turner... ah the irony.

at San Diego OVER Denver - A tough pick because Denver has been playing well of late, so they don't NEED to win (like the Giants). The Chargers, though, are a schizo team, and they haven't lost two in a row since the beginning of the season. Will they bookend this season with back-to-back loses? I don't think so and neither does Las Vegas, since they're 10 pt favorites. BTW, this is one of those times that picking against the spread would be easier. (obviously I would pick Denver and the points)

Baltimore OVER at Cleveland OVER Baltimore - The Ravens were told Brian Billick would be returning next season.... ahhh for schadenfreude. At least the Browns still suck.

at NY Jets OVER Buffalo - I remember saying that I wanted to pick the Jets once... well here I go.

at Atlanta OVER Carolina - If the Redskins make the playoffs, one of the two teams I would like them to play on the road is the Carolina Panthers.

at Dallas OVER St. Louis - By the time this game starts, the Cowboys will know if they are playing for playoff spot. Not that it matters because the Rams are awful.

at Green Bay OVER Seattle - Yet another spread that is being determined by the fact that the playoff team has nothing to play for. Even though I think Brett Favre is overrated, he is a gamer who will take advantage of the fact that Seattle has everything wrapped up. I can definitely see this being his last game, since he'll probably play well and it's at Lambeau.

at San Francisco OVER Houston - The Niners ruined everything for their fans last week by beating the Rams. Next year they'll be picking at #3 or #4, not even able to trade the rights to Matt Leinert. Now it's Houston's turn. My only fear is that they are so inept, they'll mess that up too.

at Indianapolis OVER Arizona - The "savvy" popular pick here is to go with Arizona. But remember what I said about not going into the playoffs with a loss. Well you certainly don't want to go in with 3 loses in a row after going 13-0. I would be very hesitant to pick Indy to win it all, if they lost this game, because they would have an entire month of loses and inactivity going into a playoff game. That just can't be good.

at Jacksonville OVER Tennessee - Jacksonville certainly doesn't need to win this game, because they can't do any better than a wild card because of the Colts. Even though they haven't really beaten anyone soundly, I still like them. They sort of remind me of the 2000 Ravens, without the hyped defense.

at Kansas City OVER Cincinnati - If San Diego (who is out of the playoffs) wins on Saturday, this game will mean nothing. I'll keep going with Kansas City at home in December.

Chicago OVER at Minnesota - A few weeks ago this game looked important. Even last week it looked promising until the Vikings lost at Baltimore. Now it may determine if Mike Tice is back in Minnesota next year.

at New England OVER Miami - Remember the whole Florida teams don't play well in cold weather? Well, as much as I like what Nick Saban has done, I still think that applies.

at Pittsburgh OVER Detroit - I like Matt Millen because he helped the Skins win a Super Bowl. Having said that, what can someone explain to me exactly what qualified him to be a team president? Deion Sanders played in NFL and went on to become a commentator.... and he wants to be a head coach, but no one is handing him the reigns to their team.

at Tampa Bay OVER New Orleans - If the Redskins make into the playoffs, the team I would love to see the Redskins play is the Tampa Bay Bucs. I mean LOVE! When you loses a game to a bad call, you want it back, bad. And that would be exactly what the Skins need.

at Philadelphia OVER Washington - Really, what can I say?

Have a happy new year!

A New Year for movies

some of the movies I am looking forward to in 2006:

Lady in the Water - M. Night Shyamalan
The Da Vinci Code
The Fantastic Mr. Fox - if it actually comes out in 2006

TV/Remakes/Sequels:

Mission Impossible III - I know Tom Cruise is insane but that didn't keep me from seeing War of the Worlds either.
Superman Returns - My childhood favorite movie returns. Just hearing the theme song in the trailer give me goosebumps.
The Pink Panther - It Doesn't actually look all that good, but I like Steve Martin.
Pirates of the Carribean II - I'm a fan of Johnny Depp but I pegged him as one of those actors who wouldn't keep coming back to the same role. But he's filming Pirates III right now.
Miami Vice - I'm not as big a fan of Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx as the rest of world (or maybe just Hollywood) is but I'll give one of my childhood TV shows a chance. I know... bad reason, but I'ld see an A-Team, Riptide and/or Cheers movie too.

Bush Drinking?

I used to watch the Late Late Show back when Craig Kilborn was host. When Kilborn left, it became stagnant and formulaic. I was interested when Craig Ferguson was named host, but it didn't seem to come out of the post-Kilborn lull (or at least it was slow in being interesting). This clip is pretty funny... so I might check it out again.
EDIT: The link is dead but thanks to Youtube we have this:

Redskins, 9-6 and not quite done yet.

I am now, for a week, a Norv Turner fan. What last week I, in essence, called impossible, is now slightly more probable. If the Redskins beat the Eagles up in Philly (can happen) and the Giants lose at Oakland (probably won't happen), the Redskins would be NFC East Champions. Probably not deserving, since champions shouldn't lose 6 of 8 straight in the middle of the season.... but hey, you can't complain about having at least one home playoff game.

I wrote yesterday that this game will mark (at least the beginning) of Joe Gibbs' second coming. I stand by it. This was a game that a Norv Turner led, or Steve Spurrier led team would have lost. In fact, either of those two teams would have probably lost last week too.

Before last year the last time I saw a Gibbs led team I was 16 years old. Pretty young, but not young enough to miss that a good football team wins games they're supposed to win and also good number of the evenly matched games. So I watched the past few years as the Redskins would have good teams, but lose the close ones and the ones they were supposed to win. But this is the difference Gibbs makes.

It even looks like the defense is starting to not just play well, but also not give up the big plays. The only touchdown given up by the Skins defense was a fluke. Eli Manning overthrew his first reciever, who fortuitously tipped it to a diving Amani Toomer. The other TD was a interception return.

The skins are gelling at the PEFECT time, a bit late but not too late. At least they control their playoff hopes... win and they're in. A little earlier and they could control their conference championship hopes. Oh well, I would rather see them win well, like this week and last week, than win a conference championship and lose in their first playoff game.

NFL Week 16 picks

Ah... Christmas. The bulk of the games are now on Saturday so I'm writing today....

Last week I went a more respectable 11-5. Not great, but not bad considering a few things. One of my misses was because of my continued picking against the Redskins. Another miss was when I "took a chance" and went with Minnesota. (I'll try not to do that again) And finally, two picks I missed (Atlanta vs. Chicago and Philadelphia vs. St. Louis) were picks were I blatantly went against my instincts saying "This time I am going against my instincts and going with the numbers." and "I'm going with the favorite and against my instincts on this one."

The only bad miss was San Diego beating Indianapolis. I should have known Marty Schottenheimer had in his team. I talk a lot of smack about Marty (I really don't want to write his last name again), but he's really not all that bad. There are definitely worse coaches in the league, it's just that Marty can make for a schizo team. (like the 2001 Redskins).

So needless to say, it's all instincts for these picks

Philadelphia OVER at Arizona - As I said earlier I went against Philly last week even though I thought they would win. Not gonna do that again...

at Carolina OVER Dallas - This is a tough one. As I wrote earlier this week, the kind of loss Dallas had is not good at the end of the year. If they were playing a bad team I could see a chance... the problem is that I don't think Carolina all that good. (remember they're in the NFC South)

at Cincinnati OVER Buffalo - I don't have anything to say except that Cincy should roll here...

at Denver OVER Oakland - I will be rooting for Norville Turner's team next week, since they will be playing the Giants. I don't think they'll win that week either, though.

Jacksonville OVER at Houston - Jacksonville looks like they play to the level of their opponent (except for the Indy game) and that is dangerous especially against another team that does that... like Houston. Houston tends to lose those games though.

at Kansas City OVER San Diego - This should be a GOOD game. San Diego really needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Plus, you always hear how the Chiefs don't lose in Arrowhead in December.

at Miami OVER Tennessee - Remember how I said that I like Nick Saban... plus the Titans seem to be in a win one, lose one cycle.

Detroit OVER at New Orleans - This is a tough game to pick if only because both of these teams stink. I would go with the home team, but they're playing in San Antonio.

Pittsburgh OVER at Cleveland - I am nothing if not stubborn, and I still don't like Pittsburgh. I think they aren't as good as their record, but they are certainly good enough to beat the Browns in Cleveland.

Indianapolis OVER at Seattle - According to Yahoo, Seattle is a 9 1/2 pt favorite over the Colts. I'm stunned. The best team, by far, in the NFL loses a game and they're giving up a touchdown AND a field goal. Granted Seattle has more to play for (they're trying to win home field advantage, which is more important considering their location) but the Colts will still want to prove last week wasn't something that could be easily duplicated.

at St. Louis OVER San Francisco - I'm going to guess that Reggie Bush will be a Niner next year.

at Tampa Bay OVER Atlanta - I just feel this downright need to point out that the NFC South is suspect. Both teams need this game but since it's in Tampa and Atlanta hasn't shown any fortitude, I'm going with Tampa.

Minnesota OVER at Baltimore - When a game comes along and one team needs a win more than another, all other things being equal, go with the team that is desperate. If the Ravens were playing any better (beating up on Green Bay doesn't count), I'ld have a problem with this pick.

Chicago OVER at Green Bay - Green Bay should shut it down since they still have a chance for the #1 pick. Even if they don't get Bush they could hope to get Matt Leinert who would surely be better than Aaron Rodgers was in Baltimore last Monday. ("Bite me in the butt" pick)

New England OVER at NY Jets - Last week I said Tom Brady has "Donovan McNabb syndrome" which sounds worse than I meant it to. Brady is certainly a very good QB, I just meant to compliment the team as whole more than put Brady down... Anyways I've got a weird feeling about this game. Don't know what it is, but I'm not willing to pick the Jets.

and Finally:

NY Giants OVER at Washington - In 2000, the Washington Redskins started the season 6-2. They had promise but hit one of those spans that a Norv Turner led team is bound to have. They followed that promising start by losing 3 of 4 by a total of 10 points. Entering Week 14 at 7-5, they NEEDED to beat the Giants at home to keep their playoff homes alive. They could only muster a single touchdown, giving up 3 field goals to lose on a freezing December day (I was there). Norv Turner was fired the next day. This game should be the test by which Joe Gibbs should be measured to his successor/predecessors.

Redskins 8-6, maybe not done but definitely not in.

The Colts loss today, and to me that practically assures them of winning the Super Bowl. Had they gone 16-0, I wouldn't have picked them to win the Super Bowl because I think there has to be much more pressure in the playoffs to win when you're "protecting" your record too.

The Redskins did to the Cowboys what the Giants did to the Skins almost 2 months ago: took advantage of home field, exposed weaknesses, and got lucky that their opponent really didn't show up. When you aren't a powerhouse, you'll probably end up having one of those kinds of games.

I mention these games because they are very similar in nature. They are setbacks which can at first mess with you, but in the end actually help you. Do you think the Colts will go into any game flat like they did against the Chargers. I assure you the Skins weren't going to go in flat in this game like they did against the Giants. And they shouldn't go in flat next week.

The main difference here is that the Colts can recover much easier. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they had their let down game late in the season. Mediocre to good teams are affected much more by this kind of game.

The Redskins ended up beating a weakened Eagles the week after the Giants loss and then lost 3 in a row, starting with a game lost to a bad call in Tampa Bay. The Redskins were fortunate to have two weak road opponents to work up their confidence to be able to beat the Cowboys. Now they're dangerous.

Here is the amazing part: If the Redskins were to miraculously win out they would practically be assured of a playoff spot. Even more miraculous would be if they won out AND the Giants lost to the Raiders (not gonna happen really...) in the last week of the season, the Redskins would be NFC East Champions. They would tie on the first tiebreaker (1-1 Head-to-Head) but they would win the second, divisional record (Redskins would be 5-1, Giants would be 4-2). I don't see it happening, but it certainly isn't impossible.
I doubt it will happen but if the Skins win out, beating the Giants next week, and the Giants lose to the Raiders the following week, the Redskins should be

Week 15 NFL Picks

Last week I made my regular picks as well as against the spread picks. Nice idea but bad implementation, because I haven't been able to find results against the spread. Plus I stupidly made a pick against the spread (Washington vs. Arizona) when I had already gone with the underdog. So in other words, I'm not doing that again.

Anyways I went a horrendous 9-7 straight up. (I really want to find a site that has against the spread results, because I picked a lot of the underdogs ATS in games where they won.) That killed my hope of getting to 60 right before getting 30 wrong... I am now 59-31. Now I need to get two good weeks to get to 80-40. We'll see.

Since I got so many wrong, I won't talk about all of them. I will, though, talk about the comments that now sound real good or real bad.

First the bad: So... contrary to what I wrote, there is a way Miami could beat San Diego (Sheesh! I said that and then immediately picked Miami against the spread!) . Also I missed both of my "bite me in the butt" picks. That is to say, I warned about a pick but got it right anyways (if that makes any sense). I picked Detroit over Green Bay ATS, and Pittsburgh over Chicago... warning about both picks... but both were good picks (Detroit covered the 6 1/2 pt spread, and Pittsburgh killed Chicago). I felt Atlanta wouldn't beat New Orleans by 10, but they did 36-17.

The good: I said I wanted to pick the Jets, but for some reason I didn't want to pick them against the Raiders... I did pick them ATS though. I "felt" the Texans would keep it close against the Titans... and they did, losing by a 3.

Anyways, now that college football is over the NFL moves a few games to Saturday, so I gotta make a bunch of quick picks.

Denver OVER at Buffalo - Denver certainly didn't cover the 10+ pt spread at home last week against Baltimore and now they are 8 1/2 pt favorites on the road against Buffalo. This is tough because ATS I would go with Buffalo.

at New England OVER Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay has play just one AFC team on the road, and lost to a bad Jets team early this year. I still think the NFC South (and North) teams are paper tigers. I also want to see New England show that they can still win without (or with a hobbled) Tom Brady. Good QB, but has Dononvan McNabb syndrome... his team makes him look better.

at NY Giants OVER Kansas City - Since this isn't exactly a serious picking/betting thing I do, I am now instituting another reverse karma picking scheme. But instead of just picking against the Redskins, I am going to pick with the Giants and with the Cowboys no matter who they play. In all honesty, I started this about 2 weeks ago with the Giants, but went against the Cowboys last week. (The 'Boys beat the Chiefs that week... )

at Houston OVER Arizona - Houston is eventually going to even mess up the Reggie Bush Sweepstakes and win one. This should be tough for the Texan fans since they'll watch a win and Reggie Bush possibly going to the Niners. Ouch!

Carolina OVER at New Orleans - Carolina reminds me of the '99 Redskins. An okay team that beat teams they should have beaten (blowing out 1 or 2 really bad teams), split the equally matched games, and lost to better teams (but didn't get blown out in any of their losses). The big difference is that Carolina's schedule seems really weak compared to what I remember the Skins season.

Atlanta OVER at Chicago - I normally try to make picks with my gut feeling, taking into account stats, standings, etc. but trying not to make too much of it. This time I am going against my instincts and going with the numbers. Statistically, Atlanta is #10 offensively and that will be the highest ranked offense the Bears will have seen since week 3. ("Bite me in the butt" pick)

Cincinnati OVER at Detroit - There really should be no discussion here aside from the 8 pt spread seems small.

at Indianapolis OVER San Diego - Last week I talked about this game in the San Diego vs. Miami spot because I didn't think Miami had any business giving SD a game. And SD lost a game they couldn't afford to mail in, because of their next week's opponent. Plus I stubbornly picked against Indy last week, and I can't do that twice in a row.

at Jacksonville OVER San Francisco - You know the whole idea of not wanting to play a good team after they have had a bad loss. Well, Jacksonville didn't exactly "loss bad" to Indy, but I get the feeling they seriously thought they could have won that game. I REALLY want to see a playoff rematch of those two teams.

at Miami OVER NY Jets - Although I watched all of about 30 seconds of the Jets/Raiders game, I'm willing to bet the Jets' win was more of an Oakland loss. Anyways, I actually like Miami...

at Oakland OVER Cleveland - Oakland has one win (against my Skins) in their last 6 games... In other words I REALLY want to pick against them... In fact, I will... make this one: Cleveland OVER at Oakland

at Minnesota OVER Pittsburgh - Remember how I said that Pittsburgh isn't good... Well the last impressive win they had (before last weeks beating of a BAD Chicago Bears was a week 6 win over Cincinnati. I don't trust Minnesota, but hey... ya gotta take chances.

Seattle OVER at Tennessee - I think I want to pick Seattle to beat the Colts if only because I want someone to beat the Colts. (Yes, that does go against my reverse karma theory) The problem is even though I like Seattle, I just think the Colts are too good. And once again I talk about a Colt's opponent the week before they actually play them....

at St. Louis OVER Philadelphia - One of the things I don't like is knowing who is favored. And this game is a reason why. I say I don't like picking favorites over and over, but that in itself is against that belief. Anyways, I'm going with the favorite and against my instincts on this one.

Dallas OVER at Washington - Remember how I said that you don't want to go into a game against a good team after they've had a bad loss. Well that applies to opponents who are equally matched with you too. It also works in reverse... you want an equally matched team to be coming off a close win, because they might still have a lingering doubt about their last game. Well, needless to say (even though I got last weeks pick wrong) I'm glad Dallas beat Kansas City with a little help from the refs and a missed field goal by KC.

at Baltimore OVER Green Bay - Someone should have told Green Bay that if they wanted a shot at Reggie Bush, they should have missed that field goal against Detroit. Oh well, they'll have to hope someone stupidly trades the next Brett Favre to them like Atlanta did a few years ago.

Violating the Dulles Toll Road

A friend of mine once told me about how he was heading out to Charlestown, WV. He took the Dulles Toll Road part of the way. Being unfamiliar with the Toll Road he drove right through the fast lane. He didn't have a Smart Tag and, of course, all the lights and bells went off. He said he noticed it in his rearview mirror, but didn't want to stop. He figured they would send him something in the mail. Nothing ever came.

Well, shockingly, VDOT has admitted that there is nothing in place to catch people. The bells and whistles are just and only that. The camera looking thing is just for show too. So if no cop is around and the toll people don't get your license plate, you're good.

I understand the costs might not have been worth the benefits in the beginning... but why admit this now?! It's going to be about a year until they have real cameras in fall of 2006. So until then, be daring... go ahead and violate the tolls on the Dulles Toll Raod.

Redskins 7-6, and I'm not changing my tune

This weekend, the Redskins got lucky and kept their faint playoff hopes alive. They would have to win out to have a chance, but I wouldn't hold my breath considering how they played on sunday.

The passing offense was atrocious giving up 3 INT (not all were entirely Brunell's fault), but its not like the defense was all roses. They were fortunate the Cardinals didn't have a running game, because the Cards actually had a chance to win it with just a passing game.

What did impress me about the Redskins is that the defense caused and recovered fumbles. Those were the turnovers the Redskins weren't recovering early in the year. In fact, by comparison, those were the types of turnovers that keep the Giants winning games with a statistically not so good defense but an excellent number of turnover (2nd in the league).

And talking about the Giants, they got lucky in overtime against a bad Eagles team. The Cowboys also got luck against the Chiefs, getting an extra set of downs from hthe refs and then the Cheifs missed a makeable game tying field goal. So I guess the good luck was running rampant in the NFC East (except of course for the Eagles).

NFL Week 14 Picks

Last week I spoke of a picking theory. The "theory" (although that is a lofty name for it) only applies to about 3 or 4 teams per year. It is a pretty basic idea predicated on, early in the season, finding two types teams: those that are really bad and will go 4-12 or worse, and those that will be really good and will go 12-4 or better. What you then do is pick against the really bad teams and with the really good teams all season.

There are usually about 5 or 6 "dogs" (bad teams) each year. (This year there is an unusually high number of dogs, about 10.) The trick is to, by week 3 or 4, figure out the "top dogs." This year there are 2 top dogs, Houston and San Francisco. That's not to say they will be the only teams to go 4-12 (or worse), but they are the only that are SURE to be that bad. (Last year the dogs were San Francisco and Miami)

On the other end, there are "winners." Winners are teams that should win at least 12 games. This year there is only one, Indianapolis. Once again, Indy might not be the only team to win 12 or more, but they are the only ones that were good enough to be assured of it. (Last year, it was Indy and New England).

As I stated in the beginning, this only helps you for about 4 teams a year, but for those games you are assured to be 48-16 or better. You, of course, have to pick the dogs to lose and winners to win in those first few weeks of the season (before you christening them as dogs and winners) to have that record. But that shouldn't be too hard because the dogs shouldn't be expect to win (and vice-versa for winners) in the first place. Granted it's sort of a passive way to pick games and it probably won't get you a prize (on it's own), but it's not terrible idea either.

This week I'm making straight picks and against the spread (ATS) picks. If I pick a favorite, I'll put my ATS pick at the end of the paragraph. If I pick an underdog, I'm obviously picking them against the spread, so I might not make mention of the spread.

Anywho, here they are:

at Carolina OVER Tampa Bay - To me the NFC South and NFC North teams are all paper tigers... especially their highly ranked defenses. The Bucs and Panthers have #2 and #4 ranked defense, but they've been playing against really bad offenses. I'll go with the veteran offense on this one. (ATS: Bucs)

at Cincinnati OVER Cleveland - The Bengals are 12 pt favorites, and I'ld still take them against the spread. (ATS: Cincy)

Kansas City OVER at Dallas - There is just no love for the Chiefs. And the last time I said that they lost to the Bills.

at Denver OVER Baltimore - Jake Plummer threw two INT last week. Are we seeing the old Plummer here? Either way, this 14 pt spread is too big. (ATS: Baltimore)

at Green Bay OVER Detroit - Here's a weird stat: Green Bay is 2-10 with the #8 defense and the #8 passing offense. This is a night game in Green Bay and there is a chance of snow. This game will be decided by what Brett Favre shows up. (ATS: Detroit) (This will be my ATS "bite me in the butt" game)

at Jacksonville OVER Indianapolis - I know I wrote all that go with the "winner" stuff, but I've decided to be bold and go with my instinct from about a month ago. The rest of the Jaguars have so many reasons to step it up, but I think the biggest (yes bigger than the Colts unbeaten season) is to prove that this team isn't dependant on Byron Leftwich.

at Minnesota OVER St. Louis - Remember how I said I would make my Minnesota will win the NFC North prediction this week? Well I'm insane for ever thinking that. I thought it because I didn't think the Bears were all that good... the Vikings might be a better team than the Bears now, but I don't see them winning more games than the Bears lose. (ATS: Minnesota)

New England OVER at Buffalo - The Pats are barely 3 1/2 pt favorites. Buffalo has yet to win on the Road, and now they're gonna be within a TD? I don't think so. (ATS: New England)

NY Giants OVER at Philadelphia - A few weeks ago, I stuningly thought this would be a close game. Remember how I'm insane. Anyways, the 9 pt line in this game is just right. (ATS: Giants)

Oakland OVER at NY Jets - I don't think I've picked the Jets once this year, and I really WANT to pick them at some point even though it would be REDICULOUS. This would be a candidate for it because you never know what the Raiders are gonna do, but the Jets just suck... (ATS: Oakland)

at Pittsburgh OVER Chicago - Remember how last week I pointed out that Chicago hasn't played a top offense since week 5 (not surprisingly their last loss)? Well their soft schedule contines against the #20 offense Steelers. But this time they're not playing an NFC softie like the teams they've been racking up wins against. The 6 1/2 pt line is too big, though. I'm thinking this game will be about 10-13. (ATS: Chicago) (This will be my straight "bite me in the butt" pick because if you remember... I don't respect the Steelers either)

at San Diego OVER Miami - The glamour beat the Colts pick, is next weeks Chargers game. San Diego is good, but they'ld have to do it at Indy. Why did i bring that up? Because there is NO WAY Miami should win this game. Another well placed spread... (ATS: Miami)

at Seattle OVER San Francisco - This is a 16 pt spread... It's too tempting, especially considering their last game was a 27-25 squeaker for Seattle. (ATS: San Fran)

at Tennessee OVER Houston - Houston is one of my "top dogs" but they've had two close losses in the past two weeks. Why that makes me think they'll keep it close on the road is kinda stupid... I still feel it though. (ATS: Houston)

at Arizona OVER Washington - I continue my stubborn streak. The interesting line here is that Arizona is #1 in passing offense, and the Skins are #10 in passing defense. I'm stunned, because the Skins defensive line gets NO penetration, making it impossible for the secondary, who has to keep cover for what seems like an eternity. This'll be interesting. (ATS: Washington)

at Atlanta OVER New Orleans - I wish I could bet on the chances of Monday Night Football playing "It's a Family Affair" by Sly and The Family Stone because of the whole Aaron Brooks and Michael Vick. This a 10 1/2 pt spread here, and the last time Atlanta beat anyone by more than 10 was back on Oct. 2nd. (ATS: New Orleans)

Shockingly, I actually like other teams besides the Redskins

• I'm not a hundred percent sure I'll be saying the same thing in a few months, but right now I like the Nats trading for Alfonso Soriano. Much like SuperNoVa over at Nats Blog, I liked Brad Wilkerson, but I'm not as dissapointed.
  
  Now I don't want to defend the trade by knocking Wilkerson, but even the NatsBlog listed Wilkerson as the 10th most valuable "thing" for the Nats. It might sound high, but it's still behind Nick Johnson's, Jose Guillen's, Ryan Church's and Brian Schneider's bats. That pretty much leaves him more valuable than Vinny Castilla's, Christian Guzman's and Jose Vidro's bat (and Vidro spent alot of the season hurt). I guess I'm willing to make that trade for a former All-Star who has home run power.
  
  
• So it's obvious that I've been quiet about the Wizards. They were playing well enough through the season, and were in a close game when they lost their first game against the Clippers. Then they blowout Seattle and beat the defending champion Spurs. So everything is looking good, and then they lose 5 in a row. Now they can't get any consistency, alternating wins and loses. They only bright spot is that their 8-9 record is good enough for second place in the Southeast Division... strangely it would be good enough for first place in the Atlantic Division but last place in the Central.
  
  
• I obviously know very little about hockey, because, contrary to what I said earlier, the Caps ARE as bad as people were saying they were going to be. They have the least number of points in the Eastern Conference, and have more wins than just three teams: Pittsburgh, Columbus and St. Louis. Strangely tickets are still going for more than $80 in the lower level.
  
  
• I certainly was spoiled back when the Terps made 3 straight bowl games and won 10 or more games in each of those season. They even went to big name bowls (Orange, Peach and Gator) and now, after two consecutive 5-6 (one win away from bowl eligiblity), I'ld settle for the Holiday or Independence Bowl.
  Now, I'm not insane enough to complain about Ralph Friedgen yet... especially considering how things have gotten harder in ACC football with the additions of Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College. I just wanted to express my sadness on the matter.
  
  
• I've also been spoiled with the Terps basketball making 9 or 10 straight NCAA tournaments... and winning it all in 2002. I know, they get a multiyear pass because of the championship, so I can stand the loss to Gonzaga. But yet another loss to George freaking Washington?! Please!
  

Spaceport, New Mexico

It appears that if you are planning on buying a ticket into space with Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic you're probably going to have to get yourself to New Mexico first. Although flights will first leave from the Californian Mojave Desert, they will, once the spaceport is finished, depart just north of Las Cruces, NM. Once I have $200,000 to throw around, I'll be on the flight...

All I want for Christmas...

Are you wondering what to get me? Well, wonder no more! Just go to Excitations.com and pick out the Skipper for a year. $3310 a little to much? Well how about the DC United experience for $1400. Still too much? Well I'ld surely invite you if you got me the Private Yacht Cruise on the Potomac for $1250.

Okay so in all honesty, Excitations is a pretty good idea if you don't know what to get for someone. Most gifts are expensive, some are a little lame ($65 Photo Safari), some are WAYoverpriced ($70 paintball and $60 rock climbing) but some are priced right ($75 segway tour, $250 skydiving). Plus I think they give you a nice wrapped box which explains the gift.

Redskins 6-6 and still done, my pick review and more.

This past week I went 11-5. (Although my pigheaded/reverse karma choice of picking against the Skins cost me a much more repectable 12-4) My season record is now 50-24, not bad but I fell like I should have done better.

In fact here is where I went wrong with my misses:

Green Bay losses to Chicago. I've never been a big Brett Favre fan, but I still believed in his Soldier Field winning streak. The Bears defense is good, but I still stand by my list of simply AWFUL offenses they have played.

Denver losses to Kansas City. I still believe in Denver, and it helps that Mike Shanahan seems to understand Jake Plummer, considering he doesn't exactly trust him when the game is on the line.

Pittsburgh losses to Cincinnati. I coped out last and picked an easy game (Skins vs. Rams) as the "bite me in the butt" pick. I should have gone with this one. Remember how I reiterated my feelings from the beginning of the season: that the Steelers aren't that good? Well Cincinnati still might not be experience enough for the rest of the league, but they are good enough against a Steelers team who just might not make it into the playoffs.

New Orleans losses to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay barely beats a team that I am now (way too late) making the Saints a "dog." Tampa should show their true colors in the next few weeks though... but they'll probably still get one of the wild cards.

St. Louis losses to Washington. Going into the 4th quarter this past Sunday, the Redskins led a sorry St. Louis Rams, 10-7. Surprisingly, they decided to keep the lead this time and actually add to it, making the final score 24-9.


Finally here is why this win is good, but not exactly all that good:

Towards the end of every season, your team will fit into one of 3 categories: playoff teams, playoff miss teams and bad teams. (each category has it's own subcategories, but for this explanation, these will do.) Right now the Redskins are looking like a playoff miss team. Normally this wouldn't be very good because that would mean a pick in the 20s. But since the Redskins traded away their 2006 first round pick, it doesn't matter. So this year, I can truly root for them to win, so the pick (now owned by the Denver Broncos) will be later in the first round.

If they still owned the pick I would have rooted for their losing streak to continue in hopes of getting an earlier first round pick. This "rooting against" your team so they get a higher draft pick is one of the weirder parts of being a sports fan. (I made a mention of it in an earlier post and Bill Simmons write about it in his picks for week 13.) They even name the race for last place after the likely #1 pick, using terms like this year's Reggie Bush Sweepstakes and 1996's Peyton Manning Bowl featuring the NY Giants vs. NY Jets (although Manning stayed another year at Tennessee and ended up going to the Colts in 98).

Some might argue that you should never root against your team, and there is a point to that belief. Great teams can be built with a little luck and good front office decisions, the Patriots being the poster child for this. But consistantly picking in the mid teens to upper 20s doesn't leave much to look forward to.

Just ask the Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, and Pittsburgh Steelers. Each one of these teams have spent the past 10 years, barely missing the playoffs or making them only to be beaten by a better team. Some have had bad years, but not consistently. (The Eagles and Steelers have gone the farthest but have had the same results as the rest.)

I think there is something to be said about how the winners of the last 6 Super Bowls (Patriots, Buccaneers, Ravens/Browns, and Rams) have all come from being consistently bad teams to Super Bowl champions. You have to go back to 1999's Denver Broncos to see a team that won after years of being good.

So finally, having said all that, even though the Skins don't have a first round pick next year, I see them continuing this "okay/good" team rut. And that is just not good, because they'll need something drastic to get over that hump.

thoughts for the day...

• You're probably familiar with my interest in cryptozoology as well as exctinct and endangered species. So this story piqued my interest: A previously unknown mammal was photographed in Borneo recently.
  
  
• Remember the "you're getting a dell!" guy? Remember how everyone wanted to kill him? Well, I officially want to stab the guy who does the tv commerical for a game called "Riff." The guy dresses up and acts like different music genres (even dressing like Robert Palmer's famous actress video). Apparently it's some sort of music trivia dvd game... and there is not a chance I am buying it.
  
  
• There are two houses in my neighborhood I don't like. One puts moth balls in their yard and the other has these "no dogs, no children" pesticide signs which are WAY too old to be valid. The moth balls do nothing to deter my dog from sniffing up the area, and the signs would only keep a responsible pet owner (and their pet) away. But a responsible pet owner already picks up after their dog, so it's pretty useless. I wish my dog would pee or drop a deuce on their lawns, but he's already gone by that time...
  
  

New England Aquarium Penguin Story Redux

Remember the penguin story that was from a friend of a friend? Back when I wrote of it, I mentioned how it reeked of an urban legend. I even looked around and found no mention of it, even on Snopes.com. So I repeated it.

Well, eventually the aquarium got wind of the story and decided to comment. So here it is fully debunked at the Boston Globe.

NFL Week 13 Picks

Remember how I commented awhile back how Taylor Jacobs looked slow? Well obviously I don't follow the Redskins that much because I didn't remember that he had gotten hurt earlier this year. The Post has an article about how he has potential but he keeps getting hurt. In it he says that he's not entirely healed... so I'll blame that for his performance in the Oakland game. Anyways, I'm still going through with my threat of picking against the Redskins for the rest of the year.

This week the "against the Skins" pick definitely looks bad. (In fact, I'm making it my "bite me in the butt" pick. I sort of have two of these this week.) The Skins are going against a rookie QB (from Harvard) who brought the Rams back from certain defeat against the Texans last week. The Redskins have just one loss to a team with less than 7 wins this season (Oakland). The Rams have two and they're doozies... 49ers and Cardinals.

The only thing the Rams have going for them is that they are playing in St. Louis. (But, their last home game was a loss to the Cardinals.) No matter though, I am sure the Redskins will find a way to keep this game close and maybe even win it. Then all the coaches will talk about how "this is a first step", and "they keep fighting", and "they need not look past Arizona." Ugh... I can't wait.

Anyways... on to this week's picks!

Arizona OVER at San Francisco - So I have a picking theory, that I'll expound on in another post, where you pick "dogs" for the season. My season top dogs are San Francisco and Houston.

at Baltimore OVER Houston - Since you could just reread the previous pick, I'll use this space to mention that Baltimore and Arizona are secondary dogs. These games are gonna be FUN!

at Carolina OVER Atlanta - I always say that "I hate to keep going with favorites.." but there is usually a good reason why teams are favored. In this case I agree. Carolina has laid two eggs the past two weeks and won one. I only see one reason why Atlanta should beat Carolina... Michael Vick. BTW I think any game in which I pick against Michael Vick should automatically be a "bite me in the butt" pick.

Green Bay OVER at Chicago - 21st, 25th, 26th, 27th, 17th, 32nd, 23rd, and 22nd. That is the offensive ranking of Chicago's last 8 opponents. Look at their weak schedule, so trust me they're doomed for a repeat of their 2001-02 season. Plus Brett Favre is about 113-0 at Soldier Field.

Denver OVER at Kansas City - I'm beginning to believe in Denver, even though Jake Plummer is the QB and they got lucky against the Redskins or better put, the Redskins sent back the gift wrapped victory the Broncos handed them at Mile High.

at Indianapolis OVER Tennessee - I would only pick against Indy if it were away and on grass. They only have 2 more away games, Seattle and Jacksonville, and Seattle has FieldTurf. We'll see next week if I've got the mettle to pick the Jaguars next week.

Jacksonville OVER at Cleveland - This game has trap written all over it. Cleveland has it in them to beat the Jaguars, it just depends on if the Jaguars have it in them to stay in this game, and not next weeks game.

at Miami OVER Buffalo - I'm going with Miami with Nick Saban (who I'm not down on yet) at home over Buffalo who has yet to win on the road.

Minnesota OVER at Detroit - Remember how a few weeks ago I said if Minnesota beat Green Bay at Lambeau, I would pick them to win the NFC North? Well I checked Chicago's schedule and I'm catiously optimistic. After this weekend, I'm making the call.

at New England OVER NY Jets - Betting wise, I'ld take the 10 pt underdog Jets to beat the spread.

at NY Giants OVER Dallas - Eli plays well at home and Dallas doesn't seem to run the ball well enough to win on the road... In fact, aside from the Philly debacle, they haven't won on the road since September... at San Francisco!

at Pittsburgh OVER Cincinnati - Remember how at the beginning of this season, I said I didn't like Pittsburgh's offense? Well, they are currently ranked #24 (#26 passing) and I don't think it's because Ben Roethlisberger has been hurt. Anyways, I'm only picking the Steelers because they're at home and because the Bengals are too young.

at San Diego OVER Oakland - The two teams that recently beat the Redskins so I can say this with confidence: Oakland stinks and San Diego doesn't. But trust me, that doesn't say much about San Diego. (And it says even less about the Skins.)

at New Orleans OVER Tampa Bay - Remember how Tampa Bay sucks? Well, the Saints have been doing remarkably well all things considered... They've only been blown out once (at Lambeau Field 52-3). The Bucs will probably make it a close game though.

at St. Louis OVER Washington - Every so often, I think to myself: Why torture myself watching the Skins... So this is my revenge of sorts.


Seattle at OVER Philadelphia - Kinda looks like Philly over Seattle is the glamour upset pick for NFL picks around the country. And just because the Seahawks couldn't put the Giants away. But, I am not picking a team who's only victory on the road came because Kansas City shut it down after going up big in the first quarter. BTW, check out who "fueled" the Eagles comeback against the Chiefs with 11 catches for 171 yards and a TD. None other than Señor TO.

Redskins 5-6, still done and the rest of the NFL

The Redskins continue their slide and have in essence (if not mathematically, yet) killed their chances of making the playoffs. I take solace from the fact that the Skins don't have a #1 pick in next years draft (because of this year's Jason Campbell pick/trade) so the better the Redskins do, the worse the #1 pick they would have had is. I also take solace in going 12-4 (and 12-2 on the weekend)... man, I'm regretting those "go against my instinct" picks on Thanksgiving. I am now 39-19 on my picks.

I've got to gloat because I only missed two games this weekend: Philly beating Green Bay and Miami beating Oakland. I thought Green Bay was pretty consistant this year in winning against okay teams away and losing at home. (BTW, I've been an idiot for awhile, because the Packers won at Lambeau on week 5. It's their only win at home though.) The Miami/Oakland game is my upset of the week... granted Oakland stunk it up against the Skins, but not bad enough to see this one coming.

The games I got lucky in were the overtime games: San Diego over Washington and Seattle over NY Giants. Obviously those overtime games could have gone either way. But, Eli Manning impressed me this weekend, even though Seattle is in the bottom third in passing defense. I still think his offensive line, Tiki Barber and his defense have ALOT to do in making him look good, but this weekend he undoubtedly played very well.

I was pretty proud to have called the St. Louis/Houston game as my "bite me in the butt" pick, because it almost did. Houston was up by 21 points when some rookie QB named Ryan Fitzpatrick decided to throw for 3 TD in a comeback OT win. I bet St. Louis is all in a tizzy about this kid... but I of course would like to wait to make a judgment.

Finally, remember how I said the Jags will beat the Colts... well Byron Leftwich broke a bone in his ankle and will not play against the Colts in two weeks. So, we'll have to wait and see how the Jags will play without him to see if I can still call that loss to the Colts.

NFL Week 12 Picks

Last week, on some last minute picks, I went a terrible 9-7 (bringing me to 27-15). But, I am proud of a few of the points I made: the Bengals being inexperienced (Carson Palmer's interception late), the Saints covering the spread against the Pats, and the Pittsburgh over Baltimore pick biting my butt (hey, I was right: Baltimore didn't do well... they just did better than Pittsburgh). And I'm still standing by some other thoughts that still need more time to pan out: Atlanta being better than they've been playing (although this weeks game helps), the Bears doing well because of their schedule (and I'm picking them this week), and not trusting Jake Plummer. Finally, in all fairness, here are the points that now sound bad: picking the Eagles against the 7 pt. spread (they lost by 10), and calling St. Louis a not so good team (they suck!).

So then earlier this week (probably still stinging from my 9-7 score) I went against my better judgement and posted a 0-2 record on Thanksgiving. I practically explained why you should go with Atlanta and Denver and then picked Detroit and Dallas... pretty stupid, I know. Anyways, no more being clever... I'm just making picks from now on.

My grandfather used to pick horses. He studied as much as he could and would pick his 1-3 or 1-4. Something that stood out to me was that he often would draw a figure over a horses stats (it looked like a nose and pair of glasses) which he called "ojos." Literally "eyes", but to him it meant that this was a horse you should keep an eye on. So much so that sometimes these rather ordinary horses, would make it into his pick. And usually, but not always, they would place or show. So in light of the "biting me in the butt" comment, I am starting my "bite me in the butt" pick. It will be a sort of "ojos" pick. A pick that I am worried about enough to make it stick out. We'll see how well I do.

The Picks:

Carolina OVER at Buffalo - Carolina went out and laid an egg (in the form of a single field goal) against the Bears. They'll do better against the Bills

at Cincinnati OVER Baltimore - Folks up in B-more should be excited about the win last week... because they aren't beating the Bengals

Jacksonville OVER at Arizona - Have I told you that I like the Jaguars?

at Kansas City OVER New England - New England finally won two games in a row, I don't see them going 3 weeks, even though its against this schizo Chiefs team. Maybe i feel this because it's in Arrowhead...

at Minnesota OVER Cleveland - I hate to keep going with the favorites, but even though Minnesota is now among the schizos, Cleveland only wins at home.

New Orleans OVER at NY Jets - New Orleans keeps losing and is no longer a schizo team, and is just a bad team, it's just that the Jets are worse.

at Oakland OVER Miami - Another really bad team against a not as bad team.

Green Bay OVER at Philadelphia - Philly is a 4 1/2 pt favorite... huh?

San Diego OVER at Washington - Even with Marty, I still like San Diego. So it sucks that Marty the Schott will come back and beat his old team. Wait a sec, a former Redskins head coach comes back and beats his old team? hmmm sounds familiar.

at Seattle OVER NY Giants - This is the first in a line of games in which Eli Manning better do well to prove me wrong. I'll say this much, if NY wins it'll be because of their defense.

St. Louis OVER at Houston - Houston was a 13 pt underdog against Indy a few weeks ago, and they couldn't even beat that. (This is "my bite me in the butt" pick of the week)

Chicago OVER at Tampa Bay - I'll call this the battle of the worst 7 win teams. I don't like the Bears because they have NO offense. Plus, the Bears defense is being excessively praised even though they haven't played a single good offense since their loss to the Bengals back in September. No matter though because Tampa Bay is just... not good.

at Tennessee OVER San Francisco - There are two teams who need no thinking about Houston and San Fran... Even though Tennessee sucks they aren't in that list quite yet. We'll see after this week.

at Indianapolis OVER Pittsburgh - Indy is an 8 1/2 pt favorite... wow! But considering what I think about Pittsburgh, if I were picking against the spread I might still take Indy.

The New England Aquarium Imaginary Penguin Story

So I don't really like spreading rumors but this one is funny and I'm not too far removed from it. I'll just say it is a friend of a friend's cousin, that this happened too. It is from memory so it's going to sound a lot like I made it up, but I did not make this story up. Someone else along the line might have made it up, but I promise I have not. (Doesn't every urban legend start like that?)

A couple and their young boy visit the New England Aquarium in Boston for the first time a few weeks ago. They go, they have fun and eventually they head home. Once they get home the kid tells their parent that he wants to take a bath and go play with his new pet penguin. The parents were amused that the trip had gotten the boy's imagination going, but more importantly they were happy to have him take the initiative to bathe. So they let the boy run to the bathroom, and start to make dinner. Pretty soon they start hearing a lot of splashing and noise coming from the bathroom, so they go check up on him. When they get there they find the boy with a real live penguin in the bathtub. Apparently the kid had somehow gotten the penguin and snuck him out in his backpack. The kid and the bird get checked out (they might have even been quarantined), and that's the last I have heard of it.

I've looked it up in the Boston Globe and Boston Herald, but I found anything about a kid taking a penguin from the aquarium... so that makes me skeptical. But then again I wonder if this is the sort of story the aquarium wants to keep quiet considering how apparently easy it is to steal a penguin.

Thursday NFL Picks

Last week when I made my last minute (sunday morning) picks I went about 4-38. And this week since there are turkey day games, I'm once again making last minute picks... so I'm only picking two games today, and I'll pick the rest tomorrow or saturday.

So this week my first thoughts were: to pick against Detroit (because they seem to like to lose on Thanksgiving) and with Denver (since they seem to be pretty good this season, at least thats what others think). BUT here are my picks:

at Detroit OVER Atlanta - So I believe I have picked Atlanta two weeks in a row and they've failed me both times. I'm picking against them once again... just watch this is the week they'll turn it around and beat Detroit on a day Detroit hasn't been very good the past few years. Michael Vick will throw for 325 yards, run for a TD and throw two. Anyways, I don't like picking this game because, aside from highlights, I haven't seen either team play since about week 1 or 2.

at Dallas OVER Denver - Denver is everyones favorite team behind the Colts, but Dallas seems to win on Thanksgiving. So I'm going with Dallas because I think they are a good team with a good coach. I don't think Mike Shanahan is all that good of a coach (John Elway and Terrell Davis got him that Super Bowl) and I'm waiting for Jake Plummer to throw 3 interceptions... it HAS to happen.

Redskins are 5-5 and are Done!

The Redskins are officially horrible, and it's because teams have figured them out. This week, there is no blaming the referees because the Lamont Jordan call was the right call. He was ruled down by contact, and there was no evidence to contrary. The only thing I saw was the ground causing the "fumble" as Jordan went to stretch it out. Anyways, the Skins got a few "home" calls, like the weak pass interference call on the Randy Moss TD. And of course the turnovers are problem.

But the bigger problem is the team as a whole. As Bill Simmons points out all you need to do to stop the Redskins offense is stack the line against the run and double team Santana Moss. Once Santana was double teamed that left Taylor Jacobs (who looks stunningly slow) and James Thrash (who couldn't even make it in pre-T.O. Philly) in single coverage, and neither could do anything on Sunday. Opposing offenses then just need to go for long passes, because the Redskins WILL give up at least one 25+ yard TD or pass into the Red Zone. They'll also give up a long run for a first down (and sometimes TD) right when it counts.

When you get down to it though, the Redskins deserve this. Like the Nationals this past season, they got used to winning close games at the beginning of the season, and now it's biting them in the butt. They won games early that they could have lost and now have lost games they could have won. They deserve 5-5.

But I guess what irks me is the fact that Norval Eugene Turner was able to do this against Joe Gibbs' Redskins. Maybe Gibbs was too busy following his NASCAR team win the Nextel Cup. Maybe they should rename the club level at FedEx the Norv Turner Club Level for a day... ugh. It sickens me to think about him. The only thing that give me solace is the fact that he really hasn't changed much. He still plays games closely and can oddly win on the road (I'm pretty sure he had a good road record with the Skins). I sorta feel sorry for the Raiders... Anyways, we'll move on.

I've decided that no matter what, I'm going against the Redskins for the rest of the season with my picks. I'ld rather they win than me win, so if they're going to lose, I might as well win. We'll call it the "sore loser" rule.

As for my picks... wow! I got SKUNKED! I'll write about that later though... for now I'm going to gnash my teeth in my sleep over my beloved Skins!

NFL Week 11 Picks

So I have a pedestrian 18-8 (although it should be 20-8) record for the past two weeks. Not outstanding but at least I'm not at 500 (like Chris Berman). I copied all the games this time (instead of doing them one by one) so that I'm sure to pick all 14 games. I'm making these picks early on Sunday morning so two things... they are really quick picks (i'm doing em fast) and that gives me an "out" if I go 6-8. My quick thought is that alot of these games are really toss ups, not exactly close games, but toss ups at first sight. Which makes me think that if I spent some time thinking about it, I should do better... but that doesn't mean I would... so anyways.... here goes:

at Atlanta OVER Tampa Bay - Atlanta is better than last week, and Tampa Bay is worse than last week.

Carolina OVER at Chicago - Chicago's record is due to their schedule, I don't think they are as good as people seem to think.

Miami OVER at Cleveland - I still don't like Miami, but I like them better than Cleveland.

at Dallas OVER Detroit - Dallas got lucky last week so this reeks of a trap game, but I can't bring myself to pick Detroit on the road.

at Denver OVER NY Jets - I like Denver but I just don't trust Jake Plummer... but I trust him against whoever is QBing for the Jets.

Indianapolis OVER at Cincinnati - Indy has to lose at some point this year and this is certainly a candidate for that. But the Bengals are just to inexperience to pick... even at home.

Jacksonville OVER at Tennessee - The Jaguars are the team I think will beat Indy... and I'm saying that because there really is nothing to say about this game.

Kansas City OVER at Houston - Trent Green threw interceptions as if the Chiefs got points for them last week, ruining my KC over Buffalo pick. He could do the same thing this week and still beat the Texans.

at New England OVER New Orleans - I'm picking the Patriots because the Saints are so unstable but I REALLY want to pick New Orleans and I would if I were picking against the 9 1/2 point spread.

at NY Giants OVER Philadelphia - Another game where I REALLY want to pick the underdog (Philly). Again I would pick them against the 7 point spread.

Pittsburgh OVER at Baltimore - Baltimore should have taken advantage of the game that was close in Pittsburgh. I don't see them doing as well... even at home. (This pick is the one I'm thinking is biting me in the rear, btw)

at San Diego OVER Buffalo - A good team against a bad one... what else can I say.

Seattle OVER at San Francisco - Ibid. (can I use that for picks? in other words same things goes here as for the last pick.)

at St. Louis OVER Arizona - A not so good team at home against a bad team... I'll go with the the not so good team.

at Washington OVER Oakland - Norval Eugene Turner has no business winning at FedEx Field since he couldn't even do it consistenly as the Redskins head coach. BUT let me say this, If this were in Oakland I would pick Oakland.

at Green Bay OVER Minnesota - Here are two teams that seem to currently be better than their records. So I'm going with the home team. So I'll try this again: I see the Packers finally win their first game in Lambeau this season. (BUT, if Minnesota wins, I'm picking them to win the NFC North... Yeah I might regret that. I'm going to check Chicago's remaining schedule to see if that makes sense.)

Intelligent Design

It would be refreshing to see a religious group say that "Intelligent Design" does not belong in the science room. It, therefore, is probably most refreshing to see a Roman Catholic Church official say that Intelligent Design is not science.

The rather sad thing is that the religious right (which, and I probably don't need to point this out, has way too much control over the Republican party) doesn't exactly respect the Catholic Church. (Which is understandable since these are the same Christian fundamentalists who feel the Catholic church has repressed them since forever.) But somehow I get the feeling these people (Pat Robertson, et al.) will dismiss this as the Vatican not being in touch with the "Lord's will."

The part they apparantly fail to remember (and or see) is that the Vatican has already gone through this. The Vatican has a history of fighting science and they realize there is no reason to. Science will never prove or disprove God. The only thing that will be disproved is your own integrity for claiming things of and about God that you have no business claiming.

I have an issue with the article though. It states that "Last week, Pope Benedict XVI waded indirectly into the evolution debate by saying the universe was made by an "intelligent project" and criticizing those who in the name of science say its creation was without direction or order." In the context of this article, it makes it seem as if the Pontiff supports "Intelligent Design" as presented by its supporters. Personally I would like to ready his comments to make my own conclusion as to what he meant.

The religious right in this country will continue to try and place "Intelligent Design" in science class, and I truly respect Vatican officials for at least saying things against it. The Vatican has fought this war, so now it's time for another large religious group (which coincidentally has a good amount of control over government) to fight this war of explaining creation with a literal interpretation of the Bible. How about we start at Joshua 10:12, where it implies that the Sun moves around the Earth. "Intelligent Design" supporters could even ask the Vatican for its notes about this same subject back when it fought Galileo about this around 400 years ago.

Redskins at 5-4, should be 6-3 but so what.

I was ready to write a long post about how the Redskins got screwed by the refs and how Mike Alstott's elbow (the one with the football) had CLEARLY not broken the plane, but I've decided to leave a mention to that bad call to just this paragraph. (I think, the media should make a bigger deal of it... I'm looking at you Mike Wilbon. Wilbon seems to just compare the Alstott call to the Betts call. Well hindsight is hindsight, but I'm pretty sure if the Betts TD is called back the Skins offense gets on the field and has a chance to score a TD. If Alstott doesn't make it, there is no second chance for the Bucs. Basically though, the Bucs got lucky and the Redskins otherwise gave them the game. You can't seriously tell me the Bucs are looking better than the Skins for the rest of the season can you? Unless the Bucs plan on being handed games for the rest of the season. So much more could be said but when it comes down to it the Redskins need to click in the next two games.

And since I hate meaningless cliches, I'll explain what I mean by click. Two things need to happen: first and foremost the defense needs to improve and second the turnover ratio need to get better. The Skins have been sunk by turnovers all season. 3 of their losses, including Sunday's, can be, at least partially, attributed to offensive (or special team) turnovers and a lack of recovered turnovers. The biggest problem, I believe, is their defensive system, which I'm assuming isn't up for tweaking. I see two problems with Gregg Williams' system: First, the system doesn't use it's players strengths... making it easy to replace a player, but also reducing great players to regular players. And second, when one player fails it is susceptible to big plays... to use a computing term: there is no redundancy.

And since Williams' system is so praised, I don't think things will changes. I just hope that, like the LaVar Arrington issue, I am wrong. (Remember, I had thought that since Williams' system could works just as well with LaVar as it would with any other linebacker, Williams wouldn't use LaVar since LaVar hadn't "learned to be a pro" yet. Whatever that meant.)

In the end though, this season will come down to the next two games. It's over with the learning period of the season. Like the 2000 Ravens, 2000 Giants, 2001 Patriots, and 2002 Raiders (all teams that had their last meaningful loss around week 9 or 10, and then made the Super Bowl) this is when the Skins need to start a winning streak that leads into the playoffs. Now is the time to win out.

Finally, I would like to comment on something that happened a couple of years ago: In order to save money, Redskins Radio, replaced Frank Herzog with Larry Michaels. Back then, I was pretty disappointed because I hated hearing the Fox announcers who without fail would include one of two former Cowboys as announcers for Redskins games: Troy Aikman or Daryl Johnston. Aikman was bearable, but Johnston was, and still is, shamefully biased against the Skins. Anyways, thats a story for another day: the point here is that I would mute the TV and listen to Sonny, Sam and Frank. But when Frank left, I was sorely disappointed by Larry Michaels' play calling. He didn't have an interesting TD call (btw, is/was there a better hometown TD call than Frank's "Touchdown, Washington Redskins!" and whoever does the Chiefs' call of "Touchdown, KAN-SAS CITY!") So I stopped listening, and tried to ignore Johnston's lame commentary.

It didn't bother me that much mainly, I could still watch the game and just shut out the commentary. But this week I couldn't watch the game and was forced to listen to most of the game on WJFK (I only watched the 4th Quarter). I was seconds away from gouging my ears out because Larry Michaels has gotten worse! He takes FOREVER to describe things. I can tell what has happened from the crowd noise before he finishes his call. It seems like he wastes time on being exact (Larry, I really don't care if you call a run "about 4 yards" and its really is only a 3 yard because I get the idea that the fella didn't just run 15 yards) Im not looking for accuracy as much as speed. I'll get over being off by one or two yards on a first or second down run. I seriously heard something along the lines of this: "Brunell rolling to his left... (1 sec pause) has a man open... (1 sec pause, Tampa Bay crowd quiets down, 2 sec pause) Robert Royal makes the 8 reception and is tackled" Um, gee, Larry thanks for the update! I'ld be faster if he wrote it down, blogged it and had someone else read it over the radio. I even heard Sonny announcing that the Skins got a first down because... well I guess Larry thinks it's more important to tell me exactly how many yards, or who tackled him than if the Skins have a first down.

Anyways, needless to say, its been a frustrating day in football.

Nobody (except the Clippers) beat the Wiz

So, I'll admit, I was notably silent when the Wizards lost at home to the LA Clippers. In their previous games they had taken leads in the second half, or protected a lead like a good team does. So it was disappointing to see them take a 3 point lead into the 4th quarter only to lose by 5. So I decided to hold off commenting when they WALLOPED Seattle on Friday night, 137-96. But now it's kind of hard to hold back when they just beat the defending NBA champion Spurs, 110-95. This is a Spurs team that should cruise into the NBA Finals after having a 70+ win seasons. Gilbert Arenas went and put 43 points on em!

So I'm stating the obvious, but as Gilbert Arenas goes, so go the Wizards. In every game he is the leading scorer the Wizards have won. The same thing holds true for Tim Duncan and the Spurs... needless to say Duncan scored a paltry 11 pts, putting him behind even backup point guard Nick Van Exel (who, BTW, I had no clue was playing for the Spurs). What surprises me about Arenas is that I pegged him for a Reggie Miller type. An all around good player, who was missing something. A fan favorite, an all star, but not an MJ, Shaq, Duncan, or Kobe. Not one of those players that wins you an NBA championship in this era. But now I am seeing that potential in him and I'm digging it because he has quality players around him. I just hope that potential becomes reality.

Week 10 NFL Picks

Once again this week, I pretty much agree with ESPN's Week 10 NFL Ranking. But, what is scary though is that I agree more with Peter King's ranking than I do with Dr. Z's ranking. I'm going to take my temperature now.

Anyways, since last week I went 11-3 on my NFL picks, I've decided to do it again. And since not over analyzing things by just doing quick picks, I'll do that again. Well, to be specific I will only use two things. My astounding knowledge and instincts (ie. My brain) and this Week 10 schedule from Yahoo. The schedule shows home, away, favorites and spread. (BTW, I probably shouldn't be looking at the favorites considering last week it in part got me to pick the Packers to beat the Steelers.)

Anyways... off to my picks:

Atlanta over Green Bay. A few years ago I remember the Falcons going into Green Bay and breaking their long playoff home game winning streak. I guess the point is the Packers really haven't improved since, Michael Vick seems healthy and they're playing in Atlanta. (What scares me: Green Bay seems to win away this season and if Vick doesn't play, I'd go with the Pack.)

Kansas City over Buffalo. I just don't like Buffalo's QB whoever it is. nuff said. (What scares me: Just that Buffalo is favored... why is there no love for the Chiefs?)

Carolina over NY Jets. Once again I don't like the Jets QB, whoever they decide to play. (What scares me: nothing really.)

Denver over Oakland. I'm going with the Broncos mainly because of my old rule, don't ever trust Norv. (What scares me: Oakland at home... I'm pretty sure Denver doesn't do well there.)

Detroit over Arizona. Pretty evenly matched game so I'm going with the home team. (What scares me: It's evenly matched. Maybe If i were going against the spread, 4 points, I'ld go with the Cardinals.)

Indianapolis over Houston. But I might go with Houston if I were picking against the 17.5 points (WOW!) spread. (What scares me: A let down from last weeks win against the Patriots... just kidding!)

Jacksonville over Baltimore. Like I said last week, I like the Jaguars... but I also like the Ravens, just not on the road with Anthony Wright at QB. (What scares me: Nothing really, especially since this is in Jacksonville.)

New England over Miami. New England will continue their "lose one, win one" trend. (What scares me: I think the Patriots are going to tank at some point this season, just not this week... right?)

NY Giants over Minnesota. If this game were played at Minnesota, I might have gone with the Vikings. (What scares me: The Vikings on the road... so in other words I'ld even pick the Giants against the 10 point spread.)

Pittsburgh over Cleveland. Does this really need to be explained. The Steelers don't lose to bad teams, the Browns lose to everyone, etc. (What scares me: The Browns... I'm glad I'm not from Cleveland.)

Washington over Tampa Bay. I stopped trusting the Bucs back when they lost their QB and their Cadillac broke down. (What scares me: The fact that I keep using the Cadillac gimmick when talking about the Bucs.)

Dallas over Philadelphia. Lemme see: the Eagles are at home, but they still don't have a running game, just gave up on their only real passing threat, and Donovan McNabb would have been shot months ago if he were a horse. So why are the Eagles favored? (What scares me: Two things. The Eagles got spanked last time they played the Cowboys and the Cowboys secondary loves giving up passing yards. Remember that the Eagles can't run? Well that sorta works out well for the Eagles doesn't it?)

Finally, if I haven't mentioned it before I'll state it now. I hate Chris Berman. His nicknames were cool... back when I was 10. Actually, that's a lie, I didn't like them back then either. His alter ego NFL picking "Swami" gets old especially since he only picks like 6 games. What is even crazier is that even though he hand picks 6 games, he sucks. Like this week he goes and misses them ALL! Another thing I don't like is that he doesn't hide who he roots for very well. I'm pretty sure he's a Giants fan. He's got that Peter King-ness to him. More on this later...

20 Questions

So I recently decided to get the portable version of 20Q, the 20 Questions game. It's 10 bucks, and definitely worth it. It surprised me with how good it is at figuring out what I think of. It does miss but it's pretty cool when it hits. Hits come on simple things (an orange) and slightly harder things (stop sign). It initially missed "mango" guessing "pear", but 4 or 5 questions later it got it right. I've tried Santa Claus twice, but it has guessed "Mickey Mouse" and "Planet".

You can play it online at 20q.net. The cool thing is that you can try it in other languages too!

Virginia and New Jersey Governor Races

I wanted to comment earlier on the deluge of negative ads put out by Virginia gubernatorial candidate, Jerry Kilgore. But I wanted to wait. I want to see if being so amazingly negative would work. I am happy to say that apparently it doesn't. Tim Kaine will be Virginia's next Governor.

Now to be honest, I only the cursory points of Tim Kaine's and Jerry Kilgore's political beliefs but I am glad that Jerry Kilgore lost. I thought Kilgore's ads were horrendous. In one ad Kilgore stated (not just suggested) that Kaine would not apply Virginia's death penalty on Adolf Hitler. (Side note: strangely there was someone jumping on a trampoline while these malicious "facts" where displayed about Kaine) Do I even need to explain how crude and misleading that is? Sheesh, Kilgore almost had me believing that Willie Horton himself would be my next door neighbor if Kaine were elected... and I live in DC!

I, also, was very dissapointed in what I heard of Kilgore's concession speech. I like hearing concession speeches, because the losing politician tended to seem humble and uses the platform to encourage passion in working for the city/state/country and to encourage unity. But Kilgore seemed defiant after congratulating Kaine. He spoke of losing the battle, but not losing the war. To me, calling the larger scene a war, seems not only tactless, but stubborn and improvident. If he was speaking of not losing the war of "Republican values," did he not know that the same voters who said no to him said yes to Republican Bill Bolling as Lt. Governor? Unless Kaine and Bolling HATE each other, I see no reason for a "war." In fact, I see more of a reason to encourage Democrats and Republicans to work together. I know it sounds naive, but starting a new government by calling it a war just seems wrong.

Anyways, I hope Tim Kaine's victory means two things: First and foremost, that Virginia voters thought Kaine was the better candidate and secondly that Virginia voters were saying attack ads are NOT the way to win. (Please take not of that second point, fella who was interviewed at Kilgore headquarters saying that you don't understand politics if you don't understand the negative ads. Sir, I would say that you are the one who doesn't understand that most voters don't appreciate it when practically ALL your tv and radio ads are negative.)

Finally, I know nothing about the New Jersey race... so I only can say this: I hope New Jersey voters didn't vote Democratic because of dissatisfaction with President Bush and the corruption in the Republican Party. Virginia voters, on the other hand, were practically invited to show such dissastisfaction, because of Bush's campaign appearance for Kilgore. (BTW, am I the only one who thought that move was pretty daft? Really all Bush would do is lose you those votes who are among the 60%+ that think Bush is doing a bad job.) I just hope New Jersey voters didn't forsake a candidate simply because of his or her political affiliation.

My new favorite show: Next

So I really understand the idea of Love/Hate because I love and hate the mtv show Next. First, click the link if you don't know how the show works. Second, I'll explain why I hate it: because it's childish, the people are shallow, and its just a car crash of a show. Finally, why I love it:

So, last week I thought the show hit an all time high when a quasi-cross dressing fella named Matthew was a dater on the show. Our friend Matthew wasn't only strangely dressed but he actually called himself "Matthew Fashion." To the contestant's credit, he actually didn't "next" Mr. Fashion at first sight. Since the contestant was a "division one" college basketball player the date involved playing basketball. Needless to say little Matty wasn't very good, and running around in an interesting dress-like outfit probably didn't help. He got nexted. (Side note: if the contestant was really a division one basketball player, he must be having a hard time if he still plays, considering he just admitted to being gay on MTV.)

Anyways you're probably asking yourself, is that it? Is this worthy of a posting. And I say to you "Nay Nay!" What I watched about 10 minutes ago is. This was THE MOMENT in Next history. I don't see how they top this, although I wasn't sure how they would top "Matthew Fashion", but this one certainly did the trick.

So this guy who openly admits he is picky, "nexts" the first 2 girls the second they get off the RV. The third girl, last a bit until he finds out that she has piercings "down there." Okay I can sort of see that, so we move on to the fourth girl. She seems nice, eats shellfish even though she doesn't like it, and even obliges the guy when he starts asking about the final girl. The girl gets a little too truthful and the guy nexts her to meet the finally dater. So on comes our WINNER, the fifth and final dater. As she is getting of the RV she tells us and the other daters that she needs to go to the bathroom. She arrives at the date, and it seems like she was able to make it to the bathroom and starts talking to the guy. The guy asks what kind of guy she likes and out of nowhere, and I'm not kidding, she pees herself. They show the floor beneath her and there is a puddle of... well you know. Then they go to pants and you see a big wet spot where there should be one. She sits there sheepishly, as the guy notices and yells "Next!" As she gets up, they show you her chair, freshly soiled. I sat there STUNNED.

Needless to say, you need to catch this episode and the Matthew Fashion one too... just amazingly frightening television from the folks over at MTV.

Redskins 4-3, I am 10-3

So I went 10-3 on my picks and I can explain the three I got wrong. First, I stupidly picked Green Bay over Pittsburgh. I called it my upset special even though I described my "reasoning" as RETARDED. Second, I picked Tennessee over Cleveland. As I stated, I didn't really think about this one because both teams are horrible, so thats some what of an excuse. Third, I picked Tampa Bay over Carolina, and for that I blame myself. I thought these teams were evenly matched but it seems they are teams headed in different directions. I didn't see them play but I no longer think Tampa Bay is for real.

Now on to the Skins victory over the Eagles. My first thoughts are that, although a win is a win, I am disappointed. The Redskins came out flat in the first quarter and in general this win should have been much easier. The Eagles are not the Seahawks, Broncos, and Chiefs but the Skins played them all the same. Hopefully, these are just "cobwebs" from last week and from a 7 game losing streak the Skins had against the Eagles.

First, the Redskins defense had no business allowing a touchdown to this terrible Eagles offense. I am finally believing Donovan McNabb's transformation into a real throwing QB (which only truly started last season) but without a running game, no one should be getting that many passing yards. But the way the defense has been playing It should come as a surprise to NO ONE that the Eagles lone touchdown was on a long yardage play. Is it me or does Gregg Williams' defense breakdown amazingly easy when one person misses an assignment or tackle? Oh and can we do some tackling drills?

Second, the fumbles (by Cooley and Thrash) that the Redskins were lucky to recover, bother me. I guess those plays make up for the fumbles the Redskins caused but failed to recover against the Broncos and Chiefs.

Third, the running game needs some help. The past two defenses have figured them out, so can we draw up a few new plays here?

The things I like?

Special teams, except for punt returns (including the James Thrash fumble) and punt coverage inside the 20. Mark Brunell, is money throwing and running.

Finally, though, it has to be noted that even when the Redskins didn't play their best, they pulled it out in the end. And that is most certainly worth something. It is that quality that has won 3 Super Bowls for the New England Patriots. The only problem I see is that the same could be said about the Redskins back when they started 3-0. The Redskins then tanked their next two games. Hopefully this time they have learned their lesson and can pull out games against teams they should beat like the Buccaneers and Raiders.

Two Signs of the End and Nobody beats the Wiz

So here are my two "signs that the world is ending" of the day:

1. I was parking outside my apartment this evening and the Pizza Hut Delivery dude pulled up in front of me. His Toyota Corolla was adorned not only with the large plastic light-up Pizza Hut sign, but a set of four spinner wheel covers. The little fellas were spinning like crazy down low.

2. Then I come in and read about pirates (real ones that don't go "argh!") attacking a cruise ship of the coast of Somalia. Pirates? Really? Can't we come up with a new name for pirates, like sea bandits or ocean wrongdoers? Well, sea bandits still sounds as bad as pirates, but you know what I'm getting at.

So if thats true that would sucks because the Wizards just beat the Orlando Magic, 87-79. They are off to a 3-0 start, and Comcast SportsNet tells me it's their best start since 1978, which is back when they made it to consecutive NBA Finals, winning one in 1978.

Wizards at 2-0 and Jarhead

That's more like it! The Wizards beat the Knicks 86-75 at Madison Square Garden tonight. Now the Knicks, like the Toronto Raptors, aren't really supposed to do much this season, but I will happily take the win mainly because the Wizards had a terrible tendency of losing at the Garden. In fact last season, the Wizards ended their regular season with a loss in New York versus a Knicks team that had been assured of watching the playoffs from home a long time before that game. Plus, the whole world apparently wanted to see Larry Brown's debut at the Garden, so this meant a lot. (And yes there is a certain amount of sarcasm and smugness in that last sentence.)

I particularly liked the fact that the Wizarads got out to big lead (19 pts), gave up the lead (Knicks went up 1), but came back to win by 11. The Wizards of the past few years used to go up on teams early, only to lose it in the second half. So coming back from a bad third quarter to win, on the road (in New York), in a tough situation (Brown's home debut) definitely impresses me.

Alas, I didn't watch the game because I was watching Jarhead tonight.

My quick thoughts: First, it reminded me of Full Metal Jacket, especially the boot camp/drill instructor scenes. It is a pretty good movie, certainly better than the other two Persian Gulf War movies I spoke of earlier (Three Kings and Courage Under Fire), but I'll hold off on calling it great since I feel compelled to compare it to another Sam Mendes movie, American Beauty.

I think the acting is what his holding me back. Jamie Foxx did a better job than I expected as he didn't do a Denzel Washington impersonation for the entire movie. I've liked Jake Gyllenhaal ever since I saw him in The Good Girl, but I think he could have done better. For most of the movie his character was missing depth, there was just a monotony which I don't believe was intentional. Peter Sarsgaard did a good job. In fact Sarsgaard could very easily get on my "best young American actors" list, but he seems to have been typecast, at least in the roles I have seen him in. I get the feeling he is very much in real life like he is in his movie roles. Maybe he needs a starring role in a big movie, or a Tom Cruise in A Few Good Men role. (And, yes, I am probably in the minority in thinking Tom Cruise is, or at least was once, a good actor.)

NFL Top 15 and Picks

Two quick things first:

1. I would just like to point out that Michael Wilbon stated, in not such direct terms, what I said Sunday night. The Redskins came out flat (in some part due to their blowout win against the 49ers), and that things were not helped by the death of Wellington Mara. And I know, it's kind of sad of me to point that out.

2. The Wizards won their season opener up in Toronto, 99-96. Now I know that "a win is a win" especially away, but Toronto isn't exactly going to surprise anyone this year. Heck, I only know 3 players in Toronto: Jalen Rose, Chris Bosh and Charlie Villaneuva... all good guys but thats all they got. I'm just wondering if Larry Hughes could have helped keep Toronto under 90 points. Ahhh, forget it! I keep forgetting that Cleveland overpaid him, and the Wizards are better off not spending so much money to keep a team together that got swept by the Miami Heat last year. Anyways, I shouldn't complain considering it is the first game of the season and I barely watched about 5 minutes of the game.

Now on to the rest of the NFL.

So partly because of laziness and partly because I actually agreed with ESPN's week 8 NFL Power Ranking, last week I did not do my own ranking. And yes, in case you are wondering, I look at other rankings to see if any point is made about a team that I have missed. Alot of the time it helps. Sometimes, though, I find things that I think are just plain dumb. For instance, in ESPN's week 9 NFL Power Ranking apparently the Giants have the most explosive offense, even though they are 13th in total offense (1st in scoring though). I guess it doesn't matter that their supposedly weak defense has recovered 22 turnovers for the offense, making scoring much easier. Trust me, the Giants are scoring points because of those turnovers. I'll go with San Diego, Indianapolis or Cincinnati as more "explosive" thank you.

Anyways, my thoughts from last week on the teams still stand. So this week I am again forgoing the ranking and instead I am making my "Quick Picks." That is I am making picks without analyzing things, I am just going with my gut feeling:

Atlanta OVER Miami - Two words: Marcus Vick. Miami is better than 3-4 but I don't believe in Nick Saban.
Tampa Bay OVER Carolina - Pretty well matched up... so Tampa Bay at home after a bad time in San Fran. Plus Carolina just won 4 against some bad teams.
Chicago OVER New Orleans - I have no clue where they are playing and you just can't trust the Saints.
Cincinnati OVER Baltimore - Baltimore might not be able to get over barely losing to Pittsburgh.
Tennessee OVER Cleveland - I don't even want to think about this game so I'm going with the road team who is also the underdog.
Minnesota OVER Detroit - Another suckfest, I'm going wiith Minnesota because I like the crazy Vikings at home
Jacksonville OVER Houston - I refuse to go with the Texans
Kansas City OVER Oakland - I like Oakland, but not away, not in Arrowhead, and not Norv
NY Giants OVER San Francisco - I refuse to go with the Niners unless they are playing the Texans
Green Bay OVER Pittsburgh - This is my upset special of the week, since all those betting book guys have em, I think I want one too. I'll even add one of those crazy quotes that sounds plausible even though they are RETARDED: "The Packers finally pick up their first win in Lambeau this year" BTW this is probably the worst pick of em all.
San Diego OVER NY Jets - Even though I almost feel certain this will be a close game and the Chargers will find a way to lose.
Seattle OVER Arizona - Seattle is a good team, Arizona is not.
Washington OVER Philadelphia - Read my post from this past sunday for an explanation.
Indianapolis OVER New England - Looking forward to this game, and I think this is the Colts over the hump game.

So finally remember these are my Quick Picks, which means all of these picks are hunches. I'll probably read more about each team later and think "why did I ever make that pick?"

The Gang starts crumbling and J. C. Watts almost gets it.

I find it very telling that a Republican member of the Gang of 14, Senator Mike DeWine (R-Ohio), doesn't understand why Samuel Alito's confirmation would be filibustered. I thought the Gang was supposed to be moderates with open eyes and ears, who would hold off judgement until the time was right. Certainly Gang of 14 member, Senator Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), understood this when he said "it's way too early to talk about extraordinary circumstances."

I have vented in the past as to how corrupt I believe the Republican party has become in the past few years, so I haven't been too surprised by the indictments of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and former Vice President Chief of Staff Scooter Libby or the SEC investigation of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist. So I find it refreshing that Republican would admit that the Republican party has become arrogant.

J.C. Watts (former Republican Representative from Oklahoma) wrote in his column for the Las Vegas Review-Journal that "... sadly, what they say about absolute power is coming to reality in the 2005 GOP Washington. Republicans in just 10 years have developed the arrogance it took the Democrats 30 years to develop."

The sad thing is that even though he sees the arrogance, he ignores the corruption. His defense of Republicans is to tritely claim they the lesser of two evils. Watts goes on to say that in spite of the arrogance, "Republicans have a real chance to rebound simply because our Democrat friends just don't get it." He rehashes the old "Democrats want to tax you" argument apparently oblivious to the fact that Bush keeps spending money. Don't get me wrong, I believe Bush is doing the right thing in spending money for hurricane relief and health care, but bills have to get paid somehow. It is very deceptive of Watts to deride tax hikes when money is being spent and even Republicans in Congress are curious as to where the money is going to come from. Taxes and programs have already been cut, what exactly is Watts's plan?

Watts then finishes with a flurry of rhetoric stating "I believe we can still be the party of change, and we can lead." Well not to state the obvious but, It's kind of hard to be "the party of change" when you are in charge of everything. Democrats know this well considering they held the White House and both chambers of Congress in the 90s, right when J.C. Watts and the Republican Party took control of Congress.

Redskins: 4-3, so what?

It might sound like sour grapes, but I entirely believe what I am about to say: The Redskins got beat by the ghost of a dead football team owner. The game went as if it were scripted by Wellington Mara himself. And if you don't believe me, just wait until next week when the Redskins play the Eagles. If I were a betting man I would go with the Redskins and I will be ready to eat crow if I am wrong.

Every possible aspect of this game went against the Redskins: offense wasn't working, constant turnovers, defense continued to allow multiple long runs, missed tackles, questionable calls, every penalty going against them, etc. The Redskins just never had a chance: when the Redskins weren't missing a turnover (Eli Manning's fumble), they were turning the ball over, or they were being called for encroachment when it could habe been a false start penalty. In any case, as long as this acts as some sort of cleansing (ie. the Giants exposing the Redskins weaknesses), I'll take it as long as the Redskins do something about it. Remember, I didn't expect them to win this game. In my guess of 11-5 or 10-6, I figured most of their losses would come earlier in the season in weeks 2 (at Dallas), 5 (at Denver), 6 (at Kansas City), and 8 (at NYG). (The sixth loss being in week 17 at Philly) I still expect them to "hold home" and win out their home games. Doing that and beating those teams they should away, should still have them in the playoffs.

Finally, when it comes to the Giants, even though Eli Manning over and underthrowing receivers it didn't make a difference (btw, I still don't see what is so outstanding about him). And, it won't make a difference for the next two weeks considering they'll be playing the 49ers and Vikings next. And Eli can work out any problems in that time. Unlike others (Bill Simmons, for one) I'll wait to pass judgement on Eli after he has played the tough run of Philly, at Seattle, Dallas, at Philly, Kansas City, and at the Redskins.