American Idol: 10 Gentlemen left

The women, as a whole, did better than they did last week so, conversely, I hope the gentlemen don't suffer a lapse (since they were better than). Once again, this is a running commentary... I'm writing as they sing and while the judges comment.

"Ghastly, horrible, nightmare" that is how Ryan described Simon's comments. That was funny, especially coming from a guy who finally stopped saying "Seacrest Out!" this season. (Notice the ladies didn't forget to say that last night?)

Taylor - Average. Did a weird squat thing (like Kellie), and had some creepy moments. One of my favorites disappointed me... Strangely I totally agree with every judge, including Paula who "said not my favorite song choice, but you are one of my favorites."

Elliot - Great. Another one of my favorites. But he decides to break my first rule of American Idol, "Never, under any circumstances, do a Stevie Wonder song." But he totally nailed it. So now the rule is "Never, under any circumstances, do a Stevie Wonder song, unless you're name is Elliot." Once again: "Wow."

Ace - Slightly below average. Picked a rather boring song and he still creeps me out with the googly eyes when he sings. But when he's not singing he has a great personality and attitude.

Gideon - Very good. I'll be honest he surprised me. I was biased against him because he kinda creeps me out with that smile, so that's probably why I was surprised.

Kevin- Bad. He was flat for most of the song, never moved the spot he stood on and spent the entire time doing that strange shimmy. Too bad he's sticking around because he's "cute" and all those 12 year old girls who email him probably spend the entire night speed dialing his phone number. Oh and Randy and Paula are officially insane.

Sway - Below average. Dressed much better than last week, but broke rule #1. Tried too much to sound like Stevie and actually sounded like him once or twice. But at least he definitely got it right when he said "Maybe it was the wrong song choice for me." I get the feeling he might be a victim to the "popularity factor." (Being kicked off, while a less talented singer, like Kevin, stays because that singer has a "cute" or "sexy" following.)

Will - Average. Looks like an "Adam" to me (But, I don't know why that's important). He definitely hit that first "Laaaady" but he's missing something. Again, I agree with Paula: Bland. But as I pointed out yesterday, this early in the - .

Bucky - Above average. What's with the weird squating? He's got a decent voice but there is something I don't like about him. Maybe it's that he sounded (and moved around) like Scott Stapp. Sad really...

David - Bad. Creepy smile like Gideon. The trembling voice thing is annoying. Plus crooning can definitely get you kicked off the show, since not too many people who get around to voting actually enjoy crooners. Just not a good performance which is sad because it sounds like he has a good voice.

Chris - Average. Picked a song, I abashedly admit, I like: Fuel's "Hemmorage". But he did the trembling voice thing, and sounded worse than the original (which, as everyone points out, is a bad thing). And now after hearing the judges, I think they are all insane. Simon chided some guys for sounding like karaoke, and Chris definitely sounded like karaoke... He's crazy.

And now here are my rankings from best to worst: Elliot, Gideon, Bucky,Taylor, Chris, Will, Ace, Sway, David, Kevin.

Once again, though, I'm not picking my bottom two to be the two to leave. I'm guessing Sway and David will be gone, because Kevin has a following... crap, even most of the judges love him. Ace and Will are probably in some danger, but they both should have a strong voting block for being "cute" and young, respectively.

American Idol: 10 Ladies Left

Once again I miss the beginning of American Idol, but this time I only miss the intro of the first singer, Katharine. I was able to watch most of the performance though. I should also point out that my reviews (all except for Katharine) are written right before, while and immediately after each performance.

Anyways on to the ladies:

Katharine - Below Average. Almost bad. The judges had it right. I'm giving her credit for last week's better performance though.

Kinnik - Average. One thing mediocre idol contestants do is pick an upbeat but vocally simple song. You get people dancing and it makes your performance look good. Well, that's what Kinnik did this week. (Maybe to make up for the tough song she picked last week) She wasn't bad, but Simon said it perfectly when he said it just didn't stand out.

Lisa - Good. I have to agree with Randy... she was good but she didn't shine. I think it was better than her performance last week. Oh and I think, Lisa sounds like Paula Abdul when she talks

Melissa - Above average. Started out average but finished off better. Definitely better than last week. Another time I agree with Randy... and in the process disagree with Simon.

Heather - Below average. Picked a song because it had never been sung on AI... that's just not a good idea. (I wrote this before she started singing) Yet another girl who did better than last week, but remember i rated her at "Bad" last week. Plus she picked a song someone has already done better.... and Paula just pointed that out.

Brenna - Bad. She is this years Mikalah, someone who got through because of her personality (makes for "good tv"). But, Mikalah had some humility about herself... Brenna probably did her best, and that's why she thinks she did well. Too bad her best is bad.

Paris - Below average. Picked a bad song. Has a potentially good voice but not for pop and not for this song. I just don't seem to agree with the judges on her.

Ayla - Above average. Started off pitchy but finished strong. I entirely agree that she comes off a bit "mechanical" like Simon said.

Kellie - Below average. There is something weird about Kellie... as Cindy put's it "She's definitely haming it up." Is that "innocence" for real? Anyways she again did that weird squat thing I talked about last week and this time the judges told her to stop. (good for them) Oh and there was a part during her performance, I think she tripped up band a bit. Anyways I don't agree with Randy about it being a "hot one." In fact I totally agree with Simon: rough vocally, but the "Calamari" bit will get her votes.

Mandisa - Very good. A tough beginning and she started off roughly, but hit it well when she started belting it. (I promise I wrote that before Randy said anything) Doesn't transition well from the soft to loud. I still like her voice the best and I'm probably grading her based on that.

Oh and so things make more sense here are the rankings of my grades (from best to worst): Excellent, Great, Very Good, Good, Above average, Slightly above average, Average, Slightly below average, below average, not good, bad, very bad, terrible. The "average", "slightly above average" and "slightly below average" rankings are all close and are simply meant to differentiate between average performances.

Finally, I have to disagree with Simon when he said that you have to stand out. I think that, at this point of the competition, there are still enough contestants that you can "coast." In essence, you don't need to stand out, you just need to not suck. Of course the danger is, if no one else sucks, you're in danger of leaving.

My rankings for this weeks (this time best to worst): Mandisa, Lisa, Ayla, Melissa, Kinnik, Paris, Kellie, Heather, Katharine, and Brenna.

But I'm not kicking off the bottom two because I think Katharine should get credit for her better performance from last week (plus she has a better voice). So in my world Heather and Brenna would be going home. Like last week, Melissa and Kinnik should still be in danger.

Bravo and Project Runway

In the past few years I have grown a liking for the Bravo network. Maybe it's because I'm getting old... anyhoo.

I've alway stopped to catch at least a few minutes of "Inside the Actor's Studio" because, although he's strange, James Lipton does his homework when interviewing people. More recently though, I've liked watching Celebrity Poker Showdown, Celebrity Autobiography: In Their Own Words and Being Bobby Brown. What I never saw coming was me being so into Project Runway.

I got into it midway through this, the second, season. The first episode I remember watching was the end of the Sasha Cohen outfit episode in which Emmett was eliminated and Zulema won. But the beginning of the next episode totally hooked me. Zulema, as the winner of the previous challenge, had her pick of the models (ie. she could switch her model for any of the other models). So, straight out of Zoolander, she decides to have "walk-off." The models walk and she ends up stealing Nick's model, which of course doesn't sit well with... well, pretty much everyone. In the end karma does it's job because Zulema ends up being eliminated in that challenge.

Anyways, the season finale is coming up on March 8th and Bravo is having a "Project Runway Marathon." So, I'll probably tape the first few episodes I missed. But for now here are my thoughts about the remaining three designers.

Chloe. Nothing special. I don't particularly like her stuff because it's bland. The challenge I saw her win was a win by default. Everyone tried for something daring (except for Nick... not sure what he was doing) and she played it safe. She complained about not having experience in designing men's clothes and then makes an uninspired generic pinstripe pant and vest combo. As far as I have seen her, she (like Kara who left last week) has coasted by not being interesting but not being hideous either. She just waits for someone else to make something horrible and she's safe for another week.

Santino. Hit or miss... but I like him and when he makes a good piece, I like it alot. Santino might have been helped by his abrasive personality (since it makes for good tv) but at least he tries to be different when it comes to design.

Daniel. One of my favorites (along with Santino and Andrae) who has a good mix of daring and traditional. Should win and would make a much nicer winner then last season's Jay... who I already hate.

American Idol: 24 down to 20

Okay, so I was so confused. I thought they were getting rid of 2 girls and 2 guys and then Idol weirdly went through the ladies and told Becky she was leaving. Then they did the same thing with Bobby. I started thinking they were only getting rid of 2 contestants in all. But then Ryan Seacrest says they're coming back to eliminate another girl... just strange!

It's pretty cruel to at first tell Stevie and Patrick that they are safe and then eliminate them a few minutes later.

But anyways, I'll pat myself on the back for correctly picking the girls who got eliminated.

About the guys, I don't feel so bad about picking the two kids to leave considering I didn't watch their entire songs. But I should have known that the young guys will get votes for being young and cute (the girls don't seem to get that benefit).

I did point out that Patrick was forgettable and that is killer when you have very little else going for you. When it comes to Bobby, I'm guessing the combination of an awkward (but not horrible) performance and not being young or good looking got him eliminated.

Now I'm hoping to actually be able to see the entire guy's night next week to get a better feel of their strengths.

BTW, I still think it's weird to see the just eliminated singer giving their final audition to the world...

American Idol Top 24: The Gentlemen

I got home late tonight, so I missed most of the show. So, I'll only make full comments on the guys I saw:

Elliot Yamin - Great. The first guy I've seen and he is awesome... and the judges think so too. As Randy used to say, this guy can blow.

Bobby Bennett - Slightly below average. Picked a song befitting his name. He sung it too throaty for me though. He tries hard, but comes off awkwardly. A big guy shouldn't move around so spastically. Slow and smooth is the way... Scott Savol knew this, and someone should tell Bobby.

Ace Young - Slightly above average. I don't like how he sings like a hissing cat like John Mayer... so that makes me biased against him. Carries the tune well though and as Simon stated, picked the perfect song for himself. Sorta reminds me Constantine Maroulis but less animated and not as creepy... oh and by far a much better singer.

Taylor Hicks - Above average. I'll be honest, I'm biased toward this guy because I love the Joe Cocker/Van Morrison voice. But he really needs to stay away from the "blue eyed" jazz sound because he can definitely stray into the bland Michael McDonald-land.

Well, I only got to see the rest of the guys from the snippets, so here are my quick thoughts on them:

Although he changed his tune tonight, Randy was right in saying that the men were better than the ladies.

The Bo Bice/Rocker sound (I refuse to call Constantine a rocker because he was a low rent lounge singer with a awful "broadway" sound) has allowed for a few more "rockers" like Ace, Taylor, Bucky Covington and Chris Daughtry.

The guys who should get booted? Probably the two 16 year olds: Kevin Covais and Will Makar. And I thought Will was supposed to be good... Their age, however, might get them enough of a following to save them this week. So I'm thinking the following guys are also in danger: Joe "Sway" Penala was scary with his falsetto; Patrick Hall was forgettable; and David Radford was just weird.

America Idol Top 24: The Ladies

I missed American Idol during "Hollywood week" so this is the first I have seen these women since the auditions. And here is what I think in the order they sang:

Mandisa - Very good. She sang the Heart song about as well as one could expect, especially being first. Deserves to make it into the top 12.

Kellie Pickler - Below average, but nowhere near bad. It's hard to say anything bad about a nice girl with a hard life background. She did a weird squat thing during her song though... she needs performance coaching.

Becky O'Donohue - Very Bad. She has made it this far because of her looks and strong personality. She'll probably make it past this round because of those things.

Ayla Brown - Average. Voice-wise she's all over the place but that's probably because of the song she picked. She didn't transition all that well between the different parts of the song. She has a good voice otherwise. Needs to work on her "like-ability."

Paris Bennett - Average. Picked a tough song, but the judges seemed to like it. Much more of a performer than Ayla Brown. I don't agree with the judges though, because vocally she was only a bit better than Ayla.

Stevie Scott - Very Bad. She should have stuck to opera. In the great American Idol term: Pitchy. She's also very shy so we'll see if that makes it harder to get votes over another similarly bad singer, Becky.

Brenna Gethers - Bad. Picked a song by an artist (Stevie Wonder) NO ONE should try to re do. (and I wrote that before she started singing) Her singing was breathy and uninspiring. We'll see if the bravado helps her or not.

Heather Cox - Bad. Very stiff when she sings. Reminds me of a beauty pageant contestant. Unfortunately those people are supposed to look like plastic dolls... American Idol's are supposed to be bubbly and full of life. She probably made it through "Hollywood week" on her looks, because her voice was as unispiring as Brenna Gethers, but even worse.

Melissa McGhee - Slightly below average. Picked a song for the wrong reason. ("I absolutely love this song.") She should pick a song that features her voice well. Her voice is too raspy when she's not bolting it. Had some problems, but did better when she relaxed midway through the song.

Lisa Tucker - Average. With all the hype, I thought she would be better. Another pitchy song. Good for a 16 year old, but this isn't "16 and under American Idol." Can definitely be very good in time though. For once, I don't agree with Simon though. The judges seem to be influenced by the yelling and cheering in the audience.

Kinnik Sky - Average. Picked a tough song (one that depends too much on her voice at first) but pulled it off well. Maybe I'm looking too much for something to like because I didn't think Lisa Tucker or Paris Bennett were all that much better.

Katharine McPhee - Good. Another tough song that depends too much on her voice but she pulled it even better then Kinnik. As Randy said "maybe a couple of little spots" but that is nitpicking.

So here are my rankings from worst to best: Becky O'Donohue, Stevie Scott, Heather Cox, Brenna Gethers, Kellie Pickler, Melissa McGhee, Kinnik Sky, Ayla Brown, Lisa Tucker, Paris Bennett, Katharine McPhee, Mandisa.

Which would kick off Becky and Stevie in my world. But I get the feeling Becky's personality and looks might get her votes. In fact looks and personality might also help Heather and Brenna so that makes them plus Kellie, Melissa and Kinnik vulnerable in my view. We'll see how I do.

Oh and finally: does Ryan Seacrest not say "Seacrest Out!" anymore?

Curling and Florida

I like curling. It's an interesting game... but it's not a sport and aren't the olympics supposed to be about sporting events?

Well, let me clear that up. Curling should be called a sport when games like bowling, bocce, shuffleboard and billiards appear in the olympics. The thing is none of those games are olympic games. Even golf isn't an olympic game (according to this site it was part of the 1900 and 1904 games, but even then some competitors didn't even know it was part of the Olympic games).

I wouldn't make such a big issue about it if it weren't for the fact that NBC has featured curling every day. While in Florida last week, everytime I flipped the channels in the morning, the only Olympic coverage I could find was of curling.

And I'm not buying all the "curling is catching on" talk. It's "popular" because NBC is covering it like it's poker. But I can see why: There isn't much else to cover in the morning. The more popular sports and the ones the US excels in (hockey, ice skating, speed skating, alpine skiing, etc.) are shown in primetime. That leaves the sliding events, biathlon, nordic skiing, ski jumping, snowboarding... and curling. Except for maybe snowboarding, no one is gonna watch the rest of those events. All the other ones get pretty repetitive, pretty fast. And unless you know what goes into controlling a sled down a big sheet of ice or shooting at a target after skiing a bunch of miles, you probably won't be able to connect to it. But most of us have been on an ice rink, and most of use have bowled or played shuffleboard.

So NBC is stuck showing the amazingly exciting game of curling to fill all those hours of olympic coverage they planned. And then I get reminded daily that curling isn't a real sport and then you end up reading my rant.

Anyways, here are the pics of the Florida trip over on Flickr.

"It is nowhere written that the American Empire goes on forever."

I highly recommend the documentary film Why We Fight to everyone. I'm not sure I want, or am even able, to say how it affected me. But I can say this: If you see it, and it doesn't in the least make you think twice about the United States and where it is headed... well, congratulations: most people pay good money for treatment and drugs to put them in such a state of aloofness.

I had never heard of Eugene Jarecki, and now I am waiting for Blockbuster to deliver his previous movie The Trials of Henry Kissinger.

off the florida keys...

So we take an extended weekend in Florida and when we get back Dick Cheney is shooting people, not reporting it. Do people still not reconize this as a symptom of what is wrong with this administration?

Anywho, Florida was awesome even though it was uncommonly cold. We planned a snorkeling trip in Biscayne National Park and an overnight canoe trip in the Everglades but it ended up being too cold and too windy, so we ended up doing the touristy things in the Everglades and Biscayne and also drove down to Key West.

Not what we expected but still pretty nice. We saw a bobcat in the Everglades and had delicious crepes in Key West (who woulda thunk). Definitely want to get back to Key West though... They like to call themselves "America's Carribean Island" even though they're not in the Carribean and the name ignores the U.S. Virgin Islands. I name implying a cross between New Orleans and the Carribean would be a better term.

We also found an different fast food place down there called Pollo Tropical. They have an awesome curry mustard sauce and a guava BBQ sauce. Definitely digging their stuff.

Well, I'll have pictures up, although the day in key west went without pictures because I forgot to charge my camera...

The new Monday Night Football lineup

The quick verdict on the new Monday Night Football announcing team of Mike Tirico, Joe Theismann and Tony Kornheiser seems to be lukewarm at best. I think it certainly sounds interesting. Tirico is an average and pretty straight forward play-by-play man, a good safe, if not exciting, choice. Theismann adds good insight, but will often lapse into cliched statements like "The team that is going to win is the team that successfully makes the most plays."(I must admit: I'm somewhat biased towards Theismann, since I grew up having him as my ideal quarterback... in fact I used to think all quarterbacks wore number 7.)

What makes me think it should be interesting is Kornheiser. (I think he's done a few Redskins preseason games, but I might be imagining that.) I love PTI and think he certainly deserves a chance. I would actually like to hear Kornheiser with his PTI parter, Michael Wilbon, do color commentary for a few football games games. Anyways, Kornheiser should bring a good comedic angle to the games, without being pretentiously verbose like Dennis Miller.

Either way, I think it's a great idea to not bring over the Sunday night crew, because Mike Patrick, Paul Maguire and Theismann were just not cutting it. Patrick was overtop and the Maguire/Theismann animosity got old and uncomfortable quick. Anyways, I'm looking forward to the new crew.

Super Bowl XL: a win is a win... right?

What a dreadful suckfest that Super Bowl was. The play was terrible, the officiating was worse and the Rolling Stones looked like they were going through the motions. Even the commercials were boring.

I kept hearing about how Pittsburgh was going to play a "smash mouth" style of football. Their offense was going to run Jerome Bettis 15 times for countless yards and their defense would shut down the potent Seahawk defense. Well, Bettis ran 14 times but for a mere 43 yards and the Seahawks defense was stopped by their own ineptness and the officials. When you score 2 of 3 touchdowns on a fortunate call and a trick play, that can't possibly be called "smash mouth."

Beyond that though, the officiating reared its ugly head once again this playoff season. But this time instead of almost losing a game for the Steelers, it gave them the Super Bowl title. Bill Leavey's officiating crew spotted the Steelers a 10 (if not 14) point edge with the questionable offensive pass interference call and the Ben Roethlisberger "touchdown".

First, the pass interference call is a call 9 out of 10 officials don't make. Both players were jostling each other, so as an official you keep that flag in you're back pocket.

The Roethlisberger touchdown, however, was the most egregious. I agree with the Bill Leavey if he claims that there wasn't enough visual evidence to overturn the TD call... my problem was with the official who originally called it a TD. There is NO WAY he could have determined that the football crossed the goal line before Roethlisberger was down. In fact, that official didn't make the call until long after Roethlisberger had been down and had then moved the ball across the goal line. That official should have never called it a TD in the first place.

But, although Mike Holmgren and Seahawk fans have every right to be mad about the officiating, Seattle undoubtedly played horribly. Those missed field goals were long, but they were certainly makeable. And Jerramy Stevens dropped way too many perfectly thrown balls. Even their time management at the end of each half showed their overall ineptness. But in spite of all that, they still out-gained the Steelers in overall yards (396-339) and passing yards (259-158). They even tied them in yards per rush (5.5), and might have out-gained them in rushing yards if they weren't playing from behind most of the game. So I won't unsoundly claim, as Pittsburgh newspapers and fans have, that the Seahawks didn't play well enough to win. The Seahawks did play well enough to win because Pittsburgh didn't exactly play better. They just got the calls which kept the Seahawks from scoring, and which gave them 7 instead of 3 points.

The Steelers were undoubtedly helped to that win. But you really can't blame Pittsburgh and their fans for it. I would be unabashedly celebrating the win if it were the Redskins, just like Steeler fans are celebrating today. Although, deep down I would be questioning why the officials favored us over them... and maybe that win would ring a little hollow if I had some sense of conscious in me.

Mmmm... Football Donuts and the Super Bowl pick.

As if staying away from their delicious donuts (i think they spell it doughnuts tho) isn't hard enough, Krispy Kreme is making football shaped and decorated donuts. AND you can get them in team colors... those horrible horrible people. I'm rediculous enough to want them in Skins color.

First, just to clarify one point which I've been making: I don't think the Steelers are a bad team. In fact, I have never thought they were a bad team, the ONLY thing I ever did was questioned their offense. It doesn't detract from them when I said they have been lucky... it's just the truth: they were fortunate to not have to play against Carson Palmer and they were fortunate Nick Harper ran right at Ben Roethlisberger after Jerome Bettis' fumble.

This week they played excellent, probably their best game of the season, AND they were lucky. (Most of the time when team A blows out team b, luck is involved. That's not to say team A couldn't have won otherwise, but luck made a blowout easier.)

The Steelers were helped to a comparatively easy win as Jake Plummer reverted to his usual self. The Broncos had a chance to win it all, if they relied on the run and had Plummer pull a "Trent Dilfer" (throw for 150 yards, one touchdown and NO turnovers). Instead, Jake Plummer pulled a "Jake Plummer" (223 yards, 2 interceptions and 2 fumbles). I guess he was right when, after a win against the Redskins where he threw for 92 yards, he dismissed his performance by saying, "Later in the season, you don't remember how they came, you only remember it's a win." True, they might not remember how that win came, but they will rememeber how this loss came... both in games Plummer let his team down.

So now the Steelers move on to play the Seattle Seahawks. My initial feelings are that I would like Seattle to win, because they haven't won one and the Steelers have won 4. But, my pick is:

Pittsburgh Steeler OVER Seattle Seahawks - This should be a close game but I get the feeling it won't be close in the end (maybe close on the scoreboard but not in reality). The Steelers should take the lead early (7-0), maybe allow a tie in 2nd period (17-17), and hit a field goal going into halftime (20-17). Then they'll come out maybe give up a TD (20-24) early in the 3rd, but make it up with 2 TD in the 3rd and 4th (34-24), and control Seattle's offense for most of the 4th quarter, maybe giving up a field goal... 34-27. Is my entirely unfounded guess.

NFL Conference Championships and the Redskins are done

So after 6 straight weeks, I finally got a Redskins pick right. The Redskins finished their season in a rather familiar way. The defense starts off well while the offense struggles, the defense finally cracks and the offense eventually starts to click but it turns out to be not enough and too late. As cliched as it sounds, it was a microcosm of the season.

I would say it was a disappointing end, but that would detract from a pretty darn good season. Although I thought the Redskins were a 10 win team back in September (In fact, I said: "Now I'm not saying the Redskins are going 11-5 this season, but I seriously don't think 10-6 is out of the question"), I was still surprised when they rattled off 5 wins at the end of the season to get into the playoffs. It was fun to say the least.

So they finished in the top 8 and did better than the Bears and Colts (at least the Skins got 1 playoff win... on the road even) and did about as well as Patriots (but the Redskins didn't get the advantage of a home playoff game). So in my book they're at least the 6th best team in the league. And I don't want to hear any talk about the 120 yards of offense in the win against the Bucs, they were heavily depleted and injured from those grueling 5 straight wins. Plus they weren't playing to rack up points, they were playing to keep a lead.

Which brings me to the addition of Al Saunders to the coaching staff. I'm hesitant because I am a strong believer in the idea of less chefs in the kitchen, but what has me believing is Joe Gibbs. I trust that he can keep everything (and everyone) in check.

Anyways more on that later... now on to the teams that remain in the Super Bowl picture:

Pittsburgh Steelers - First I need to repeat what everyone has already said: The Steelers were royally screwed by the botched instant replay call and had they lost that game, they would have every right to stab someone. Having said that... I still (and I've been saying this all year, just check the link above) question the Steeler's offense. That offense combined with a good/great defense won them the game at Indy, but the Colts were obviously not the same team that won 13 straight. They were the same team that has a history of choking in the playoffs. Plus the week before that, they got "lucky" when Carson Palmer got hurt.

Denver Broncos - The Broncos are another one of those teams that I've questioned all year. Although while I did a Top 10, I usually had them in the top 3 or 4, I still called them "not all that good." (Like when they beat the Redskins, but that was more of a response to how they played against the Skins.) But my misgivings about the Broncos aren't as much as they are about the Steelers.

Carolina Panthers - I'll admit, I have slept on the Panthers all year. I had only seen them play in highlight shows (I don't remember if I saw them in their MNF appearance), so I knew they had Steve Smith but the rest of the team seemed pedestrian. Plus, they were in a division I felt was weak because there was no clear good/great team. In fact, every team seemed just below average. So Tampa Bay and Atlanta proved to be that, but the Panthers have stepped it up. The only thing is that they've been pretty fortunate in these playoffs. The Giants (who should have been a formidable opponent) layed down for them, and then they had to go to play a weak Chicago Bears team from what was, I thought, the worst division in the NFC.

Seattle Seahawks - I saw the Seahawks and Bears play the Skins back in September, and it was CLEAR the Seahawks were a better team. The Bears defense wasn't as good as people would later say, and the Seahawks offense was about as good as billed. So although, record-wise, they started off bad, I thought they were a good team. (Actually both the Bears and Seahawks fatten up their records on weak opponents, but the Bears had a tougher time of it.)

So here are my picks:

at Denver OVER Pittsburgh - As I said, my misgivings about Denver aren't as big as they are about Pittsburgh. Everyone loves saying that Pittsburgh is the "hottest" team in the NFL because of their 6 game winning streak, but no one says in the next sentence that Denver has their own 5 game winning streak. As I have mentioned Pittsburgh, like the Panthers, have gotten lucky on the road. First Carson Palmer's leg gets broken, along with the Bengals fragile hopes and then the Colts choke away a gift from the NFL refs and then Jerome Bettis.

at Seattle OVER Carolina - I'll say it one more time... the Panthers have gotten lucky in the playoffs. And I don't mean "lucky the other team fumbled" or "lucky they won on a Hail Mary." I mean lucky their opponents haven't been playoff quality, either because of a young QB (Giants) or just not a good team in general (Bears). Seattle didn't exactly inspire me in their win against the Skins, but they moved the ball on a good defense.

Finally, the only thing that scares me about these picks? Oddly the Panthers and Steelers are better road teams then home teams... they were both 5-3 at home and 6-2 (8-2 including the playoffs) on the road. They both had the best road records in the league. But hey, Seattle and Denver were the only teams that went undefeated at home? Sounds like fun to me...

Alexander Ovechkin should win the Hart Trophy

Remember in Rocky IV when Apollo Creed fought Ivan Drago. Drago's first words in the movie were right before they fought. In a thick Russian accent, he said "I will break you." I think they need to play that clip every time they mention Alexander Ovechkin at the MCI Center.

Ovechkin had his first NHL hat trick last night, scoring all of the Capitals goals in a 3-2 overtime win against the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. He now ranks 3rd in goals and 8th in points and leads his team in both categories. Ovechkin could certainly have more assists if he had someone to assist. (There is only one other player with double digit goals: Danius Zubrus with 10).

Nothing against The Kid, Sidney Crosby, but he's not near Ovechkin. The Russian has to have Rookie of the Year (Calder Memorial Trophy) wrapped up. Now, it's just a matter of if Ovechkin deserves the NHL MVP and I, as an unabashed homer, think he does. Unfortunately, unless your team at least makes the playoffs, you probably won't be winning the Hart Trophy. But, I can hope can't I?

Where is the real Brokeback Mountain and a new view of Heath Ledger

I finally saw Brokeback Mountain and got curious as to if it really existed. I looked it up and found that someone had already researched it. To sum it up: It's not real. The author of the short story, Annie Proulx, (who btw seems a little full of herself) says the name is adapted from a place called Break Back Mountain in Wyoming, but the Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) says there aint such a thing. There is, however, a Brokenback Narrows, Creek, and Dam, a Brokenback Mountain near there doesn't seem far-fetched.

About the movie: I liked it. I thought it was a very good movie that, unfortunately, didn't live up to the hype. I had heard good things about it. Things that I was hoping weren't influenced by the controversial topic and the ensuing controversy about the movie (like the canceled screenings in Utah). Those things might have influenced the good reviews but nonetheless I thought it was par for an Ang Lee movie, good but not outstanding.

What did surprise me was the great job done by Heath Ledger. You see, when I first saw Heath Ledger it was in the modern remake of one my favorite Shakespeare plays, "Ten Things I Hate about You." (Which was based on "The Taming of the Shrew") Sadly that remake was an unabashed teen flick and Ledger overplayed it as would be expected. Then he made "The Patriot" and "A Knight's Tale" and did nothing to change my initial perception of him. So last year when I saw the previews to "Cassanova" my thoughts that he was doomed for "Ryan Phillippe" status (perpetual pretty face in teen flicks... no need to act, just look good) were reinforced.

But Ledger totally surprised me. He played the soft spoken but strong willed Ennis Del Mar convincingly. He didn't overdo the macho "I'm not a gay cowboy" angle. He was certainly not one dimensional and gave Ennis those subtle qualities which can make you forget an actor is acting. Not surprisingly, I have a new found respect for him.

2006 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Playoffs

First a few thoughts about my stupendous 1-3 record for last week. Yes I suck, but allow me to make up some excuses.

I'm fairly certain the Steelers wouldn't be chanting "We Dey!" had Carson Palmer not gotten hurt. And it wasn't just his arm... that team tried hard to convince themselves that they could win without Palmer, but once they hit some adversity they folded.

I'll admit, I slept on the Panthers. But I'm still not buying them. I think they were somewhat lucky in walloping the Giants. Tiki Barber wasn't seeing the holes he had been getting all year, and Eli Manning withered in his first playoff game. I can only hope that the Skins win and they get as fortunate against the Bears. Then the Redskins would be in Carolina for the NFC Championship. Unfortunately, my picks might reflect this hope in the reverse karma way...

Now about those chances here are two lists. First, Things I don't like the Redskins' chances on Saturday:

• The fact that the Redskins barely beat the Seahawks at FedEx Field back in October. The Skins got their revenge on Tampa, we'll see about the Seahawks...
  
• The Redskins aren't all that good on the road. Although, including last week, they are a somewhat respectable 5-4, two were come from behind 4th quarter wins (Philly and Dallas). They had problems finishing off comebacks in Denver, Kansas City and Tampa.
  
• Probably the most important point: Home teams in the divisional rounds win about 80% of the time.
  

Things I like about the Redskins' chances on Saturday:

• The Redskins barely won that game at FedEx and when you barely win, you should treat it like a loss and feel lucky. You should seriously rethink your plan and innovate. Fortunately, Gregg Williams is more than capable of this. His defense seems to do well when it has an opportunity to adjust. The Redskins did much better in their second games against the Cowboys and Giants and, in fact, they're 4-0 in rematch games.
  
• The Seahawks are overrated. They played 5 teams with winning records: losing 2 of those games (to Jacksonville and the Redskins); winning 2 games that were handed to them against Dallas and New York (both in Seattle) when Dallas' Drew Bledsoe threw a last minute interception and New York's Jay Feely missed 3 makeable field goals. And they beat a Colts team that had nothing to play for and sat their best players for most of the game.
  
• Although everyone is pointing out that the Seahawks are 8-0 at home here is a list of those opponents: Atlanta, Arizona, Houston, Dallas, St. Louis, NY Giants, San Francisco, and Indianapolis. Aside from Dallas, NY and Indy (which I just discussed) the other teams were a combined 25-55.
  
• The Skins might not have been good on the road, but the past two weeks they have come from behind and held on to leads in must win situations. Two things they were having problems with early in the mid-season.
  
• It seems like NO ONE thinks the Skins have a chance.
  

And finally to the picks:

at Seattle OVER Redskins - I can't change my tune now can I?

at Denver OVER New England - I want to be among those that think New England shouldn't be picked against, but I can't bring myself to think that. Denver is a good team especially at home. New England has been a good playoff team, but they've had most of those games at home. Anyways this is my iffy game. I'm just not sure.

at Indianapolis OVER Pittsburgh - This is my non-iffy game. I'm am too sure about this one. First, Indy beat Pittsburgh well back in November. Plus, Pittsburgh got fortunate against the Bengals. Finally, remember how I haven't been convinced by Pittsburgh all year?

at Chicago OVER Carolina - Carolina's wins against Atlanta and New York are making people believe they are the team that deserved to be on the cover of Sports Illustrated as that magazine's pick to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season. Well, I pretty sure they played in the NFC South, and had losses to New Orleans, Miami (when they were still iffy), and Tampa and Dallas (at home). That last loss? A 13-3 loss at home to the Bears.

Restaurant Week Winter 2006

It's that time of year again where things have slowed down... and Restaurant Week is here once again.

If you're not familiar with it, just click on the link. In essence, swank restaurants around the city offer pretty good full course meals at a fixed price: Lunch for $20.06 and Dinner for $30.06. Considering how much the places normally run, it's a pretty good deal.

Redskins: sweet revenge

In case you didn't already know (since it's been repeated incessantly all week) the last time the Redskins were in they playoffs they lost to Tampa Bay 14-13, missing a field goal for the win on a bad snap. The last time the Redskins played in Tampa Bay, they lost 36-35 on a 2-point conversion that wasn't. Yeah... that was a nice win. Ugly, as everyone seems to want to point out, but a win nonetheless.

And now I am worried, because the Redskins got lucky to beat the Seahawks back in September. It would definitely give the Seahawks incentive, but I'm hoping that, since few people are giving the Redskins a chance, it will give them some incentive. We can only hope...

The NFL Playoff picks

I don't know what to do. Back when I decided to pick against the Redskins for the rest of the season, I really didn't think they were going to make the playoffs. I BADLY wanted them to make it, I just thought they wouldn't. Now, I almost feel obliged to pick against them again for consistency, for karma... for whatever! Anyways, here are my picks for this weekend's playoff games:

at Tampa Bay OVER Washington - That hurts... I don't really want to say anything more about this game aside from I seriously hope to go 7-4 in the playoffs.

at New England OVER Jacksonville - I spent the entire season talking about how I liked the Jaguars even though they played a soft schedule. Now they're in the playoffs having played ONE significant opponent since mid-october, and they lost that game to the Colts. Before that they had wins against quality teams like Seattle, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, but those were almost 3 months ago. So I'm believing the New England hype even though they've only beaten two good (playoff) teams all year. ATS I would undoubtedly go with Jacksonville though.

at NY Giants OVER Carolina - I don't trust Eli Manning. And I especially don't trust him in his first playoff game. I just don't trust the Panthers even more... you know they're in the NFC South and all. True they probably got screwed by the refs against the Cowboys two weeks ago, but it should never have come to that, especially at home and when it counted.

at Cincinnati OVER Pittsburgh - I hate this pick for many reasons. For one, the Bengals go into this game following back to back regular season ending losses to Buffalo and Kansas City. They had already wrapped up the division, but they were still playing for a first round bye. So it's not like they just shut it down, like the Colts. Also they lost the last time they played the Steelers at home (It almost seems like home field isn't much of an advantage to them). But I'm going with them because of the following: First, remember how I haven't like the Steelers all year? Second, everyone is loving the Steelers because of their 4 game winning streak going in, but they've only had to play one good team (Chicago) in that span. And the last game before that streak? A home loss to Cincinnati... but that also makes me think they're looking for revenge. See now why I hate this pick?

Experimental Music: Longest Concert, ever.

I've always wanted to consider myself open-minded about most things. It really bothers me when supposedly enlightened people (Marilyn vos Savant and her equating Picasso's work to the Emperor's New Clothes always comes to mind) are quick to dismiss things they apparently don't understand. That's not to say I think of myself as "enlightened"... anyways back to the point.

So Nearing 5 years into the world's longest lasting concert, the second chord will sound soon. (just click the link if that doesn't make senses) Now I don't want to dismiss it as a gimmick, but it sure does sound like one. I wouldn't say it isn't art, but when you're notable because you're making the Guiness Book of World Records you really have to question your artistic integrity. If I wanted to make a 1000 by 1000 ft painting/mural would that make me "experimental?" I guess so, but then I don't think being called "experimental" when it comes to art is a good thing.

Peter Jackson and King Kong

I have seen two Peter Jackson movies and I am steadily growing a dislike for his work. I saw the first Lord of the Rings movie and I, unlike apparently everyone else in the world, did not look forward to watching the rest of the series. I thought the story and cinematography were excellent. But I thought the plotline was lethargic and some themes were too repetitive.

I just saw King Kong and I can say the same things about it. The movie started out promising, but it was too long. Now I don't want to ruin the movie for anyone, so I'll just explain some film ideas and explain in broad terms how King Kong failed. (I'll try not to give anything away.)

First, what most people are talking about: the movie is too long. Now there is nothing inately wrong with a 3 hour movie and in fact there are a bunch of good 3 hour movies (Lawrence of Arabia comes to mind). The problem is that it could easily be shorter, considering how long some scenes are and how many times you see a similar reaction or occurence. Jackson tries to add too many elements to the movie and in the process leaves holes in the story. If he explained everything the movie could easily be 4 or 5 hours long.

Second, and this might give something away, but I don't need to see Kong's "tender side" over and over again. I get it, the gorilla is kind when not attacked. And every "tender moment" doesn't need to be interrupted by gun shots or other kinds of attacks.

Third, and this a "rule" that all of hollywood has been breaking for awhile: just because you can do something (with special effects, etc.) it doesn't mean you SHOULD do it. I don't think I'm ruining anything when I say, there is much more special effects than the Gorilla and T-Rex that you see in the preview. And that's not exactly a good thing.

Anyways, I guess when you get down to it, I think Jackson needs a better editor. I understand that most Lord of the Ring fans appreciate the trilogy because it is fairly true to the books. But King Kong has no basis for such an extensive rendering. It seemed like he was given free reign, after (and during) the success of the Rings trilogy and now King Kong is monstrous (pun intended) production.

Redskins: 10-6 and in.

The Season: I'll be honest, 5 weeks ago I really thought the Redskins were done. As you could probably guess from my writings all year, I thought they had what it took, but I thought winning 5 in a row would be impossible. Impossible because they weren't getting calls, playing well or finishing games well. So I dismissed their chances of making the playoffs, by saying: Redskins, 5-6 and done! Well I am extremely happy to say, I was wrong!

This Game: Make no mistake about it Redskins defense won this game. Sure Clinton Portis and the offensive line ran well, but they consistently had short fields because of turnovers caused by the defense. When they had a long field to cross, the drives would sputter. Plus when they could have put it away by running the clock out, they couldn't get 10 yards. So you have to credit the defense with this win.
The offensive struggles can be attributed to the fact that the Eagles defense, although not highly ranked, was still intact and still pretty good. So my only problem was that the defense allowed the Eagles too many yards. They kept them from scoring, not so much by stopping them, but by taking the ball away. That's not something to get used to living by. It reminded me of the mid-season, you know, when they went 2-6.

Into the Playoffs: Obviously a thorough beating of the not-so-good Eagles would be a better way to enter the playoffs. But a win like this is almost as good because they had 2 rather easy wins going into this game. It's akin to a loss when you're 13-0... It makes you play harder next time because it brings you back down to earth. Hopefully the Redskins remembered to not take anyone lightly. The reason why this is almost as good is because through it all, they still won... there is no doubt, the Redskins are on a roll.

The Next Game: As I stated I would LOVE to see the Redskins play the Bucs... ask and ye shall receive, I guess. The Bucs game was the start of a 3 game losing streak. A streak in which the Redskins led in the 4th quarter of each game but couldn't hold on. Well, the Redskins have learned to keep their leads in the past 5 games and it's time for a rematch...

NFL Week 17 Picks

I know I've been writing a lot about the NFL, and not much about other things, but what can I say. I'm looking forward to a bunch of stuff (including American Idol) but considering the Redskins are involved in important games, the NFL is tops on my blogging mind.

So, two weeks ago I got to 70-36 on my picks for the season. This past week I went with my intuition and got 9-7 bringing me to 79-43 for the season. Had I actually not been so stubborn (picking against the Redskins for the rest of the season), I would have gone 10-6. Ahhh, Hindsight!

I need to go 11-4 to get to a respectable 90-47. Unfortunately, the last week is probably the most unpredictable, because at this point you have about 18 teams that have nothing to play for but "respect" and about 5 or 6 teams playing for wildcard spots or divisional titles. The only thing you can count on is that no one wants to enter the playoffs with a loss.

Anyhoo here go my crazy ideas:

NY Giants OVER at Oakland - The Giants need to win to assure themselves of the NFC East divisional title. They also don't want to start the playoffs with two straight loses. Plus, in case you don't remember, the Raiders are led by one Norval Eugene Turner... ah the irony.

at San Diego OVER Denver - A tough pick because Denver has been playing well of late, so they don't NEED to win (like the Giants). The Chargers, though, are a schizo team, and they haven't lost two in a row since the beginning of the season. Will they bookend this season with back-to-back loses? I don't think so and neither does Las Vegas, since they're 10 pt favorites. BTW, this is one of those times that picking against the spread would be easier. (obviously I would pick Denver and the points)

Baltimore OVER at Cleveland OVER Baltimore - The Ravens were told Brian Billick would be returning next season.... ahhh for schadenfreude. At least the Browns still suck.

at NY Jets OVER Buffalo - I remember saying that I wanted to pick the Jets once... well here I go.

at Atlanta OVER Carolina - If the Redskins make the playoffs, one of the two teams I would like them to play on the road is the Carolina Panthers.

at Dallas OVER St. Louis - By the time this game starts, the Cowboys will know if they are playing for playoff spot. Not that it matters because the Rams are awful.

at Green Bay OVER Seattle - Yet another spread that is being determined by the fact that the playoff team has nothing to play for. Even though I think Brett Favre is overrated, he is a gamer who will take advantage of the fact that Seattle has everything wrapped up. I can definitely see this being his last game, since he'll probably play well and it's at Lambeau.

at San Francisco OVER Houston - The Niners ruined everything for their fans last week by beating the Rams. Next year they'll be picking at #3 or #4, not even able to trade the rights to Matt Leinert. Now it's Houston's turn. My only fear is that they are so inept, they'll mess that up too.

at Indianapolis OVER Arizona - The "savvy" popular pick here is to go with Arizona. But remember what I said about not going into the playoffs with a loss. Well you certainly don't want to go in with 3 loses in a row after going 13-0. I would be very hesitant to pick Indy to win it all, if they lost this game, because they would have an entire month of loses and inactivity going into a playoff game. That just can't be good.

at Jacksonville OVER Tennessee - Jacksonville certainly doesn't need to win this game, because they can't do any better than a wild card because of the Colts. Even though they haven't really beaten anyone soundly, I still like them. They sort of remind me of the 2000 Ravens, without the hyped defense.

at Kansas City OVER Cincinnati - If San Diego (who is out of the playoffs) wins on Saturday, this game will mean nothing. I'll keep going with Kansas City at home in December.

Chicago OVER at Minnesota - A few weeks ago this game looked important. Even last week it looked promising until the Vikings lost at Baltimore. Now it may determine if Mike Tice is back in Minnesota next year.

at New England OVER Miami - Remember the whole Florida teams don't play well in cold weather? Well, as much as I like what Nick Saban has done, I still think that applies.

at Pittsburgh OVER Detroit - I like Matt Millen because he helped the Skins win a Super Bowl. Having said that, what can someone explain to me exactly what qualified him to be a team president? Deion Sanders played in NFL and went on to become a commentator.... and he wants to be a head coach, but no one is handing him the reigns to their team.

at Tampa Bay OVER New Orleans - If the Redskins make into the playoffs, the team I would love to see the Redskins play is the Tampa Bay Bucs. I mean LOVE! When you loses a game to a bad call, you want it back, bad. And that would be exactly what the Skins need.

at Philadelphia OVER Washington - Really, what can I say?

Have a happy new year!

A New Year for movies

some of the movies I am looking forward to in 2006:

Lady in the Water - M. Night Shyamalan
The Da Vinci Code
The Fantastic Mr. Fox - if it actually comes out in 2006

TV/Remakes/Sequels:

Mission Impossible III - I know Tom Cruise is insane but that didn't keep me from seeing War of the Worlds either.
Superman Returns - My childhood favorite movie returns. Just hearing the theme song in the trailer give me goosebumps.
The Pink Panther - It Doesn't actually look all that good, but I like Steve Martin.
Pirates of the Carribean II - I'm a fan of Johnny Depp but I pegged him as one of those actors who wouldn't keep coming back to the same role. But he's filming Pirates III right now.
Miami Vice - I'm not as big a fan of Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx as the rest of world (or maybe just Hollywood) is but I'll give one of my childhood TV shows a chance. I know... bad reason, but I'ld see an A-Team, Riptide and/or Cheers movie too.

Bush Drinking?

I used to watch the Late Late Show back when Craig Kilborn was host. When Kilborn left, it became stagnant and formulaic. I was interested when Craig Ferguson was named host, but it didn't seem to come out of the post-Kilborn lull (or at least it was slow in being interesting). This clip is pretty funny... so I might check it out again.
EDIT: The link is dead but thanks to Youtube we have this:

Redskins, 9-6 and not quite done yet.

I am now, for a week, a Norv Turner fan. What last week I, in essence, called impossible, is now slightly more probable. If the Redskins beat the Eagles up in Philly (can happen) and the Giants lose at Oakland (probably won't happen), the Redskins would be NFC East Champions. Probably not deserving, since champions shouldn't lose 6 of 8 straight in the middle of the season.... but hey, you can't complain about having at least one home playoff game.

I wrote yesterday that this game will mark (at least the beginning) of Joe Gibbs' second coming. I stand by it. This was a game that a Norv Turner led, or Steve Spurrier led team would have lost. In fact, either of those two teams would have probably lost last week too.

Before last year the last time I saw a Gibbs led team I was 16 years old. Pretty young, but not young enough to miss that a good football team wins games they're supposed to win and also good number of the evenly matched games. So I watched the past few years as the Redskins would have good teams, but lose the close ones and the ones they were supposed to win. But this is the difference Gibbs makes.

It even looks like the defense is starting to not just play well, but also not give up the big plays. The only touchdown given up by the Skins defense was a fluke. Eli Manning overthrew his first reciever, who fortuitously tipped it to a diving Amani Toomer. The other TD was a interception return.

The skins are gelling at the PEFECT time, a bit late but not too late. At least they control their playoff hopes... win and they're in. A little earlier and they could control their conference championship hopes. Oh well, I would rather see them win well, like this week and last week, than win a conference championship and lose in their first playoff game.

NFL Week 16 picks

Ah... Christmas. The bulk of the games are now on Saturday so I'm writing today....

Last week I went a more respectable 11-5. Not great, but not bad considering a few things. One of my misses was because of my continued picking against the Redskins. Another miss was when I "took a chance" and went with Minnesota. (I'll try not to do that again) And finally, two picks I missed (Atlanta vs. Chicago and Philadelphia vs. St. Louis) were picks were I blatantly went against my instincts saying "This time I am going against my instincts and going with the numbers." and "I'm going with the favorite and against my instincts on this one."

The only bad miss was San Diego beating Indianapolis. I should have known Marty Schottenheimer had in his team. I talk a lot of smack about Marty (I really don't want to write his last name again), but he's really not all that bad. There are definitely worse coaches in the league, it's just that Marty can make for a schizo team. (like the 2001 Redskins).

So needless to say, it's all instincts for these picks

Philadelphia OVER at Arizona - As I said earlier I went against Philly last week even though I thought they would win. Not gonna do that again...

at Carolina OVER Dallas - This is a tough one. As I wrote earlier this week, the kind of loss Dallas had is not good at the end of the year. If they were playing a bad team I could see a chance... the problem is that I don't think Carolina all that good. (remember they're in the NFC South)

at Cincinnati OVER Buffalo - I don't have anything to say except that Cincy should roll here...

at Denver OVER Oakland - I will be rooting for Norville Turner's team next week, since they will be playing the Giants. I don't think they'll win that week either, though.

Jacksonville OVER at Houston - Jacksonville looks like they play to the level of their opponent (except for the Indy game) and that is dangerous especially against another team that does that... like Houston. Houston tends to lose those games though.

at Kansas City OVER San Diego - This should be a GOOD game. San Diego really needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Plus, you always hear how the Chiefs don't lose in Arrowhead in December.

at Miami OVER Tennessee - Remember how I said that I like Nick Saban... plus the Titans seem to be in a win one, lose one cycle.

Detroit OVER at New Orleans - This is a tough game to pick if only because both of these teams stink. I would go with the home team, but they're playing in San Antonio.

Pittsburgh OVER at Cleveland - I am nothing if not stubborn, and I still don't like Pittsburgh. I think they aren't as good as their record, but they are certainly good enough to beat the Browns in Cleveland.

Indianapolis OVER at Seattle - According to Yahoo, Seattle is a 9 1/2 pt favorite over the Colts. I'm stunned. The best team, by far, in the NFL loses a game and they're giving up a touchdown AND a field goal. Granted Seattle has more to play for (they're trying to win home field advantage, which is more important considering their location) but the Colts will still want to prove last week wasn't something that could be easily duplicated.

at St. Louis OVER San Francisco - I'm going to guess that Reggie Bush will be a Niner next year.

at Tampa Bay OVER Atlanta - I just feel this downright need to point out that the NFC South is suspect. Both teams need this game but since it's in Tampa and Atlanta hasn't shown any fortitude, I'm going with Tampa.

Minnesota OVER at Baltimore - When a game comes along and one team needs a win more than another, all other things being equal, go with the team that is desperate. If the Ravens were playing any better (beating up on Green Bay doesn't count), I'ld have a problem with this pick.

Chicago OVER at Green Bay - Green Bay should shut it down since they still have a chance for the #1 pick. Even if they don't get Bush they could hope to get Matt Leinert who would surely be better than Aaron Rodgers was in Baltimore last Monday. ("Bite me in the butt" pick)

New England OVER at NY Jets - Last week I said Tom Brady has "Donovan McNabb syndrome" which sounds worse than I meant it to. Brady is certainly a very good QB, I just meant to compliment the team as whole more than put Brady down... Anyways I've got a weird feeling about this game. Don't know what it is, but I'm not willing to pick the Jets.

and Finally:

NY Giants OVER at Washington - In 2000, the Washington Redskins started the season 6-2. They had promise but hit one of those spans that a Norv Turner led team is bound to have. They followed that promising start by losing 3 of 4 by a total of 10 points. Entering Week 14 at 7-5, they NEEDED to beat the Giants at home to keep their playoff homes alive. They could only muster a single touchdown, giving up 3 field goals to lose on a freezing December day (I was there). Norv Turner was fired the next day. This game should be the test by which Joe Gibbs should be measured to his successor/predecessors.

Redskins 8-6, maybe not done but definitely not in.

The Colts loss today, and to me that practically assures them of winning the Super Bowl. Had they gone 16-0, I wouldn't have picked them to win the Super Bowl because I think there has to be much more pressure in the playoffs to win when you're "protecting" your record too.

The Redskins did to the Cowboys what the Giants did to the Skins almost 2 months ago: took advantage of home field, exposed weaknesses, and got lucky that their opponent really didn't show up. When you aren't a powerhouse, you'll probably end up having one of those kinds of games.

I mention these games because they are very similar in nature. They are setbacks which can at first mess with you, but in the end actually help you. Do you think the Colts will go into any game flat like they did against the Chargers. I assure you the Skins weren't going to go in flat in this game like they did against the Giants. And they shouldn't go in flat next week.

The main difference here is that the Colts can recover much easier. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, they had their let down game late in the season. Mediocre to good teams are affected much more by this kind of game.

The Redskins ended up beating a weakened Eagles the week after the Giants loss and then lost 3 in a row, starting with a game lost to a bad call in Tampa Bay. The Redskins were fortunate to have two weak road opponents to work up their confidence to be able to beat the Cowboys. Now they're dangerous.

Here is the amazing part: If the Redskins were to miraculously win out they would practically be assured of a playoff spot. Even more miraculous would be if they won out AND the Giants lost to the Raiders (not gonna happen really...) in the last week of the season, the Redskins would be NFC East Champions. They would tie on the first tiebreaker (1-1 Head-to-Head) but they would win the second, divisional record (Redskins would be 5-1, Giants would be 4-2). I don't see it happening, but it certainly isn't impossible.
I doubt it will happen but if the Skins win out, beating the Giants next week, and the Giants lose to the Raiders the following week, the Redskins should be

Week 15 NFL Picks

Last week I made my regular picks as well as against the spread picks. Nice idea but bad implementation, because I haven't been able to find results against the spread. Plus I stupidly made a pick against the spread (Washington vs. Arizona) when I had already gone with the underdog. So in other words, I'm not doing that again.

Anyways I went a horrendous 9-7 straight up. (I really want to find a site that has against the spread results, because I picked a lot of the underdogs ATS in games where they won.) That killed my hope of getting to 60 right before getting 30 wrong... I am now 59-31. Now I need to get two good weeks to get to 80-40. We'll see.

Since I got so many wrong, I won't talk about all of them. I will, though, talk about the comments that now sound real good or real bad.

First the bad: So... contrary to what I wrote, there is a way Miami could beat San Diego (Sheesh! I said that and then immediately picked Miami against the spread!) . Also I missed both of my "bite me in the butt" picks. That is to say, I warned about a pick but got it right anyways (if that makes any sense). I picked Detroit over Green Bay ATS, and Pittsburgh over Chicago... warning about both picks... but both were good picks (Detroit covered the 6 1/2 pt spread, and Pittsburgh killed Chicago). I felt Atlanta wouldn't beat New Orleans by 10, but they did 36-17.

The good: I said I wanted to pick the Jets, but for some reason I didn't want to pick them against the Raiders... I did pick them ATS though. I "felt" the Texans would keep it close against the Titans... and they did, losing by a 3.

Anyways, now that college football is over the NFL moves a few games to Saturday, so I gotta make a bunch of quick picks.

Denver OVER at Buffalo - Denver certainly didn't cover the 10+ pt spread at home last week against Baltimore and now they are 8 1/2 pt favorites on the road against Buffalo. This is tough because ATS I would go with Buffalo.

at New England OVER Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay has play just one AFC team on the road, and lost to a bad Jets team early this year. I still think the NFC South (and North) teams are paper tigers. I also want to see New England show that they can still win without (or with a hobbled) Tom Brady. Good QB, but has Dononvan McNabb syndrome... his team makes him look better.

at NY Giants OVER Kansas City - Since this isn't exactly a serious picking/betting thing I do, I am now instituting another reverse karma picking scheme. But instead of just picking against the Redskins, I am going to pick with the Giants and with the Cowboys no matter who they play. In all honesty, I started this about 2 weeks ago with the Giants, but went against the Cowboys last week. (The 'Boys beat the Chiefs that week... )

at Houston OVER Arizona - Houston is eventually going to even mess up the Reggie Bush Sweepstakes and win one. This should be tough for the Texan fans since they'll watch a win and Reggie Bush possibly going to the Niners. Ouch!

Carolina OVER at New Orleans - Carolina reminds me of the '99 Redskins. An okay team that beat teams they should have beaten (blowing out 1 or 2 really bad teams), split the equally matched games, and lost to better teams (but didn't get blown out in any of their losses). The big difference is that Carolina's schedule seems really weak compared to what I remember the Skins season.

Atlanta OVER at Chicago - I normally try to make picks with my gut feeling, taking into account stats, standings, etc. but trying not to make too much of it. This time I am going against my instincts and going with the numbers. Statistically, Atlanta is #10 offensively and that will be the highest ranked offense the Bears will have seen since week 3. ("Bite me in the butt" pick)

Cincinnati OVER at Detroit - There really should be no discussion here aside from the 8 pt spread seems small.

at Indianapolis OVER San Diego - Last week I talked about this game in the San Diego vs. Miami spot because I didn't think Miami had any business giving SD a game. And SD lost a game they couldn't afford to mail in, because of their next week's opponent. Plus I stubbornly picked against Indy last week, and I can't do that twice in a row.

at Jacksonville OVER San Francisco - You know the whole idea of not wanting to play a good team after they have had a bad loss. Well, Jacksonville didn't exactly "loss bad" to Indy, but I get the feeling they seriously thought they could have won that game. I REALLY want to see a playoff rematch of those two teams.

at Miami OVER NY Jets - Although I watched all of about 30 seconds of the Jets/Raiders game, I'm willing to bet the Jets' win was more of an Oakland loss. Anyways, I actually like Miami...

at Oakland OVER Cleveland - Oakland has one win (against my Skins) in their last 6 games... In other words I REALLY want to pick against them... In fact, I will... make this one: Cleveland OVER at Oakland

at Minnesota OVER Pittsburgh - Remember how I said that Pittsburgh isn't good... Well the last impressive win they had (before last weeks beating of a BAD Chicago Bears was a week 6 win over Cincinnati. I don't trust Minnesota, but hey... ya gotta take chances.

Seattle OVER at Tennessee - I think I want to pick Seattle to beat the Colts if only because I want someone to beat the Colts. (Yes, that does go against my reverse karma theory) The problem is even though I like Seattle, I just think the Colts are too good. And once again I talk about a Colt's opponent the week before they actually play them....

at St. Louis OVER Philadelphia - One of the things I don't like is knowing who is favored. And this game is a reason why. I say I don't like picking favorites over and over, but that in itself is against that belief. Anyways, I'm going with the favorite and against my instincts on this one.

Dallas OVER at Washington - Remember how I said that you don't want to go into a game against a good team after they've had a bad loss. Well that applies to opponents who are equally matched with you too. It also works in reverse... you want an equally matched team to be coming off a close win, because they might still have a lingering doubt about their last game. Well, needless to say (even though I got last weeks pick wrong) I'm glad Dallas beat Kansas City with a little help from the refs and a missed field goal by KC.

at Baltimore OVER Green Bay - Someone should have told Green Bay that if they wanted a shot at Reggie Bush, they should have missed that field goal against Detroit. Oh well, they'll have to hope someone stupidly trades the next Brett Favre to them like Atlanta did a few years ago.

Violating the Dulles Toll Road

A friend of mine once told me about how he was heading out to Charlestown, WV. He took the Dulles Toll Road part of the way. Being unfamiliar with the Toll Road he drove right through the fast lane. He didn't have a Smart Tag and, of course, all the lights and bells went off. He said he noticed it in his rearview mirror, but didn't want to stop. He figured they would send him something in the mail. Nothing ever came.

Well, shockingly, VDOT has admitted that there is nothing in place to catch people. The bells and whistles are just and only that. The camera looking thing is just for show too. So if no cop is around and the toll people don't get your license plate, you're good.

I understand the costs might not have been worth the benefits in the beginning... but why admit this now?! It's going to be about a year until they have real cameras in fall of 2006. So until then, be daring... go ahead and violate the tolls on the Dulles Toll Raod.

Redskins 7-6, and I'm not changing my tune

This weekend, the Redskins got lucky and kept their faint playoff hopes alive. They would have to win out to have a chance, but I wouldn't hold my breath considering how they played on sunday.

The passing offense was atrocious giving up 3 INT (not all were entirely Brunell's fault), but its not like the defense was all roses. They were fortunate the Cardinals didn't have a running game, because the Cards actually had a chance to win it with just a passing game.

What did impress me about the Redskins is that the defense caused and recovered fumbles. Those were the turnovers the Redskins weren't recovering early in the year. In fact, by comparison, those were the types of turnovers that keep the Giants winning games with a statistically not so good defense but an excellent number of turnover (2nd in the league).

And talking about the Giants, they got lucky in overtime against a bad Eagles team. The Cowboys also got luck against the Chiefs, getting an extra set of downs from hthe refs and then the Cheifs missed a makeable game tying field goal. So I guess the good luck was running rampant in the NFC East (except of course for the Eagles).

NFL Week 14 Picks

Last week I spoke of a picking theory. The "theory" (although that is a lofty name for it) only applies to about 3 or 4 teams per year. It is a pretty basic idea predicated on, early in the season, finding two types teams: those that are really bad and will go 4-12 or worse, and those that will be really good and will go 12-4 or better. What you then do is pick against the really bad teams and with the really good teams all season.

There are usually about 5 or 6 "dogs" (bad teams) each year. (This year there is an unusually high number of dogs, about 10.) The trick is to, by week 3 or 4, figure out the "top dogs." This year there are 2 top dogs, Houston and San Francisco. That's not to say they will be the only teams to go 4-12 (or worse), but they are the only that are SURE to be that bad. (Last year the dogs were San Francisco and Miami)

On the other end, there are "winners." Winners are teams that should win at least 12 games. This year there is only one, Indianapolis. Once again, Indy might not be the only team to win 12 or more, but they are the only ones that were good enough to be assured of it. (Last year, it was Indy and New England).

As I stated in the beginning, this only helps you for about 4 teams a year, but for those games you are assured to be 48-16 or better. You, of course, have to pick the dogs to lose and winners to win in those first few weeks of the season (before you christening them as dogs and winners) to have that record. But that shouldn't be too hard because the dogs shouldn't be expect to win (and vice-versa for winners) in the first place. Granted it's sort of a passive way to pick games and it probably won't get you a prize (on it's own), but it's not terrible idea either.

This week I'm making straight picks and against the spread (ATS) picks. If I pick a favorite, I'll put my ATS pick at the end of the paragraph. If I pick an underdog, I'm obviously picking them against the spread, so I might not make mention of the spread.

Anywho, here they are:

at Carolina OVER Tampa Bay - To me the NFC South and NFC North teams are all paper tigers... especially their highly ranked defenses. The Bucs and Panthers have #2 and #4 ranked defense, but they've been playing against really bad offenses. I'll go with the veteran offense on this one. (ATS: Bucs)

at Cincinnati OVER Cleveland - The Bengals are 12 pt favorites, and I'ld still take them against the spread. (ATS: Cincy)

Kansas City OVER at Dallas - There is just no love for the Chiefs. And the last time I said that they lost to the Bills.

at Denver OVER Baltimore - Jake Plummer threw two INT last week. Are we seeing the old Plummer here? Either way, this 14 pt spread is too big. (ATS: Baltimore)

at Green Bay OVER Detroit - Here's a weird stat: Green Bay is 2-10 with the #8 defense and the #8 passing offense. This is a night game in Green Bay and there is a chance of snow. This game will be decided by what Brett Favre shows up. (ATS: Detroit) (This will be my ATS "bite me in the butt" game)

at Jacksonville OVER Indianapolis - I know I wrote all that go with the "winner" stuff, but I've decided to be bold and go with my instinct from about a month ago. The rest of the Jaguars have so many reasons to step it up, but I think the biggest (yes bigger than the Colts unbeaten season) is to prove that this team isn't dependant on Byron Leftwich.

at Minnesota OVER St. Louis - Remember how I said I would make my Minnesota will win the NFC North prediction this week? Well I'm insane for ever thinking that. I thought it because I didn't think the Bears were all that good... the Vikings might be a better team than the Bears now, but I don't see them winning more games than the Bears lose. (ATS: Minnesota)

New England OVER at Buffalo - The Pats are barely 3 1/2 pt favorites. Buffalo has yet to win on the Road, and now they're gonna be within a TD? I don't think so. (ATS: New England)

NY Giants OVER at Philadelphia - A few weeks ago, I stuningly thought this would be a close game. Remember how I'm insane. Anyways, the 9 pt line in this game is just right. (ATS: Giants)

Oakland OVER at NY Jets - I don't think I've picked the Jets once this year, and I really WANT to pick them at some point even though it would be REDICULOUS. This would be a candidate for it because you never know what the Raiders are gonna do, but the Jets just suck... (ATS: Oakland)

at Pittsburgh OVER Chicago - Remember how last week I pointed out that Chicago hasn't played a top offense since week 5 (not surprisingly their last loss)? Well their soft schedule contines against the #20 offense Steelers. But this time they're not playing an NFC softie like the teams they've been racking up wins against. The 6 1/2 pt line is too big, though. I'm thinking this game will be about 10-13. (ATS: Chicago) (This will be my straight "bite me in the butt" pick because if you remember... I don't respect the Steelers either)

at San Diego OVER Miami - The glamour beat the Colts pick, is next weeks Chargers game. San Diego is good, but they'ld have to do it at Indy. Why did i bring that up? Because there is NO WAY Miami should win this game. Another well placed spread... (ATS: Miami)

at Seattle OVER San Francisco - This is a 16 pt spread... It's too tempting, especially considering their last game was a 27-25 squeaker for Seattle. (ATS: San Fran)

at Tennessee OVER Houston - Houston is one of my "top dogs" but they've had two close losses in the past two weeks. Why that makes me think they'll keep it close on the road is kinda stupid... I still feel it though. (ATS: Houston)

at Arizona OVER Washington - I continue my stubborn streak. The interesting line here is that Arizona is #1 in passing offense, and the Skins are #10 in passing defense. I'm stunned, because the Skins defensive line gets NO penetration, making it impossible for the secondary, who has to keep cover for what seems like an eternity. This'll be interesting. (ATS: Washington)

at Atlanta OVER New Orleans - I wish I could bet on the chances of Monday Night Football playing "It's a Family Affair" by Sly and The Family Stone because of the whole Aaron Brooks and Michael Vick. This a 10 1/2 pt spread here, and the last time Atlanta beat anyone by more than 10 was back on Oct. 2nd. (ATS: New Orleans)

Shockingly, I actually like other teams besides the Redskins

• I'm not a hundred percent sure I'll be saying the same thing in a few months, but right now I like the Nats trading for Alfonso Soriano. Much like SuperNoVa over at Nats Blog, I liked Brad Wilkerson, but I'm not as dissapointed.
  
  Now I don't want to defend the trade by knocking Wilkerson, but even the NatsBlog listed Wilkerson as the 10th most valuable "thing" for the Nats. It might sound high, but it's still behind Nick Johnson's, Jose Guillen's, Ryan Church's and Brian Schneider's bats. That pretty much leaves him more valuable than Vinny Castilla's, Christian Guzman's and Jose Vidro's bat (and Vidro spent alot of the season hurt). I guess I'm willing to make that trade for a former All-Star who has home run power.
  
  
• So it's obvious that I've been quiet about the Wizards. They were playing well enough through the season, and were in a close game when they lost their first game against the Clippers. Then they blowout Seattle and beat the defending champion Spurs. So everything is looking good, and then they lose 5 in a row. Now they can't get any consistency, alternating wins and loses. They only bright spot is that their 8-9 record is good enough for second place in the Southeast Division... strangely it would be good enough for first place in the Atlantic Division but last place in the Central.
  
  
• I obviously know very little about hockey, because, contrary to what I said earlier, the Caps ARE as bad as people were saying they were going to be. They have the least number of points in the Eastern Conference, and have more wins than just three teams: Pittsburgh, Columbus and St. Louis. Strangely tickets are still going for more than $80 in the lower level.
  
  
• I certainly was spoiled back when the Terps made 3 straight bowl games and won 10 or more games in each of those season. They even went to big name bowls (Orange, Peach and Gator) and now, after two consecutive 5-6 (one win away from bowl eligiblity), I'ld settle for the Holiday or Independence Bowl.
  Now, I'm not insane enough to complain about Ralph Friedgen yet... especially considering how things have gotten harder in ACC football with the additions of Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College. I just wanted to express my sadness on the matter.
  
  
• I've also been spoiled with the Terps basketball making 9 or 10 straight NCAA tournaments... and winning it all in 2002. I know, they get a multiyear pass because of the championship, so I can stand the loss to Gonzaga. But yet another loss to George freaking Washington?! Please!
  

Spaceport, New Mexico

It appears that if you are planning on buying a ticket into space with Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic you're probably going to have to get yourself to New Mexico first. Although flights will first leave from the Californian Mojave Desert, they will, once the spaceport is finished, depart just north of Las Cruces, NM. Once I have $200,000 to throw around, I'll be on the flight...

All I want for Christmas...

Are you wondering what to get me? Well, wonder no more! Just go to Excitations.com and pick out the Skipper for a year. $3310 a little to much? Well how about the DC United experience for $1400. Still too much? Well I'ld surely invite you if you got me the Private Yacht Cruise on the Potomac for $1250.

Okay so in all honesty, Excitations is a pretty good idea if you don't know what to get for someone. Most gifts are expensive, some are a little lame ($65 Photo Safari), some are WAYoverpriced ($70 paintball and $60 rock climbing) but some are priced right ($75 segway tour, $250 skydiving). Plus I think they give you a nice wrapped box which explains the gift.

Redskins 6-6 and still done, my pick review and more.

This past week I went 11-5. (Although my pigheaded/reverse karma choice of picking against the Skins cost me a much more repectable 12-4) My season record is now 50-24, not bad but I fell like I should have done better.

In fact here is where I went wrong with my misses:

Green Bay losses to Chicago. I've never been a big Brett Favre fan, but I still believed in his Soldier Field winning streak. The Bears defense is good, but I still stand by my list of simply AWFUL offenses they have played.

Denver losses to Kansas City. I still believe in Denver, and it helps that Mike Shanahan seems to understand Jake Plummer, considering he doesn't exactly trust him when the game is on the line.

Pittsburgh losses to Cincinnati. I coped out last and picked an easy game (Skins vs. Rams) as the "bite me in the butt" pick. I should have gone with this one. Remember how I reiterated my feelings from the beginning of the season: that the Steelers aren't that good? Well Cincinnati still might not be experience enough for the rest of the league, but they are good enough against a Steelers team who just might not make it into the playoffs.

New Orleans losses to Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay barely beats a team that I am now (way too late) making the Saints a "dog." Tampa should show their true colors in the next few weeks though... but they'll probably still get one of the wild cards.

St. Louis losses to Washington. Going into the 4th quarter this past Sunday, the Redskins led a sorry St. Louis Rams, 10-7. Surprisingly, they decided to keep the lead this time and actually add to it, making the final score 24-9.


Finally here is why this win is good, but not exactly all that good:

Towards the end of every season, your team will fit into one of 3 categories: playoff teams, playoff miss teams and bad teams. (each category has it's own subcategories, but for this explanation, these will do.) Right now the Redskins are looking like a playoff miss team. Normally this wouldn't be very good because that would mean a pick in the 20s. But since the Redskins traded away their 2006 first round pick, it doesn't matter. So this year, I can truly root for them to win, so the pick (now owned by the Denver Broncos) will be later in the first round.

If they still owned the pick I would have rooted for their losing streak to continue in hopes of getting an earlier first round pick. This "rooting against" your team so they get a higher draft pick is one of the weirder parts of being a sports fan. (I made a mention of it in an earlier post and Bill Simmons write about it in his picks for week 13.) They even name the race for last place after the likely #1 pick, using terms like this year's Reggie Bush Sweepstakes and 1996's Peyton Manning Bowl featuring the NY Giants vs. NY Jets (although Manning stayed another year at Tennessee and ended up going to the Colts in 98).

Some might argue that you should never root against your team, and there is a point to that belief. Great teams can be built with a little luck and good front office decisions, the Patriots being the poster child for this. But consistantly picking in the mid teens to upper 20s doesn't leave much to look forward to.

Just ask the Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, Oakland Raiders, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles, and Pittsburgh Steelers. Each one of these teams have spent the past 10 years, barely missing the playoffs or making them only to be beaten by a better team. Some have had bad years, but not consistently. (The Eagles and Steelers have gone the farthest but have had the same results as the rest.)

I think there is something to be said about how the winners of the last 6 Super Bowls (Patriots, Buccaneers, Ravens/Browns, and Rams) have all come from being consistently bad teams to Super Bowl champions. You have to go back to 1999's Denver Broncos to see a team that won after years of being good.

So finally, having said all that, even though the Skins don't have a first round pick next year, I see them continuing this "okay/good" team rut. And that is just not good, because they'll need something drastic to get over that hump.

thoughts for the day...

• You're probably familiar with my interest in cryptozoology as well as exctinct and endangered species. So this story piqued my interest: A previously unknown mammal was photographed in Borneo recently.
  
  
• Remember the "you're getting a dell!" guy? Remember how everyone wanted to kill him? Well, I officially want to stab the guy who does the tv commerical for a game called "Riff." The guy dresses up and acts like different music genres (even dressing like Robert Palmer's famous actress video). Apparently it's some sort of music trivia dvd game... and there is not a chance I am buying it.
  
  
• There are two houses in my neighborhood I don't like. One puts moth balls in their yard and the other has these "no dogs, no children" pesticide signs which are WAY too old to be valid. The moth balls do nothing to deter my dog from sniffing up the area, and the signs would only keep a responsible pet owner (and their pet) away. But a responsible pet owner already picks up after their dog, so it's pretty useless. I wish my dog would pee or drop a deuce on their lawns, but he's already gone by that time...
  
  

New England Aquarium Penguin Story Redux

Remember the penguin story that was from a friend of a friend? Back when I wrote of it, I mentioned how it reeked of an urban legend. I even looked around and found no mention of it, even on Snopes.com. So I repeated it.

Well, eventually the aquarium got wind of the story and decided to comment. So here it is fully debunked at the Boston Globe.

NFL Week 13 Picks

Remember how I commented awhile back how Taylor Jacobs looked slow? Well obviously I don't follow the Redskins that much because I didn't remember that he had gotten hurt earlier this year. The Post has an article about how he has potential but he keeps getting hurt. In it he says that he's not entirely healed... so I'll blame that for his performance in the Oakland game. Anyways, I'm still going through with my threat of picking against the Redskins for the rest of the year.

This week the "against the Skins" pick definitely looks bad. (In fact, I'm making it my "bite me in the butt" pick. I sort of have two of these this week.) The Skins are going against a rookie QB (from Harvard) who brought the Rams back from certain defeat against the Texans last week. The Redskins have just one loss to a team with less than 7 wins this season (Oakland). The Rams have two and they're doozies... 49ers and Cardinals.

The only thing the Rams have going for them is that they are playing in St. Louis. (But, their last home game was a loss to the Cardinals.) No matter though, I am sure the Redskins will find a way to keep this game close and maybe even win it. Then all the coaches will talk about how "this is a first step", and "they keep fighting", and "they need not look past Arizona." Ugh... I can't wait.

Anyways... on to this week's picks!

Arizona OVER at San Francisco - So I have a picking theory, that I'll expound on in another post, where you pick "dogs" for the season. My season top dogs are San Francisco and Houston.

at Baltimore OVER Houston - Since you could just reread the previous pick, I'll use this space to mention that Baltimore and Arizona are secondary dogs. These games are gonna be FUN!

at Carolina OVER Atlanta - I always say that "I hate to keep going with favorites.." but there is usually a good reason why teams are favored. In this case I agree. Carolina has laid two eggs the past two weeks and won one. I only see one reason why Atlanta should beat Carolina... Michael Vick. BTW I think any game in which I pick against Michael Vick should automatically be a "bite me in the butt" pick.

Green Bay OVER at Chicago - 21st, 25th, 26th, 27th, 17th, 32nd, 23rd, and 22nd. That is the offensive ranking of Chicago's last 8 opponents. Look at their weak schedule, so trust me they're doomed for a repeat of their 2001-02 season. Plus Brett Favre is about 113-0 at Soldier Field.

Denver OVER at Kansas City - I'm beginning to believe in Denver, even though Jake Plummer is the QB and they got lucky against the Redskins or better put, the Redskins sent back the gift wrapped victory the Broncos handed them at Mile High.

at Indianapolis OVER Tennessee - I would only pick against Indy if it were away and on grass. They only have 2 more away games, Seattle and Jacksonville, and Seattle has FieldTurf. We'll see next week if I've got the mettle to pick the Jaguars next week.

Jacksonville OVER at Cleveland - This game has trap written all over it. Cleveland has it in them to beat the Jaguars, it just depends on if the Jaguars have it in them to stay in this game, and not next weeks game.

at Miami OVER Buffalo - I'm going with Miami with Nick Saban (who I'm not down on yet) at home over Buffalo who has yet to win on the road.

Minnesota OVER at Detroit - Remember how a few weeks ago I said if Minnesota beat Green Bay at Lambeau, I would pick them to win the NFC North? Well I checked Chicago's schedule and I'm catiously optimistic. After this weekend, I'm making the call.

at New England OVER NY Jets - Betting wise, I'ld take the 10 pt underdog Jets to beat the spread.

at NY Giants OVER Dallas - Eli plays well at home and Dallas doesn't seem to run the ball well enough to win on the road... In fact, aside from the Philly debacle, they haven't won on the road since September... at San Francisco!

at Pittsburgh OVER Cincinnati - Remember how at the beginning of this season, I said I didn't like Pittsburgh's offense? Well, they are currently ranked #24 (#26 passing) and I don't think it's because Ben Roethlisberger has been hurt. Anyways, I'm only picking the Steelers because they're at home and because the Bengals are too young.

at San Diego OVER Oakland - The two teams that recently beat the Redskins so I can say this with confidence: Oakland stinks and San Diego doesn't. But trust me, that doesn't say much about San Diego. (And it says even less about the Skins.)

at New Orleans OVER Tampa Bay - Remember how Tampa Bay sucks? Well, the Saints have been doing remarkably well all things considered... They've only been blown out once (at Lambeau Field 52-3). The Bucs will probably make it a close game though.

at St. Louis OVER Washington - Every so often, I think to myself: Why torture myself watching the Skins... So this is my revenge of sorts.


Seattle at OVER Philadelphia - Kinda looks like Philly over Seattle is the glamour upset pick for NFL picks around the country. And just because the Seahawks couldn't put the Giants away. But, I am not picking a team who's only victory on the road came because Kansas City shut it down after going up big in the first quarter. BTW, check out who "fueled" the Eagles comeback against the Chiefs with 11 catches for 171 yards and a TD. None other than Señor TO.